Production State-Dependent Non-Linear Behavior of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Iran
Karim
Eslamloueyan
Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Management & Social Sciences, Shiraz University (Corresponding Author)
author
Zahra
Mahzoon
MA in Economics, School of Economics, Management & Social Sciences, Shiraz University
author
text
article
2019
per
The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of non-linear behavior of exchange rate pass-through in the states of boom and recession in Iran. To the best of our knowledge, this issue has not studied for Iran. To this end, using monthly data for the period of 2002:4-2017:3, we estimate a structural threshold vector autoregressive (STVAR) model. Our endogenous variables include exchange rate, import price index, producer price index, consumer price index, industrial production index, and the interest rate. The results show that an increase in exchange rate has positive impacts on import price, producer price and consumer price indices. The impulse-response functions indicate that the reactions of the import price, the producer price and the consumer price to exchange rate shock are higher in the boom than that in the recession. Hence, our finding confirms the non-linear behavior of the exchange rate pass-through in Iran. Moreover, the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Iran is incomplete. The results show that the policymaker should take into consideration the importance of non-linear behavior of exchange rate pass-through when conducting an exchange rate policy in Iran.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
9
v.
4
no.
2019
1
32
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_86059_6306a95968283bbab7dc886161f89673.pdf
Neutrality of Money and Asymmetry in Monetary Shocks in the Iranian Economy, Considering the Size and Direction of Shocks
Tirdad
Ahmadi
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch, (Corresponding Author)
author
Ahmad
Ezzati Shourgholi
PhD Student in International Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
author
parisa
sahraiee
MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran
author
text
article
2019
per
The goal of this study is analyzing the effects of the positive and negative monetary shocks on production. Therefore, by using the seasonal data during 1990-2017, and the bounds tests, Markov’s switching model, and autoregressive models with distributive lags to test the new Keynesian theory about the asymmetric effect of shocks on production. Thus, by extending a Markov equation for growth of liquidity, positive, negative, big and small shocks were extracted. Then, using an ARDL model, the effects of small and big shocks on economic growth were analyzed. The results have shown that in the long run, both Small and Large monetary shocks (whether Positive or negative) are incapable of affecting production. This means that money is neutral in the long run. But in the short run, monetary shocks affect the production, where, the impact of negative shocks is far greater than the effect of positive shocks. With considering the size of shocks, the effect of small negative shocks and large negative shocks is more than the effect of small positive shocks and large positive shocks. On the other hand, there is an asymmetry between small and big money shocks, because small positive and negative shocks have greater effects than big positive and negative shocks on production, respectively.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
9
v.
4
no.
2019
33
59
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_86065_82128208deb197d186381a0f49556a2b.pdf
Business Cycles Synchronization and Trade Integration: Comparison of D8, European Union and South East Asia Countrie
Mehdi
Yazdani
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University (Corresponding Author)
author
Amin
Gholami
MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2019
per
In theories of international economics, the issue of business cycles synchronization and its effective factors with emphasizing on trade integration is essential for regional trade creation and development among countries. The main purpose of this paper is evaluation and comparison of the effective factors on business cycles synchronization especially the role of trade integration among Euro Union, ASEAN and D8 countries using panel data for a period of 2000-2013. The results show that trade intensity, intra-industry trade and vertical intra-industry trade as indices of trade integration have a positive and significant effect in Europe and ASEAN. Also in D8 countries, the effect of trade intensity and intra-industry trade on business cycles synchronization is positive and significant, while vertical intra-industry trade is not effective. Moreover, the comparison among economic blocks shows that intra-industry trade relative to trade intensity and vertical intra-industry trade has more effect on business cycles synchronization.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
9
v.
4
no.
2019
61
94
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_86066_ad1b835c0489bd0fe7f8cc1425c94dd2.pdf
The Impacts of Economic and Social Factors on Divorce Rate in Iran with Emphasis on Business Cycles, Women's Education and Employment
Hassan
Dargahi
Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University (Corresponding Author)
author
Mojtaba
Ghasemi
Assistant Professor of Law and Economics, Faculty of Law, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Amin
Beiranvand
Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2019
per
This paper investigates the role of socioeconomic factors in the divorce rate, with emphasis on business cycles, women’s education and employment which have ambiguous impacts in the literature. For this purpose, the empirical model is estimated by using the panel data econometrics, based on the data for 30 provinces of Iran over the period of 2007-2015. According to the results, inflation and unemployment rates have positive impacts on divorce rate and also, the business cycle effects in divorce indicate that the divorce in Iran has counter-cyclical behavior. The impacts of social factors on divorce show that educated women’s employment is positively related to marital stability through the reduction of family economic strain.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
9
v.
4
no.
2019
95
120
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_86067_6b0b269817ffb92f3b97913674ede6eb.pdf
Effective Strategies in the Realization of Economic Complexity: Implication of Interpretive-Structural Modeling
Mohammad Mahdi
َAhmadian Divkoti
Ph.D. of Science and Technology Policy, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, (Corresponding Author)
author
Hasanali
Aghajani
Professor of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran
author
Meysam
Shirkhodaei
Associate Professor of Business Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran
author
Amir Mansour
Tehranchian
Associate Professor of Business Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran
author
text
article
2019
per
An extensive literature has been presented on the knowledge-based economy and economic complexity, but no comprehensive pattern has been presented so far on the effective strategies for the realization of economic complexity and the relationships between them. In this research, in the first stage, by conducting a deep interview with 18 experts, and using the grounded theory method, nine effective strategies were identified in the realization of economic complexity. In the next stage, the relationships between the strategies and their leveling were analyzed in an integrated approach using an analytical methodology known as interpretive structural modeling (ISM). The ISM approach enables people and groups to draw the complex relationships between a large number of elements in a complex situation, and functions as a tool for regulation and orientation of the complexity in the relationships among variables. The strategies were classified at four levels using the ISM technique and a questionnaire. Based on the research results, future studies and foresight based on economic complexity smartly targeted modeling, and spatial planning of development capacities were the strategies placed in the roots of the layer.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
9
v.
4
no.
2019
121
146
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_86068_09d72f8eb7540f95586dd5930e44edc6.pdf
Determination of Economic and Social Factors on of Electricity Expenditure for Rural Households in Iran: Batch Self-Organizing Map Approach
Neda
Bayat
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Accounting Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin Branch, (Corresponding Author)
author
Vida
Varahrami
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Ali Asghar
Salem
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba`i University
author
text
article
2019
per
Today, electricity is considered as one of the countries' development infrastructure, and its consumption has been increasing over the past years. Electricity consumption in Iran is always higher than global standards. In addition, in recent years, population growth, migrating villagers to cities and improving their living standards, urban development, and industrial, agricultural and service activities have further increased electricity demand. Promoting the welfare of villagers is not enough to prevent them from migrating to cities as one of the country's problems, but a condition is required. Therefore, electricity supply and management of its consumption in the continuation of electricity supply to the villages is important due to the limited supply side and intensification due to the successive drought in the country in recent years. For this reason, in this research, the identification of socioeconomic factors affecting the functions of household electricity expenditure in different seasons of the year has been investigated. To do this, self-organized maps have been used. The results show that a total of 2 quantitative factors and 13 qualitative factors were identified in three levels of influence on the household electric power consumption of the villagers.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
9
v.
4
no.
2019
147
175
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_86069_c6ad8f9132a0f97617046c9f985c98e6.pdf