Determining the Optimal Monetary Policy Rule with Respect to Home Bias in Consumption: Application of Bayesian Approach
mohamad
akbari
Institute of Humanities and Social Studies - Jahad Daneshgahi
author
mohamad javad
sharifzade
Department of Economics, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadiq University
author
text
article
2017
per
The aim of this article is to determine the optimal monetary policy rule when there is oil revenues shock by new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model through Bayesian approach with emphasis on Home Bias in Consumption. In this study, household consumption is divided into two parts; consumption of domestic goods and the consumption of the imported goods. After specifying the model, the parameters of proposed model are estimated using Bayesian methods and real data where Optimal Monetary Policy will be the policy which makes the welfare loss function minimized. The results show with the entrance of oil revenues shock, Optimal Monetary Policy is the central banks’ response to the inflation and exchange rate gap. By increasing Home Bias parameter in the model, welfare loss in all the policy rules is significantly reduced. The policy recommendations of this study are that, with exogenous shocks (in particular oil revenue shock) to the economy, in addition to inflation targeting, the exchange rate should be considered by central bank.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
29
no.
2017
1
39
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_49613_9d5305b2aa70ee9896e26d0b66ba2b1f.pdf
Evaluating the Output Losses from Currency Crises and the Role of Central Bank in Emerging Economies
Mehdi
Yazdani
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Hassan
Dargahi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Mohammad
Nikzad
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2017
per
Generally, currency crises have many consequences and costs for the countries, while an important issue is the output losses of this phenomenon. Hence, determining the factors that lead to reduce the output losses, is very important. In this study, determinants of output losses and in particular, the role of the central bank will be evaluated during currency crises. Moreover, the roles of macroeconomic variables and situation of the countries and also adopted monetary, fiscal and exchange rate polices during currency crises on output losses have been evaluated. In this regard, an econometric model with unbalanced panel data has been used for emerging market countries during 1980-2014. The results show the negative and significant effect of successful defense and positive and significant effect of unsuccessful defense of central bank. On the other hand, the positive and significant effect of non-interference and immediate depreciation on the output losses have been confirmed. However, the role of macroeconomic situation is important where total foreign reserves have negative and significant effect on output losses. Finally, the output losses can be controlled by an active monetary and exchange rate policies.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
29
no.
2017
41
65
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_49612_da24408bb2f9f37f85cbafa892a38ae1.pdf
Seasonal Variations and Prediction of Annual Non-Oil Export: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach
mohammad
noferesti
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
vida
varahrami
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Samaneh
Javaherdehi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2017
per
The aim of this paper is to specify and estimate such a model for non-oil export that allows to revise the previous predicted volume of annual non-oil export, as soon as new seasonal data for the explanatory variables are released. This cannot be achieved unless a model is constructed in such a way that annual non-oil export is set as a function of some seasonal explanatory variables. By utilizing a very recent method of regression specification, namely MIDAS regression, this article sets annual non-oil export as a function of seasonal real GDP, seasonal real exchange rate and seasonal real exchange rate fluctuations. To provide more accurate predictions, as compared to traditional methods, this regression model is capable of providing a revised prediction as soon as new information concerning explanatory variables are released. The specified regression model, which is estimated by using time series data within the period 1989 – 2014, predicts the real amount of annual non-oil export for 2015 with a small error of almost 2%. So, this prediction is considered to be very close to the reality.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
29
no.
2017
67
88
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_49614_6f9d80e2efd1017f92a6dfdd95ef9368.pdf
Analyzing the Impact of Green Tax on Emission of Pollution and Health Index in Iran: A Simultaneous Equations Model
hojjat
izadkhasti
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
ali akbar
arabmazar
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
moggan
khoshnamvand
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2017
per
In the process of sustainable development, the relationship between environment, health and economic growth is very important. So, although economic growth can improve health indicators, reducing the quality of the environment can have negative effects on society health indicators. As well as a result, in the context of the market mechanism, in the case where there are negative externalities, Pareto optimal condition is not occur and induce market failure. In this case, the government by lay tax on each unit of pollutant, can improves the quality of the environment and health index in society. In this study, the effects of green taxes on emissions of pollution and health index in Iran, analyzed using a two-stage least square technique and system of simultaneous equations, during the period (1989-2014). The results of the model indicate that green tax will reduce pollutant. Also, simultaneously reducing emissions of pollution will increase the health index.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
29
no.
2017
89
117
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_49615_cdb3ae73dfe31dc8e1b7920781cb44f7.pdf
The Effect of Financial Development on Income Inequality in Iran: A Review of the Role of Human Capital
Abolfazl
Noferesti
Departement of Economics, PhD student in Economics, International Campus, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
author
Mohammad Javad
Razmi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences,Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
author
Mohammad Taher
Ahmadi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences,Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
author
Mohammad
Noferesti
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2017
per
With homogeneity of human capital, financial institutions in the process of credit allocation, only need to use indices of physical capital, financial strength and credit backgrounds of applicants as the basis for their decision which its consequence is conflicting results in the researches. The new literature, emphasizes the heterogeneity of human capital and explain the existence of a complementary relationship between human and physical capital accumulation and suggests that lack of attention to these aspects, will lead to misleading results. In this paper, we have been studied this relationship in Iran under the premise the heterogeneity of human capital and it has been tested the effect of the combination of human capital and physical capital accumulation on income inequality using threshold regression model. The results over the period 1969-2014 show that, human capital apart from direct effect on income inequality, in combination with physical capital, has a simultaneously separate effect on income inequality.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
29
no.
2017
119
148
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_49616_bc8b9ac381c8ff5dc7a30d06828b8ee3.pdf
The Study of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth with Emphasis on the Role of Investment
Ali
Emame
Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University
author
naser
seifollahi
Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University
author
amadeh
hamed
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University
author
Atefe
Taklif
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University
author
text
article
2017
per
This study tries to examine the asymmetric effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth, using the generalized method of moments (GMM) during the period 1992-2015 for oil Exporting Countries and oil-importing countries. The results show that oil shocks play an asymmetric role in the form of oil price fluctuations, and also the results of dynamic panel model suggest that for oil exporting countries, elasticity of economic growth to oil price fluctuations is elastic and positive. While the direct impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth in oil importing countries is negative and inelastic, and by considering the effects of cross-investment and uncertainty channels, the total direct and indirect effects of oil price fluctuations on economic growth increase. In contrast for oil exporting countries, the marginal reaction of the economy to oil price fluctuations will not be great changes, which indicates economic growth has low dependence to oil prices.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
29
no.
2017
150
168
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_49617_511a50fcbc4f141d10605af024324420.pdf