نقش اعتبار سیاست پولی بر درجه عبور نرخ ارز طی فرآیند جهانی شدن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد بین‌الملل دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه

2 دانشیار اقتصاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه (نویسنده مسئول)

10.29252/ecoj.10.1.37

چکیده

با گذشت زمان، کشورهای مختلف تحت تاثیر تغییرات اقتصادی، سیاسی، اجتماعی رخ داده در سرتاسر جهان قرار می­گیرند که آن را "جهانی شدن" نام‌گذاری کرده‌اند. فرآیند جهانی شدن موافقان و مخالفان زیادی دارد و به طور اجتناب‌ناپذیری در حال رخ دادن است. حال سؤال اصلی در حوزه عبور نرخ ارز به قیمت­های مصرف­کننده سنجش نقش اعتبار سیاست پولی بردرجه عبور نرخ ارز به قیمت­های مصرف­کننده در فرآیند جهانی شدن است. به عبارت دیگر، آیا اتخاذ یک سیاست پولی معتبر در کاهش درجه عبور نرخ ارز به قیمتهای مصرف­کننده تاثیرگذار است؟ مطالعه حاضر جهت پاسخ به سؤال مذکور، با استفاده از داده­های 32 کشور در حال توسعه و 24 کشور توسعه یافته طی دوره زمانی 1980 تا 2015 و با به کارگیری الگوی انتقال ملایم تابلویی به بررسی درجه عبور نرخ ارز به قیمت­های مصرف­کننده، تحت رژیم­های مختلف جهانی شدن با محاسبه و بکارگیری میزان اعتبار سیاست پولی کشورهای مختلف می­پردازد. نتایج مطالعه حاضر حاکی از آن است که با افزایش فرآیند جهانی شدن و انتقال از رژیم اول (رژیمی که کشورها به میزان کمتری به سمت جهانی شدن اقتصادی حرکت کرده­اند) به رژیم دوم (رژیمی که کشورها دارای سطح بالایی از جهانی شدن اقتصادی هستند)، درجه عبور نرخ ارز به قیمتهای مصرف‌کننده در کشورهای در حال توسعه و توسعه یافته (با شدت متفاوت اثر اندازه اعتبار سیاست پولی) به ترتیب افزایش و کاهش می­یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Role of Monetary Policy Credibility on the Exchange Rate Pass-through during the Process of Globalization

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ramin Rahimi 1
  • Hassan Khodavaisi 2
1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, (Corresponding Author)
چکیده [English]

Over time, countries are affected by economic, political, and social changes happening around the world. These mutually influential economic, political, and social changes among nations have called "globalization". The process of globalization has many supporters and opponents and is inevitably moving forward issue. The main question in the area of ​​the pass-through of the exchange rate to consumer prices is to measure the role of the credibility of the monetary policy on the degree of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in the process of globalization. In other words, whether a credible monetary policy is effective in reducing the pass-through of the exchange rate to consumer prices? The present study aims to answer the abovementioned question using the data of 32 developing countries and 24 developed countries during 1980 to 2015, using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model to examine the degree of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices under different globalization regimes by concentrating on the calculation and application of the credibility of the monetary policy for different countries. The results of this study indicate that with the expansion of globalization process and the transition from the first regime (a regime in which countries have moved towards economic globalization to a less extent) to the second regime (A regime in which countries have a high degree of economic globalization), the degree of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices increases and decreases in developing and developed countries (with different impacts of the degree of monetary policy credibility) respectively. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary Policy Credibility
  • Exchange Rate Pass-Through
  • Economic Globalization

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