تحلیل اثرات جهانی‌شدن بر کسری بودجه دولت‌ها: رهیافت همسان‌سازی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم ادرای و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم ادرای و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم ادرای و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان، (نویسنده مسئول)

چکیده

در فرآیند جهانی­ شدن، مناسبات مختلفی مانند توسعه روابط مالی بین کشورها را می‌توان در نظر گرفت که  ازجمله‌ی آن‌ها جهانی‌شدن مالی است. جهانی‌شدن  مالی مفهومی است که به افزایش ارتباطات جهانی از طریق گسترش جریان‌های مالی بین­المللی و سرمایه­ای اشاره دارد. بنابراین می­توان گفت هرگونه ارتباط مالی کشورها که با رویکردهای متفاوت منجر به گسترش ارتباطات جهانی شود، جهانی‌شدن مالی را توسعه می‌بخشد. این پژوهش به این موضوع پرداخته است که چگونه سیاست‌های یکپارچه­سازی مالی بر هزینه‌ها و درآمدهای دولت­های منتخب تأثیر گذاشته و برآیند این اثرات بر کسری بودجه و بدهی عمومی دولت چه اندازه است. در این راستا کسری بودجه 165 کشور عضو و غیر عضو سازمان همکاری و توسعه­ی اقتصادی (OECD) در سال 2015 از طریق رهیافت همسان­سازی (مچینگ) در ارزیابی برنامه که با استفاده از ضریب تمایل و وزن­های کرنلی اجرا گردیده، با یکدیگر مقایسه شده­اند. برای خالص کردن اثرات جهانی­شدن مالی بر بدهی عمومی  و جدا کردن تأثیر بقیه­ی متغیرها، عوامل مؤثر دیگر مانند تولید داخلی سرانه، مخارج دولت، مالیات‌ها و آزادسازی تجاری به‌عنوان مچ در نظر گرفته شده‌اند. نتایج به دست آمده بر این دلالت دارند که جهانی‌شدن مالی باعث افزایش کسری بودجه می‌گردد که از علل این تأثیر می‌توان به اجبار دولت­ها به کاهش مالیات‌ها از جمله مالیات بر سرمایه برای جلوگیری از فرار سرمایه و هم­چنین دسترسی آسان‌تر دولت‌ها به بازارهای مالی بین‌المللی برای تأمین مالی مخارج و درنتیجه اخد وام­های بیشتر اشاره کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Effects of Globalization on the Government Budget Deficit: The Matching Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Komeil Tayebi 1
  • Alireza Kamalian 2
  • Ali Sarkhosh Sara 3
  • Mostafa Mobini Dehkordi 2
1 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan
2 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan
3 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, (Corresponding Author)
چکیده [English]

In the process of globalization, various relations, such as the development of financial relations between countries can be considered as financial globalization. Financial globalization refers to the concept of increasing global communication through the expansion of international financial and capital flows. Therefore, it can be said that any financial relationship between countries, through different approaches, leading to the expansion of global communication develops financial globalization. This study focuses on how financial integration policies affect government spending and revenues, and how the outcome of these effects will impact government deficit and public debt. To this end, this paper has compered the budget deficit of 165 countries from OECD and non-OECD members in 2015 through the matching approach using the kernel weights and propensity score. To purify the effects of financial globalization on public debt and to isolate the effects of other variables, influential factors such as per capita domestic production, government spending, taxes, and trade liberalization are considered as a match. The results suggest that financial globalization has led to an increase in the budget deficit, which can be attributed to the reduction of taxes on capital to prevent capital outflow by the governments and better access to the international financial markets to finance further expenditures.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial Globalization
  • Budget Deficit
  • Government Debt
  • Matching
  • Treatment Evaluation
- Abadie, A., Drukker, D., Herr, J. L., & Imbens, G. W. (2004). Implementing matching estimators for average treatment effects in Stata. The Stata journal, 4(3), 290-311.

- Adams, S., & Sakyi, D. (2012). Globalization, Democracy, and Government Spending in Sub Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data. In Globalization and responsibility, 137-152.

