تأثیر نوسان‌ نرخ ارز حقیقی بر رشد بهره‌وری کل عوامل با لحاظ توسعه مالی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

بررسی و مطالعه تاثیر نوسان‌های نرخ ارز بر بهره‌وری توسط اقتصاددانان نشان از اهمیت این موضوع در ادبیات اقتصادی دارد. در این ارتباط دیدگاه‌های مختلف متضادی وجود دارد. در این مطالعه از روش برآورد داده‌های تابلویی و اثر آستانه، رابطه بین نوسان نرخ ارز و رشد بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید طی دوره زمانی 2015-1994 در 32 کشور منتخب بررسی شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که نوسان نرخ ارز حقیقی تاثیر منفی بر رشد بهره‌وری کل عوامل دارد و این رابطه‌ در کشورهای در حال توسعه قوی است. همچنین مشخص گردید که رابطه‌ی میان نوسان نرخ ارز حقیقی و رشد بهره‌وری کل عوامل به سطح توسعه‌ی مالی کشورها بستگی دارد؛ در سطوح بالای توسعه مالی، نوسان‌های نرخ ارز حقیقی تاثیری بر رشد بهره‌وری کل عوامل ندارد. اما در کشورهایی که از لحاظ توسعه مالی در سطح پایین‌ قرار دارند، نوسان نرخ ارز حقیقی تأثیر منفی بر رشد بهره‌وری کل عوامل دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect on Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Total Factor Productivity Growth, Considering Financial Development

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Talabeigi 1
  • Mojtaba Bahmani 2
  • Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee 3
1 M.A. Student in Economics, Faculty of Managemnt and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Managemnt and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
3 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Managemnt and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
چکیده [English]

Investigations of the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on productivity by economists show the importance of this debate in economic literature. There are different, and sometimes, opposite views about this matter. In the present study using panel data method, the relationships between exchange rate fluctuations and total factor productivity growth in the period of 1994 – 2015 for 33 selected countries have been investigated. The results show that the real exchange rate fluctuation has determinate effects on total factor productivity growth. In developing countries, this relationship is strong. Also, it was determined that the relationship between real exchange fluctuation and total factor productivity growth depends on level of financial development. In high level of financial development, real exchange rate fluctuation does not have any effects on factor productivity growth. Nevertheless, in the countries which are at low level of financial development, real exchange fluctuation has negative effect on factor productivity growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Threshold Effect
  • Financial Development
  • Exchange rate fluctuation
  • Factor Productivity
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