The role of energy use in industry and mine's production process
Raha Sadat
Ramezanian
Ph.D. Candidate, Ferdowsi University, Faculty Of Economics and Administrative Sciences
author
Mohammad Hosein
Mahdavi Adeli
Professor of Economics, Ferdowsi university, Faculty Of Economics and Administrative Sciences
author
text
article
2014
per
The important role of energy is neglected in neoclassical growth and production theory and usually output is taken to be a function of labor and capital alone. However one cannot underestimate the vital role of energy in the production process. In this article, by including energy use as an input in the production function, we have tried to estimate the long run energy elasticity of production in order to show how important energy use could be in the industrial production process. In doing so, by using co-integration methodology and ARDL approach, we have estimated a production function, by the aid of time series data for the period 1344-1391. Based on the result obtained from estimating the production model, we find a production elasticity of 0.48 for the energy input which is greater than the elasticity of production for capital and labor which is estimated to be 0.45 and 0.42 respectively, this finding shows the vital role of energy in the industrial production process. Result obtained from estimating the Error Correction Model (ECM) indicate that the coefficient of last period long term disequilibrium error is to be 0.21. This means that about 21 percent of long term disequilibrium error is corrected within each period. It also shows how difficult is to adjust factors of production in the short run industrial production process.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
5
v.
شماره 17-18
no.
2014
1
15
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_53440_d250fa7ab763225aa267944532aa2892.pdf
Investigate Income-tax as an automatic stabilizer and business cycles adjustment with Wavelet spectrum analysis approach
Vida
Varahrami
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University.
author
Keyvan
Shahab Lavasani
Ph.D. candidate, Tehran University, Department Of Economics
author
text
article
2014
per
Generally the automatic stabilizers exist in the fiscal system so as to contribute to stabilize the cyclical fluctuations of output or business cycles adjustment. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects of automatic fiscal stabilizers on business cyclesadjustment using the structural vector autoregressive model. This paper investigates the relevance of income- tax as an automatic fiscal stabilizer in Iran economy by an empirical analysis of the role and impact thereof with regard to the main aspects of interaction between income- tax, oil price over the business cycles. In this study, cross-correlation coefficient analysis shows that: oil price and output cycles are considered as leading indicator compared with income- tax cycles. The forecast error of Variance Decomposition of GDP cycles also showed that income- tax shocks have relatively small share in explanation business cycles fluctuations. This study also showed that income- tax as an automatic fiscal stabilizer have had an asymmetric behavior on business cycles adjustment in two different sample periods.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
5
v.
شماره 17-18
no.
2014
17
57
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_53439_1aff2f74de2e51907972a784278a073f.pdf
Investigating the Existence of Co-integration Relationship in the Consumption Function
Mohammad
Noferesti
Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2014
per
Although more than 80 years are passed from the time that Keynes hypothesized that consumption is a function of disposable income, yet there is no consensus among economists on this issue. Some economists argue that consumption is a function of wealth. Recently, new macroeconomic theory, based on micro-foundations has revealed some facts that wealth is the main determinant of consumption in the long run. Those empirical studies that assumed consumption is only a function of disposable income, have failed to reach a co-integrated consumption relationship. The analysis based on newly developed theory of co-integration has revealed that consumption, income and wealth are all integrated of order one, so they can form a long run co-integrated relationship. Life Cycle hypothesis of Ando and Modigliani states that consumption of a person is related to his/her age. If this is true, ignoring the age structure of the population in the consumption function could lead to a non co-integrated relationship. This article, with the aim of finding a set of co-integrated variables for the consumption function, drives and estimates an aggregated consumption function. It is found that a co-integrated relationship could only exist if wealth and age-structure variables are included in a consumption function. Moreover, marginal propensity to consume out of disposable income is estimated to be 0.6 and 0.52 in the urban areas. These figures for the rural areas are estimated to be almost 0.7 . As far as the average propensity to consume (APC) is concerned, those who belong to the age group of 50-69 have the least APC. Results from estimating the Error Correction Models (ECM) show that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium level of consumption is relatively low , since almost 34% of disequilibrium error is adjusted in each period.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
5
v.
شماره 17-18
no.
2014
59
74
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_53438_9164a9502b3ace5768289c1e94ca536f.pdf
An Analysis of socio-Economic factors affecting The Women Employment in Iran
Abbas
Arabmzar
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Mohammad
Sadegh Alipour
Assistant Professor, Statistical Center of Iran
author
Yaser
Zare Niyakooki
M. A. in Economics, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2014
per
Women as a half of the active population, play an important and influential role in the Iranian economy. In recent decades, due to economic conditions, Employment for most of the women, notably for educated ones, has become an economic demand. Since women’s employment is a function of economic, social and population factors, focusing on one of these factors can’t reflect the reality of this subject. The purpose of this paper is to Study socio-economic factors that affect the women employment in Iran. A Logit Model and Family budget (2011) have been used. The results of this model for women, who reside in rural and urban areas , demonstrates that some factors such as the Number of employed persons in the household, Marital status, place of residence, as well as being the head of the household have a significant positive impact on women’s employment. Age as one of the important factors has a positive but non-linear effect on employment, while higher education has an adverse effect on women’s employment.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
5
v.
شماره 17-18
no.