- Agbeyegbe, T. D., Stotsky, J., & WoldeMariam, A. (2006). Trade Liberalization, Exchange Rate Changes, and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Asian Economics, 17(2), 261-284.

- Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1997). The Welfare State and Competitiveness. American Economic Review, 89, 921–937.

- Azimi, S.A., and Nofrasty, M. (1394). The Relationship between Government Budget Deficit and Trade Balance in Iran within the framework of a Dynamic Structural Macroeconomic Model. The Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 15 (2), 137-156 (In Persian).

- Azzimonti, M., Francisco, E., & Quadrini, V. (2011). Financial Globalization and the Raising of Public Debt, (No. 2011-03).

- Bala, B., Parameswar, N., and Cheick, W. (2013). Export Stagnation and Budget Deficits in the Peripheral EU Nations with EMU Membership. the Journal of Economic Asymmetries 10, 94–100.

- Balassone, F., Daniele F., and Stefania, Z. (2006). EMU Fiscal Indicators: A Misleading Compass. Empirica, 33(2–3), 63–87.

- Barro, R. (1979). On the Determination of the Public Debt. Journal of Political Economy, 87, 940-71.

- Bartolini, L., & Drazen, A. (1997). Capital-account Liberalization as a Signal. American Economic Review, 87 (1), 138–154.

- Baunsgaard, T., & Keen, M. (2010). Tax Revenue and (or?) Trade Liberalization. Journal of Public Economics, 94 (9-10), 563-577.

- Bretschger L, Hettich F. (2002). Globalisation, Capital Mobility and Tax Competition: Theory and Evidence for OECD Countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 18, 695-716.

- Caliendo, M., & Kopeinig, S. (2005). Some practical guidance for the implementation of propensity score matching: Discussion paper series 1588. The Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA), Bon, Germany.

- Caliendo, M., & Kopeinig, S. (2008). Some practical guidance for the implementation of propensity score matching. Journal of economic surveys, 22(1), 31-72.

- Cameron, D. R (1978). The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis. the American Political Science Review, 72(4), 1243-1261. 

- Dadgar, Y., Nazari, R. (2008). The Impact of Globalization of Trade on the Size of Government in Iran. Iranian journal of trade studies Quarterly, (48), 1-38. (In Persian).

- Dharmapala, D., & Hines Jr, J. R. (2009). Which countries become tax havens? Journal of Public Economics, 93(9-10), 1058-1068.

- Dreher, A. (2006). Does Globalization Affect Growth? Empirical Evidence from a New Index. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091-1110. 

- Epifani, P. & Gancia, G. (2009). Openness, Government Size and the Terms of Trade. Review of Economic Studies, 76, 629–668.

- Elston, J, A., Hofler, R., & Lee, J, (2011). Dividend Policy and Institutional Ownership: Empirical Evidence Using a Propensity Score Matching Estimator. Journal of Accounting and Finance, 11, 89-102.

- Filsaraei, M. (2015). Introduction to the matching method of homogenization based on orientation scores (PSM) in Financial, Economics and Accounting Research. Economic Journal, (5-6), 5-22 (In Persian).

- Frölich, M. (2007). Propensity score matching without conditional independence assumption—with an application to the gender wage gap in the United Kingdom. The Econometrics Journal, 10(2), 359-407.

- Garen J., Trask K. (2005). Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments? Another Look. Journal of Development Economics, 77, 533-551.

- Garrett, G.  (2001). Globalization and Government Spending around The World. Studies in Comparative International Development, 35(4), 3-29.

- Garrett, G. and Mitchell, D. (2001). Globalization, Government Spending and Taxation in the OECD. European Journal of Political Research, 39, 145-170.

- Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. & I. Sanz (2008). Foreign Investment, International Trade and the Size and Structure of Public Expenditures. European Journal of Political Economy, 24(1), 151–171. 

- Golkhandan, A. (2015). Globalization and the Size of Government: Testing Rodrik's Hypothesis Test. Journal of Strategic and Macro Policies, 10, 39-62 (In Persian).

