عنوان مقاله [English]
In this study, the direct and indirect effects of transportation sector investment on the creation of value-added and jobs in the economy were studied. For this purpose, after estimating the relationships using ARDL method for the period of 1959-2014, the short-run, long-run, and error correction models estimated. In long-run estimation, the production elasticity of transportation sector relative to the capital is more than twice as large as non-transport sectors. According to these results, and the finding that 1 percent increase in the total value-added leads to 0.3 percent growth in the job creation in the economy, the effect of transport sector investment on the creation of total value-added and jobs reviewed. The results of the shock scenario simulation in the transport sector investment showed that one percentage increase in this variable generated an average of 0.235% growth in the economic value-added and a 0.07% increase in the number of created jobs during the simulated period. According to the nearly 10% share of transportation on the total value-added, this shows a significant effect. Therefore, given the significant effects of transportation in the economy, this sector has the relative ability to develop direct and indirect employment from the channel of production boost.
- Ademola A. S. & Badiru, A. (2016). The impact of unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria (1981-2014). International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 9(1), 47-55.
- Akhbari, R. & Amadeh, H. (2015). Analysis of the Cointegration relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth: evidences of Iran's economy. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 15(59), 125-160 (In Persian).
- Aldonat Beyzatlar, M., Karacal, M. & Yetkiner, H. (2014). Granger-Causality between Transportation and GDP: A Panel Data Approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 63, 43–55.
- Babazadeh, M., Ghadimi, K. & Mohseni, R. (2009). Effects of Investment on Transport sector on Economic Growth of Iran. Quarterly Research Journal of Commerce, 50, 157-199 (In Persian).
- Beyzaei, S. E. (2003). Applied Principles of Transportation Economics, Samt Press (In Persian).
- Boopen S. (2006). Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa Using Dynamic Panel Estimates. The Empirical Economics Letters, 5(1), 37-52.
- Caraiani, P. (2006). Alternative Methods of Estimating the Okun Coefficient Applications for Romania. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 3(4), 82-89.
- Central Bank of Iran, Department of Statistics and Data. Economic Times Database. http://www.cbi.ir
- Daei Karimzadeh, S., Emadzadeh, M. & Kamkar, H. (2011). The Effect of Government Investment in the Transportation Sector on Economic Growth in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 3(4), 63-82 (In Persian).
- Gujarati, D. (2005), Econometric Foundations, Tehran University Press (In Persian).
- Jiang, X., He, X., Zhang, L., Qin, H. & Shao, F. (2017). Multimodal transportation infrastructure investment and regional economic development: A structural equation modeling empirical analysis in China from 1986 to 2011. Transport Policy, 54, 43-52.
- Khaksari Rafsanjani, A. & Asadi Sisakht, A. (2017). An Investigation and Comparison of Road Transport Indicators among the Provinces of Iran. International Journal of Transportation Engineering, 4(4), 275-286.
- Mahmoudi, A. (1997). Transportation Economics. Eghtesad'e Now Press (In Persian).
- Maparu, T. S. & Mazumder, T. N. (2017). Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship? Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 100, 319-336.
- National Portal for Statistics, Statistical Yearbooks and National Accounts www.amar.org
- Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. American Statistical Association, Proceeding of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, 7, 98-104.
- Petkov, B. (2008). The Labour Market and Output in the UK does Okuns Law Still Stand? , Discussion Papers: Bagarska Narodna Banka. 69.
- Pradhan, R. P. & Tapan P. B. (2013). Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach, Research in transport economics, 38(1), 139-148.
- Razavi, M. & Moshrefi, R. (2004). Dynamic Analysis of Employment in Iran's Economy (Case Study of the Law of Okun). Quarterly Journal of Iranian Economic Research, 6(18), 1-37 (In Persian).
- Sadiku, M., Ibraimi, A. & Sadiku, L. (2015). Econometric Estimation of the Relationship between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth of FYR of Macedonia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 69 – 81.
- Saidi, S., Shahbaz, M. & Akhtar, P. (2018). The long-run relationships between transport energy consumption, transport infrastructure, and economic growth in MENA countries. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 111, 78-95.
- Seifollahi, N., Emami, A., Amadeh, H. & Taklif, A. (2017). Investigating Impacts of Oil Prices on Economic Growth with Emphasis on Investment Role. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 8 (25), 149-168 (In Persian).
- Tariq M., Y., Wang, A. & Saeed, A. (2016). The impact of transportation infrastructure on economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan, Transportation Letters. The International Journal of Transportation Research, 9(2), 63-69.
- Tatoglu, F. Y. (2011). The Long and Short Run Effects between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Europe. Dogus Universitesi Dergisi, 12(1), 99-113.
- Tingi, N. Y. & Lingii, L. S. (2011). Okuns Law in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach with HodrickPrescott (HP) filter. Journal of Global Business and Economics, 2(1), 95-103.
- Zibaee, H. (2016). A Model for Predicting Investments in Iran's Economic Sectors. Journal of Planning and Budjet, 87, 23-41 (In Persian).