The Effect of Oil Wealth (Value of Proved Oil Reserves) on the Private Investment (The Case of Iran)
Mohammad Naser
Sherafat
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Seyyed Ali Hassan
Islaminezhad
Shahid Beheshti University, M.A. in Economics
author
text
article
2010
per
Although there are a lot of studies on the specification of the function of private investment in Iran, in these studies the role of oil has appeared just as its revenue and other effects of existence of oil reserves, such as providing domestic supply of energy and confidence effect about the future, on the behavior of private investors have not been considered. In this study, it is intended to consider these effects through introducing the variable of oil wealth (Value of Proved Oil Reserves). To this end, ARDL method and ECM for the period are used. In this way, by calculation of user cost of capital (UCC) in Iran, the function of private investment has been specified and estimated. Based on the results, the effects of oil wealth and non-oil GNP on the function of private investment are positive, but the effects of UCC and are negative.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
1
v.
3
no.
2010
1
18
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57554_9980ced6fe0235857adf6a18a973e7b2.pdf
Testing the Existence of Household’s Liquidity Constrint in Iran
mohammadali
cafaie
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Javad
Yarmohammadi
Shahid Behehshti University, M.A. in Economics
author
text
article
2010
per
One of the basic assumptions in the theories of cousumption is about the possibility of liquidization of future income, in order to cover up household expenses over current income, i.e. a world without liquidity constraint. However the experience of real life makes the validity of this constraint assumption dubious. Therefore, consumption theories are improper. This paper tries to examine the validity of liquidity constraint assumption in Iran and estimate the share of household facing it. We found that this constraint exists is Iran and the share of people facing it in about 16%.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
1
v.
3
no.
2010
19
38
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57553_806a93ae3023c5b4a805a9123b0a686b.pdf
Presenting an Optimal Model for Keeping the Foreign Exchange Reserves of the Country in the Central Bank by Using Fuzzy Logic
Mohammad Husain
Pourkazemi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Mohammad Naser
Sherafat
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Farshid
Gholamy
Shahid Behehshti University, M.A. in Economics
author
text
article
2010
per
Entry of Euro into the International Monetary System as a serious rival for US Dollar and the steady depreciation of the value of US Dollar relative to Euro and other foreign currencies in the past few years have caused a lot of damage for those countries which have largely kept their reserves in terms of US Dollar. Therefore, forecasting the direction of foreign exchange rates are towards which the fluctuations inclined and also the determination of an optimal basket of foreign exchange are important for these countries.
In this article, using the fuzzy Autoregressive Moving Average (AREMA), the exchange rate of Rial against five main foreign currencies, namely, US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, English Pound and Swiss Franc is Compared. As a result by applying the Variance-Average Approach, first by using 1381-1385 monthly data and then by applying the reset forecasting for the year 1386, the optimum combination of holding foreign reserves of the country's Central Bank has been estimated.
The results of the research show that first the error of Fuzzy AREMA Approach of forecasting is less the than the error of AREMA Approach. Second, based on the Variance-Average Approach, the share of US Dollar in the combination of foreign exchange reserves is decreasing and the shares of Euro and English Pound are increasing
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
1
v.
3
no.
2010
39
66
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57552_60b73ec4683a1b93e03d1e03f290f807.pdf
Estimating Monetary Damages and Loss of Life Caused by a Relatively Powerful Earthquake in Tehran and Assessing its Impact on Total Output and Economic Growth
Mohammad
Noferesti
Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Radineh
Mousavi
Shahid Beheshti University, PhD Student, in Dubai
author
text
article
2010
per
In this article, the effects of monetary damages and loss of human lives, caused by a relatively powerful earthquake in Tehran, are estimated at the level of country’s output and economic growth. The results indicate that if in 1389 a hypothetical earthquake with a 5.5 on the Richter scale would have occurred in Tehran during the day time or at night, damage caused by buildings destruction would have been around 989470 billion Rials and the death would have been 416 thousands in the day time and 541 thousands at night. Such an earthquake in 1389, would have caused output to reduce by 27400 billion Rials in 1376 constant prices. This amounts to a 5.5 percent reduction in total output relative to the case of not occuring an earthquake in that year.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
1
v.
3
no.
