تاثیر شکاف تکنولوژیکی بر روابط دوجانبه‌‌‌ی تجاری ایران: رویکرد شبه‌‌‌پارامتری

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

در هر زمان نه تنها تغییرات تکنولوژیکی توابع تولید غیر مشابه بین کشورها به وجود می‌‌‌آورد، بلکه تغییرات تجارت را در طول زمان نیز باعث می‌‌‌شود. اکتشافات تکنولوژیکی در تمام کشورها صورت نمی‌گیرد و در ضمن هم‌‌‌زمان نیز به تمام کشورها گسترش و سرایت پیدا نمی‌‌‌کند. بنابراین کشورها برای تولید محصولات از تکنولوژی متفاوت استفاده می‌‌‌کنند، که این تفاوت بدون تأثیر بر روابط تجاری آنها هم نخواهد بود. در این پژوهش به تحلیل اثر ناپارامتری شکاف تکنولوژیکی بر روابط دو جانبه‌‌‌ی تجاری ایران و شرکای منتخب طی سال‌‌‌های 2015-1995 پرداخته می‌شود. در این رابطه از الگوی جاذبه‌ی شبه‌پارامتری استفاده می‌شود و برای برآورد آن نیز از نرم افزار Stata بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج تخمین الگوی شبه‌پارامتری جاذبه با استفاده از اثرات ثابت نشان می‌دهد که تفاوت حق ثبت اختراع بین شرکای تجاری به عنوان شاخص شکاف تکنولوژیکی بر روابط دوجانبه‌ی تجاری طبق انتظار به صورت ناپارامتری است. به صورتی که در مقاطعی تاثیر تفاوت حق ثبت اختراع بین دو شریک تجاری بر رابطه‌ی تجاری روندی نزولی دارد، و در قسمت‌‌های دیگر این روند شکل صعودی به خود گرفته و منجر به افزایش روابط دوجانبه‌‌‌ی تجاری بین کشور‌ها می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Technological Gap on Iran’s Bilateral Trade Relations: a Semi-parametric Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sepideh Ohadi Esfahani 1
  • Seyed Komail Tayebi 2
  • Mohammad Vaez Barzani 3
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan
چکیده [English]

At any given time, not only technological change creates non similar production functions among countries, but also it causes trade change over time. Technological explorations are not taking place in all countries and they do not spread to all countries at the same time. Therefore, countries use different technologies to produce products. In this paper, we have explained Effect of technological gap on Iran’s Trade Relations during 1995-2015. This analysis has been performed by estimating a semi-parametric gravity model and STATA is used for estimation. As expected, the estimation results of semi-parametric gravity model, which is based on a fixed effects approach, has shown that the effect of patent difference as a proxy for the technological gap on bilateral trade is significantly nonparametric. More specifically, the impact of the patent difference between the two trading partners has had a downward trend in some sub-process, while being upward in the rest of the process, in which it causes an increase in bilateral trade relations between Iran and its major trading partners.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade
  • gravity model
  • Non-parametric Analysis
  • Semi-parametric Analysis
  • Technological Gap
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