کاربرد رویکردهای احتیاطی و مرکانتیلیستی در شناسایی تعیین‌کننده‌های تغییرات ذخایر بین‌‌‌المللی در کشورهای اوپک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی دانشکده‌اقتصاد و علوم ‌سیاسی دانشگاه شهیدبهشتی

چکیده

اهمیت نقش ذخایر بین‌‌‌المللی در تأمین مالی کسری تراز پرداخت‌‌‌ها و ایجاد تعادل در بازار ارز، باعث توجه ویژه‌‌‌ی کشورهای جهان به این ذخایر طی دهه‌‌‌های اخیر شده است. از طرف دیگر برخی از ویژگی‌‌‌های اقتصادی در کشورهای گروه اوپک مانند وابستگی شدید اقتصادی به درآمدهای نفتی و عدم انعطاف‌‌‌پذیری در نظام ارزی، باعث اثرگذاری نوسان‌‌‌های قیمت نفت بر سطح ذخایر بین‌المللی در این کشورها می‌شود. بر این اساس با توجه به اهمیت نقش ذخایر بین‌‌‌المللی در اقتصاد کشورها و همچنین به دلیل محیط اقتصادی کشورهای گروه اوپک، در این مطالعه بر اساس دو رویکرد احتیاطی و مرکانتیلیستی، تعیین کننده‌‌‌های تغییرات ذخایر بین‌‌‌المللی در کشورهای گروه اوپک با استفاده از روش میانگین گروهی ترکیبی طی دوره‌‌‌ی 2016-1973 ارزیابی شده است. بر اساس نتایج، رویکردهای احتیاطی و مرکانتیلیستی تأیید می‌‌‌شوند و متغیرهای هزینه‌‌‌ی تعدیل، هزینه‌‌‌ی فرصت، عامل محرکه‌‌‌ی افزایش ذخایر، تغییرات تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، درجه‌‌‌ی باز بودن تجاری، نظام ارزی و شوک‌‌‌های مثبت و منفی قیمت نفت (استخراج شده بر اساس روش مارکف-سوئیچینگ)، به عنوان تعیین کننده‌های ذخایر بین‌المللی شناخته شدند و ضرایب این متغیرها در الگوها معنادار و علامت آن‌‌‌ها نیز موافق انتظار است

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Application of Precautionary and Mercantilism Approaches to identify the Determinants of International Reserves Changes in OPEC Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Yazdani 1
  • Hamed Pirpour 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
2 MA in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

The importance of international reserves in the financing balance of payments deficit and adjusting the foreign exchange market disequilibrium, has led to serious consideration to this topic for different countries in recent decades. On the other hand, some specific economic conditions of OPEC countries such as economic dependence to oil revenues and the lack of suitable flexibility in exchange rate regime, lead to influence of oil price volatilities on international reserves in the countries. Hence, due to the important role of international reserves in economies and also the economic situation of OPEC countries, using the precautionary and mercantilism approaches, the determinants of international reserves changes have been evaluated using Pooled Mean Group method in OPEC countries during 1973-2016. According to the results, the precautionary and mercantilism approaches have been confirmed and variables such as adjustment cost, opportunity cost, the driving factor of the increase in international reserves, GDP per capita, the degree of trade openness, exchange rate regime, positive and negative shocks of oil price (estimated using Markov-Switching model), have been known as determinants of international reserves and their coefficients are significant and consistent with theoretical expectations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • International Reserves
  • Oil Price Fluctuations
  • OPEC Countries
  • Markov-Switching
  • Pooled Mean Group

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