2010
67
84
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57551_23b9a232714d5d8f451f370526fea97d.pdf
Impact of World Bank Lending Facilities on Private Investment :the Cases of "MENA"; Lessons for Iran
Karim
Azarbaiejani
Isfahan University, Faculty Member
author
Seyed Komail
Tayebi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economics Sciences, University of Isfahan
author
Ramin
Eslami
Isfahan University, M.A. in Economics
author
text
article
2010
per
Investment and capital accumulation caused the key to economic growth in each country is considered. One of the main problems and barriers to investment in developing countries, shortages and lack of domestic financial resources is assured. Therefore, funds received from the institutions of international development at one of the available resources to finance part of the investment needs of developing countries. Some of these institutions like the World Bank for purposes such as reducing poverty and improving developing countries are working. However, these facilities may be entering the economy of these countries to adverse effects be followed. In this study, a model for private sector investment is designed to function of public sector investment, GDP, inflation and theWorld Bank Lending Facilities. The desired pattern, with 10 countries MENA field time series from 1970 to 2006 using Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) has been fitted. The results of the estimation model used here have shown that the World Bank granted credits of private sector investment was negative and decrease in private sector investment has been. The effect of public sector investment on private sector investment led to the creation Crowding in effect and the effect of changing inflation rates on changes in private sector investment has been negative sign that this effect is expected.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
1
v.
3
no.
2010
85
102
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57550_e5c6b6e7131f451b8141b3177187f1a7.pdf
The Study of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth (A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries)
Mehdi
Safdari
Sistan and Baluchestan University, Faculty Member
author
Asadollah
Alvandizadeh
Sistan and Baluchestan University, M. A. Student
author
Hamed
Shoeibi
Sistan and Baluchestan University, M. A. Student
author
text
article
2010
per
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the economic variables on the growth of selected developing and developed countries. For comparing the effect of the variables on the economic growth in the mentioned countries, a the period of 1990-2006 is selected. In order to do this, we extracted data from WDI software Panel data econometric method is used. The results show that net capital in developing countries has a positive and significant effect on the gross domestic product of the developing countries with the coefficient of 0.41 and “degree of freedom” 0.19. Other findings show that FDI in developing countries has a negative impact on economic growth and for developed countries it is positive. Also, in developed countries elasticity coefficient of labor force is very high and it implies that productivity of labor force in the production process is so high.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
1
v.
3
no.
2010
103
120
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57549_7f13f182a6e5e8ebb822ff97201961dc.pdf
Contribution of Non-oil Export on Income Gap of Iran Economy
Mohammad Gholi
Yosefi
Allameh Tabatabai University, Faculty Member
author
Asghar
Mobarak
M.A. in Economic
author
Navideh
Mohammadlu
M.A. in Economics
author
text
article
2010
per
In this paper, the Non-oil export's effect on economic growth and income gap across Iran and its industrial partners is tested using time series and panel data datasets. To this end, the ordinary least square (OLS) and generalized method of moment (GMM) are applied. Results show that total export and oil export have positive effect on Iran’s economic growth, but non-oil export is an obstacle for its economic growth and is a factor that increases its income gap. With Non-oil export basket, Iranian economy will not have gain from non-oil exports in international market. Other results show that physical and human accumulation and financial development are engines for Iranian economic growth and factors that decrease its income gap and vis-à-vis population growth and nonoccurrence between official and parallel exchange market increase income gap across Iran and its industrial partners.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
1
v.
3
no.
2010
121
141
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57548_48cb494cec35740e1c100abd6f717c4f.pdf
The Impact of Human Capital on Iranian Medium and Large Manufacturing Companies' Export
Mohsen
Pourebadollahan Covich
Tabriz University, Faculty Member
author
Parvaneh
Aminizadeh
Tabriz University, M.A. Student
author
text
article
2010
per
The role of human capital on industrial export and through that on economic growth is clear. This role is recently more highlighted in Iran by starting the rule of subsidy targeting. This paper investigates and compares the impact of human capital on the export of Iranian medium and large manufacturing companies, using a panel data set of two-digit ISIC manufacturing industries, for the period 2000-2006. For that purpose, we use the number of workers with higher education degree (as a proxy for human capital) to examine the effect of human capital on the export of Iranian medium and large manufacturing companies.
The results of the study show that human capital as well as manufacturing value added have positive and significant effects on the export of both of medium and large manufacturing companies, eventhough these effects are bigger for large companies. Also, the price indices, such as terms of trade and real exchange rate show weak or no significant effects. Therefore, any effort to expand the higher education is highly recommended.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
1
v.
3
no.
2010
143
162
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57547_0ba1955b364cdce5174a02fa784386ed.pdf