- Gorji, E and Alipourian, M. (2006). The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Economic Growth in OPEC Countries. Iranian journal of trade studies Quarterly, 40, 187 -203 (In Persian).

- Gourinchas, P. O., & Jeanne, O. (2005). Capital Mobility and Reform. IMF Manuscript. Washington: International Monetary Fund.

- Irwin, T. C. (2015). Defining the Government's Debt and Deficit. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29(4), 711-732.

- Jafarisimimi, A., Karimi potanllar, S and Montazari  Shourkchali, J. (2017). Government Debt Sustainability in Iran: Evidence from a Threshold Regression Model. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Modelling, 8(30), 31-61.

- Karimi-Potanlar, S.,Ghaderi, S., Sangin-Abadi, Bahram. (2010). The effect of Tade and financial globalization on the size of government in Iran. Quarterly Journal of New Economy and Trade, 21-22, 145-164. (In Persian).

- Keshavarz Haddad, G.Reza. (2016). Micro Econometric Data and Policy Evaluation. First Edition, Tehran: Publishing Nay (In Persian).

- Kittel, B., and Winner, H. (2005). How reliable is Pooled Analysis in Political Economy? The globalization welfare state nexus revisited. European Journal of Political Research, 44 (2), 1-24.

- Kossari. (2016). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on the Budget Deficit in the Economy of Developing Countries. Fourth International Conference on Research in Management, Economics and Accounting, Berlin, Germany (In Persian).

- Milanovic, B. (2016). Global in Equality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization. Cambridge, Massachu setts: Harvard University Press.

- Nautet, M., & Van, M., L. (2011). Economic Impact of the Public Debt. Economic Review, 2, 7-19.

- Nguyen,V, C. (2012). Selection of Control Variables in Propensity Score Matching: Evidence from a Simulation Study.

- Obstfeld, M, (1998). The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12, 9-30.

- Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in The Twenty-First Century, Translated by Arthur Gold hammer. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

- Rodrik, Dani. (1998). Why do more open economies have bigger governments? Journal of political Economy, 106(5), 997-1032.

- Sadeghi, H., Samati, M & Sameti, M. (2011). The Impact of Economic Globalization on the Size of Government; Study of Asian Countries. Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, (6), 209-249 (In Persian).

- Salmani, B., Mohammadzadeh, P & Aslani Nia, N. M. (2013). The Effect of Trade Openness on the Size of Government: The Case of Developing Countries. Applied Theories of Economics, 1(1), 52-72 (In Persian).

- Sayyid Ali Akbar, S. S. (1391). The European Monetary Union: Past Successes and Current Problems. Review of Economic Issues and Policies, 1, 85-92 (In Persian).

- Shahbaz, M., Rehman, H., & Amir, N. (2010). The Impact of Trade and Financial Openness on Government Size: A Case Study of Pakistan. Journal of Quality and Technology Management, 6, 105-118. 

- Stiglitz, J. (2000). Capital Account Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability. World Development, 28(6), 1075-1086.

- Summers, L. H. (2000). International financial crises: causes, prevention, and cures. American Economic Review, 90(2), 1-16.

- Tayebi, S.K & Fakhri, M. (2010). the effects of globalization and international trade on entrepreneurship development Case Study: Countries (OECD). Journal of Entrepreneurship Development, 3 (9), 37-54.

- Tayebnia, A & Zandieh, R. (2009). The Impact of the Globalization Process on Inflation in Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 13 (88), 53-96 (In Persian).

- Todd, P. A., Briers, R. A., Ladle, R. J., & Middleton, F. (2006). Phenotype-environment matching in the shore crab (Carcinus maenas). Marine Biology, 148(6), 1357-1367.

- Wei, S. J., & Tytell, I. (2004). Does financial globalization induce better macroeconomic policies? (No. 4-84). International Monetary Fund.

- Zhao, Z. (2004). Using Matching to Estimate Treatment Effects: Data Requirements, Matching Metrics, and Monte Carlo Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86. 91-107.