بررسی تکانه‌های قیمت نفت بر رشد اقتصادی با تأکید بر نقش سرمایه‌گذاری

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطائی

2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطائی

چکیده

تحقیق حاضر به بررسی اثر نامتقارن نوسانات قیمت نفت بر رشد اقتصادی، با استفاده از روش گشتاور‌های تعمیم یافته (GMM) در طی دوره زمانی 1992-2015 در گروه کشورهای صادرکننده نفت عضو اوپک و گروه کشورهای واردکننده نفت می‌پردازد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که تکانه‌های نفتی به صورت نامتقارن در شکل‌گیری نوسانات قیمت نفت نقش داشته و همچنین نتایج برازش الگوی تابلویی پویا نیز حاکی از آن است که در گروه کشورهای صادرکننده نفت کشش مستقیم رشد اقتصادی نسبت به نوسانات قیمتی نفت بزرگتر از یک و مثبت بوده است. در مقابل در گروه کشورهای وارد‌کننده نفت، اثر منفی مستقیم نوسانات نفت بر رشد اقتصادی کم‌کشش است و  با لحاظ اثر متقاطع سرمایه‌گذاری و کانال نااطمینانی، مجموع اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم نوسانات قیمت نفت بر رشد اقتصادی افزایش می‌یابد. در مقابل در گروه کشورهای صادرکننده نفت، عکس‌العمل نهایی رشد اقتصادی نسبت به نوسانات قیمتی نفت تغییرات زیادی نمی‌یابد که این امر حاکی از وابستگی ناچیز رشد اقتصادی گروه مذکور از قیمت نفت است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Study of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth with Emphasis on the Role of Investment

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Emame 1
  • naser seifollahi 1
  • amadeh hamed 2
  • Atefe Taklif 2
1 Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University
2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University
چکیده [English]

This study tries to examine the asymmetric effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) during the period 1992-2015 for oil Exporting Countries and oil-importing countries. The results show that oil shocks play an asymmetric role in the form of oil price fluctuations, and also the results of dynamic panel model suggest that for oil exporting countries, elasticity of economic growth to oil price fluctuations is elastic and positive. While the direct impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in oil importing countries is negative and inelastic, and by considering the effects of cross-investment and uncertainty channels, the total direct and indirect effects of oil price fluctuations on economic growth increase. In contrast for oil exporting countries, the marginal reaction of the economy to oil price fluctuations will not be great changes, which indicates economic growth has low dependence to oil prices.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Panels
  • Economic Growth
  • Investment
  • Oil
  • GMM
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