A Welfare Analysis of Interactions between Government and Central Bank: The Policy Games Approach
Mina
Mohtashami
Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
author
Mohammad Ali
Ehsani
Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
author
Mahdi
Feizi
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
author
text
article
2020
per
Coordination between monetary and financial policies is essential due to the feedback effects of the policies as well as intertemporal decision-makings; As policies enforced by an institution may affect policies adopted by another entity in a destructive manner, the welfare of the society may be reduced ultimately. Therefore, to achieve the desired economic goals, appropriate institutional arrangements, and mechanism for the adequate coordination between the policy makers is required. In this study, after modeling the structural equations of the Iranian economy, the optimal rule for the monetary and fiscal policymakers, in form of the different policy games, was extracted. then, the basic equations were estimated using the data of 2005-2016 period, and their parameters were used in games simulation (in three situations: normal game, Stackelberg leadership game, as well as cooperative game). The games were simulated, and the value of the minimum losses incurred for each player and community was calculated. Comparison and analysis of the results show that the best welfare is created by the cooperation of both monetary and financial institutions. But if it is not possible to establish a coordinating institution between the two, central bank leadership is suggested as the best interaction.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
11
v.
3
no.
2020
1
31
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_100969_fba142ed409551ee8cf75a7912a2f6f7.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.184383.1390
Investigating the Impact of Economic Sanctions and Exchange Rate Uncertainty on FDI in Iran: A Fuzzy Approach
Mostafa
Shokri
Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
author
Mohamad Mehdi
Barghi,
Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
author
Mohamad Ali
Motafaker Azad
Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
author
Mohamad Reza
Salmani Bishak
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
author
text
article
2020
per
Today, foreign direct investment is an important factor in creating economic changes for all countries and especially developing countries. Therefore, considering the importance of foreign direct investment in the Iranian economy, the present study has examined the effect of economic sanctions and exchange rate uncertainty on FDI in Iran using fuzzy regression model for the period 1990-2018. The results show that high-intensity sanctions, which were mostly economic and comprehensive sanctions (such as the Central Bank and Iran oil sales sanctions), had a much deeper impact on capital inflows than low-intensity sanctions. It also shows that the main obstacle to attracting foreign direct investment in Iran is the severe sanctions, which, overshadow other factors and have greatly reduced the incentives for foreign direct investment in Iran. Also, according to other findings, exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effect on attracting foreign direct investment in Iran. This finding confirms that the exchange rate uncertainty in the Iranian economy has created an environment of uncertainty for investors to make decisions.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
11
v.
3
no.
2020
33
59
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_100970_1224fc2abc35215b88bf052db6437fc9.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.219939.1560
Revisiting the Natural Resource Curse Hypothesis Using Dynamic Simulation
Saeed
Pourmasoumi Langarudi
Research Assistant Professor and Graduate Faculty, Faculty of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA
author
text
article
2020
per
The negative correlation between economic growth and the natural resources endowment is called the "curse of resources" or "paradox of plenty" in the development economics literature. So far, many econometric studies have tested this hypothesis, but without any decisive conclusion. The main reason for this is due to the dynamic complexity of the problem. This paper presents a theoretical system dynamics model to address the fundamental question of whether natural resources endowment is a "curse" or "blessings". The model's simulation results reveal that the probability of natural resource wealth hindering economic growth, thus undermining socioeconomic development, is negligible. This probability is stronger in the short term rather than in the long run. Further, weak social and political institutions can increase the adverse effects of natural resource wealth. It is also shown that, similar to ordinary goods or personal income, revenues from resource exports follow the law of diminishing marginal utility.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
11
v.
3
no.
2020
61
92
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_100971_54eafc4d1fa279a6d6f62f2c98787e72.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.184085.1337
Decomposition of Energy Intensity in Iranian Economic Sectors with Emphasis on Scale Effect and Consumption Pattern
Zeynab
Bisadi
MA in Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
author
Ali
Faridzad
Associate Professor of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
author
Ali Asghar
Banouei
Professor of the Faculty of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran. Iran
author
text
article
2020
per
Energy has a crucial role in the economic growth and development. Meanwhile, the energy intensity index is the main index for measurement of the efficiency and productivity of energy consumption. Energy intensity index in Iran is higher than other countries and reducing the energy subsidies has not led to declining the rate of energy intensity. The importance of non-price energy policies in the process of reducing energy intensity has led to the analysis of energy intensity decomposition as a solution to identify the factors affecting the reduction of energy consumption. In this study, the energy intensity index for the period of 2001-2011 is decomposed using structural decomposition analysis into five components as energy intensity effect, technology effect, demand structure effect, consumption pattern effect and scale effect. The results show that the main effect of increasing the energy intensity is the scale effect and the lowest one is the consumption pattern effect. Furthermore, industrial sectors reveal a higher energy intensity effect.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
11
v.