2014
75
91
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_53437_037072f1980d50d7095def42bc6c15eb.pdf
Electronic money and its impact on the role of the Central Bank in conducting monetary policy
Alireza
Erfani
Department of Economic and Management, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
author
Zahra
Norouzi
Ph.D. Candidate, Semnan University, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences
author
text
article
2014
per
In line with technological developments in the field of information technology, the use of electronic money for transaction purposes is greatly increased. Substitution of electronic money with the notes issued by the central bank has risen the question to what extent this new phenomenon affects the central bank’s control on the money supply and the successful implementation of monetary policy. By analyzing the effects that using electronic money can have on the supply and demand for money, this article tries to assess the power of the Central Bank to control the money supply. For this purpose, we first specify a demand function for notes and coins in such a way that it contains a variable representing the increased usage of electronic money. Then we specify a money supply function (liquidity) at the time that electronic money is boosting. With the aid of co-integration methodology, both equations are estimated by ARDL method and using time series data for the period 1338 to 1391. The results show that the use of electronic money reduces the demand for notes and coins, shrinks the monetary base and limits the power of Central Bank in conducting monetary policy. On the other hand, it is seen that the money supply is expanded along with the increasing use of electronic money. This means that using electronic money reduces the power of the Central Banks to control the money supply and hence the implementation of a successful monetary policy is not feasible.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
5
v.
شماره 17-18
no.
2014
93
109
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_53436_e5ba987cc87dcb988a6166dd3a579929.pdf
Investigating the factors influencing the demand for electricity in service providing sector using Firefly and Cuckoo algorithms
Seyyed Ali
Razavi
PhD Candidate in Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
author
Mohammad Taher
Ahmadi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
author
text
article
2014
per
One of the most important components the negligence of which may cause serious bias in the estimates of production in any sector is power input. Nowadays, due the development of technology in service providing sectors and production variety, low-quality fuels have been replaced with quality energies such as electricity. The analysis of energy demand in service sector is one of the most important issues in the developing countries. Therefore the application of analytic methods for the recognition and understanding energy demand becomes important. In this article, first we will estimate the electricity demand function between 1989 and 2014 using firefly and cuckoo algorithms. Then according to performance evaluation criteria, the estimated model is used with firefly algorithm to study the factors influencing the demand for electricity in this sector. The results show that the number of users is in direct correlation with demand for electricity. Cross-price elasticity is estimated as 0.4 which indicates the slow replacement of gas with electricity. The direct relationship between the added value of service sector and electricity consumption also reveals the necessity of electricity input in service sectors. Due to the low estimated price elasticity, we can’t expect that the increase in electricity price leads to the rapid decrease of electricity consumption in this sector. The number of users as a variable has direct correlation with electricity consumption.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
5
v.
شماره 17-18
no.
2014
111
134
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_53435_d74b284a0e3ea1ad5ed15ec500b64364.pdf
Developing an Econometric Model to Simulate Ship Entrance Demand to Shahid Rejaee Port
Rasam
Moshrefi
Department of Economics, faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Zahra
Jabbari
MA in Economics, Shahid Beheshti University.
author
text
article
2014
per
Maritime transportation is the most important Iran’s trade routine with the world and Shahid Rajaee Port has the largest share of it. Trade studies generally focus on monetary values in macro level which is not directly applicable for port authorities that should handle this trade in tonnage. In this study, we have tried to develop an econometric model to relate trade in macro level to port demand in micro level. By this kind of modeling it is possible to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on port demand. In econometric estimations, ARDL technic based on seasonal time series from 1381 to the second quarter 1389 has been used and an error correction model has formed. Model behavioral equations include the non-oil exports of goods, demand for imports of goods and entrance demand functions by ship type. The results of model simulations show that a positive shock in GDP (achieving economic growth of 8 per cent) has the most important impact on absorption of non-oil ships to the port of Shahid Rajaee. Increase in oil revenues has a weak positive impact on the absorption of non-oil vessel to the port. Given the limited impact of Rial depreciation on export and negative effect on import, Rial depreciation reduces ship entrance demand to port. Finally, 10 percent improvement in port performance in servicing of incoming ships respect to competitors (reducing relative Ship Port Time), leads to 5.7% increase in absorption of bulk ships in comparison with 4.7%, 3.5% and 1.7% increase for general cargo, liquid bulk and container ships respectively. This reflects Shahid Rejaee port potential to attract more bulk vessels by performance improvement.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
5
v.
شماره 17-18
no.
2014
135
167
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_53434_3b68ec4263d849b7fe87e2a768690ab9.pdf
Tax Composition and Economic Growth in Developing Countries
Narges
Akbarpoor Roshan
Ph.D. Candidate, University of Mazandaran
author
Marzieh
Haji Karami
Ph.D. Candidate, University of Mazandaran
author
text
article
2014
per
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relation between changes in tax composition and long-run economic growth using a dataset of 37 Asian and African developing countries including Iran during the period 1972-2012. To do this, a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) procedure has been used to estimate the impacts of changes in tax component on the rate of growthof GDP per capita. Findings show that a shift from consumption and property taxes to income taxes has a negative association with economic growth. Other results are: (1) there is a strong positive relation between sales and property taxes and long-run economic growth; (2) a shift from income taxes to property taxes increases long-run economic growth more than a shift from income taxes to consumption and sales taxes; (3) value added and sales taxes have a significantly positive effect on long-run economic growth.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
5
v.
شماره 17-18
no.
2014
169
193
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_53433_12f08054dc3234682fb8ed28cb0da3ba.pdf