3
no.
2020
93
122
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_100972_bea868a540fcf2cdc3566d2b45e26695.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.185021.1467
Openness and Inflation Rate: The Study of Selected Countries using Panel Quantile Regressions
Hassan
Daliri
Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Golestan, Gorgan, Iran
author
text
article
2020
per
Identifying the causes of inflation has always been one of the most important questions in macroeconomics. Developing world trade has led the international economics indicators to enter into inflation modeling. Accordingly, one of the variables that can affect inflation is the degree of openness. Theoretical foundations expect that openness of country to reduce the inflation rate. The amount of inflation has a significant effect on the type of impact that openness has on the inflation rate. Therefore, this study tests the above hypothesis in 4 groups of countries by using Panel Quantile Regressions method for the period 2019-1980: 1- Europe (7 countries) 2- East Asia and Pacific (10 countries) 3- Middle East and North Africa (9 countries) 4- Latin America and Caribbean (18 countries). The results of the study show that the inflation rate often decreases with openness, but this effect was closely explained to the size of inflation and the structure of the country's groups. Trade openness has had the least impact on inflation in East Asia and the Pacific and the largest impact on inflation in the Middle East and North Africa. In addition, the above results change with the change in the trade openness index, so the increasing exports will reduce the negative effect of imports on inflation.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
11
v.
3
no.
2020
123
150
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_100973_3b2627d7828e8f7316f3581a42ad64bb.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.202700.1558
Analyzing the Synchronization of Exchange Rate Cycles with Oil Price, Gold Price, and Stock Value in Iran: A Markov-Switching Model with Component Structure
Yadolah
Dadgar
Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
author
Fatemeh
Fahimifar
Ph.D. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
author
Rouhollah
Nazari
Ph.D. Student in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
author
text
article
2020
per
The correlation between the price of the foreign exchange market, Oil and Gold, markets have ever been significant for both policymakers and economic researchers as well. Recent fluctuations of markets in question in Iran inspired us to develop this article. Therefore, it is investigating the trends and related cycles of above mentioned three markets. In other words, and by using Markov-switching models, it is analyzing the cycles in the foreign exchange market, oil, and gold markets. By the way, it is applying non-parametric models to determine the correlation between the very cycles from 1991: Q1-2020: Q2. The results suggest that there is a significant and positive relationship between exchange rates and gold price. The relationship of oil price and the exchange rate is significant and negative in Iran in the same period. The exchange rate and oil price (compared to the exchange rate and gold price) are much more at the same regime. In addition, the correlation between exchange rates and oil prices is stronger than that of exchange rates and gold prices in the same periods. By applying the results of this article, Iranian policymakers can predict the trends of cycles and hence design the proper policies to fix the current fluctuations. By so doing, they can resolve the recent macro instability in the Iranian economy.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
11
v.
3
no.
2020
151
193
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_100974_30432f422b313314f3e1e6c147bb5d9b.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.202624.1542
Evaluating the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Unemployment Duration in Industrial Countries
Akbar
Zamanzadeh
Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
author
Mohammad Ali
Ehsani
Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
author
Mojtaba
Ganjali
Professor of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
author
text
article
2020
per
We investigated the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on the conditional distribution of unemployment duration in industrial countries to understand how job search time reacts to macroeconomic policies. We use data from four advanced countries, including the United States, Canada, France, and Australia, over the last two decades and apply the Bayesian quantile method to do the empirical analysis. We also employed the Bayesian panel data model with heterogeneous slopes over cross-sections. The evidence shows that monetary and fiscal policies heterogeneously affect different parts of the distribution of unemployment duration. Also, estimates show that government budget surplus is positively correlated with all quantiles of unemployment duration. In addition, nominal interest rate is negatively associated with the lower parts of the unemployment duration distribution, while this correlation is positive for high quantiles. The estimates of the heterogeneous slopes model reveal that fiscal and monetary policies are more effective in the US compared to other countries.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
11
v.
3
no.
2020
195
225
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_100976_b5c350fb7b3e40ea2321232340bc366d.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.202656.1549