Evaluating the Economic Condition of Iran in Comparison with “Twenty-Year Vision Document”
Vahid
Shaghaghi Shahri
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University
author
text
article
2017
per
In 2005, Iran outlined its goals in economic, science and technology for the next twenty years -The Twenty-Year Vision Document- a working plan to raise the country's ranking to that of the first in the region. After twelve years from setting of the vision document, in this article an attempt has done for evaluation of main macro-economic objectives, economic condition, and also to determine Iran's status between the seven greatest rival countries in the region in the six indices by Constructing Composite Indicators. The result of the composite economic indicator reveals that even though in 2005, Iran ranked fifth between the selected countries, this status has depreciation and slipped one place down and stand in sixth rank in 2010, but again has attempted to rise in rank to fifth place at 2015.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
30
no.
2017
1
29
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_52216_bcbb63b2b2b82fc5464d1631c4077971.pdf
Government Debt Sustainability in Iran: Evidence from a Threshold Regression Model
Ahmad
Jafarisamimi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Science, University of Mazandaran
author
Saeed
Karimi Potanlar
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Science, University of Mazandaran
author
Jalal
Montazeri Shoorekchali
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Science, University of Mazandaran
author
text
article
2017
per
The financial crisis during 2007-2008 and the cost of fiscal policy reform, increasingly revealed the importance of "government debt sustainability" in economic literature. Accordingly, this paper examines "government debt sustainability" based on a nonlinear fiscal reaction function. For this purpose, a fiscal reaction function has been estimated using a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model in Iran for the period 1971-2014. The findings support a threshold behavior of two regimes in the fiscal reaction functions. In addition, the results indicate that in the first regime (when the ratio of government foreign debt to GDP is less than 3.90%), the government reaction to central bank and domestic banks and non-bank financial institutions debts are not sustainable. However, in the second regime (when the ratio of government foreign debt to GDP is greater than 3.90%), the government reaction to all three types debt (central bank, domestic banks and non-bank financial institutions and foreign debts) are sustainable. Therefore, due to the impact of public debt on economic growth through various channels, it is necessary that "debt sustainability" be considered as a main variable in the objective function of fiscal policies in Iran.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
30
no.
2017
31
61
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_52217_967178d079d25324aa209aef8e8a9f10.pdf
Iranian Labor Migration to OECD Countries and Economic Factors Affecting it
Aliakbar
Arabmazar
Department of Economic, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Rassam
Moshrefi
Department of Economic, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
mohammad
mostafazadeh
Department of Economic, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2017
per
Labor is one of the most important factors of production and its migration abroad imposes economic opportunity costs to the society. In this study we have tried to examine economic factors involved in labor migration from Iran during 2002-2012. In this study, the theoretical foundations of the gravity models and estimation method of Panel data have been used for labor migration from Iran to 8 OECD member countries. These countries have the largest share of Iran's labor migration. The esults show that increase in population, foreign trade and economic growth of Iran decrease labor migration. On the other hand the increase in population, foreign trade, economic growth and wages of destination OECD countries, in addition to, the increase in unemployment rate in Iran and accumulation of Iranian immigrants in destination countries increase labor migration. Accordingly, due to the significant and strong impact of unemployment rate and GDP growth of Iran on migration flows, devising plan to improve economic conditions of Iran is necessary to control the upward trend of migration.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
30
no.
2017
63
94
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_52215_3572d43f44e6341bf99118c2a34012cf.pdf
Modeling Speculative Bubbles in Tehran Stock Exchange Considering Social and Psychological Dynamics
Teimour
Mohammadi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabaei University
author
Davood
Danesh Jafari
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabaei University
author
Mostafa
Nasr Esfahani
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabaei University
author
text
article
2017
per
Stock market is one of the important markets in any economy and a good understanding of it is necessary for policy making both in individual and governmental levels. One of the phenomena seen in asset markets is bubble. Several works have been done about bubbles in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE), but no one has developed a new theoretical model. Almost all of the atudies have used the mainstream approach, conventional econometric methods or an accounting approach. To consider the social and psychological dynamics, we applied Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE). The model is validated with the time series of overall index of TSE and the results are satisfactory. We showed that the presence of uncertainty about future fundamentals on one hand, and heterogeneous expectation and social and psychological dynamics , on the other hand can explain how a bubble in TSE is formed. The model developed here is simple and basic, and therefore can be a good basis for more full-fledged models of different markets. The results also show that the speed of learning has increased through time.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
30
no.
2017
95
122
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_52218_e65f5d6266d21dd4db58fa98907f81f6.pdf
The Effect of Population Age Structure Change on the Component of Money Demand in the Iranian Economy
Mohammad
Noferesti
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Samaneh
Javaherdehi
MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Masoud
Abdollahi
MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2017
per
In the literature, money demand is usually related to some key variables such as income, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation. But in the societies that population age distribution has changed drastically, age structure is also an important explanatory variable that should be considered in a well defined money demand function. The absence of such variable from money demand function might not lead to a co-integrated equation. Hence the estimated parameters would not be reliable. In this article, by the aid of Ando and Modigliani’s life cycle theory of consumption, three money functions are specified for the components of liquidity that encompasses a variable which represents changes in the age distribution of the society. The specified equations are estimated using time series data for the period 1959 to 2014. ARDL method of estimation is adopted. The results show that by increasing the portion of middle age group in the population, who’s marginal propensity to consume is low, the demand for currency and checking accounts decreases while the demand for time deposits tend to increase.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
30
no.
2017
123
141
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_52219_763fe8165dfee015130df216545aaed7.pdf
The Assessment of Iran’s Industrial Products Trade with Other Countries from the Perspective of Virtual Water
Morteza
Tahami Pour Zarandi
Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Sahar
Dashtban Faroji
MA student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Samaneh
Javaherdehi
MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2017
per
Todays, the low water countries have specific attention to the virtual water trade for determination of their long-run strategies. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the situation of the virtual water in Iranian industrial products trade with its partners using method of basic-technical indicators. The data have been collected from statistical center of Iran for firms with 10 or more employees during 2011-2014. In this regard, due to the large number of trade partners, 20 countries with more than 95% proportion in trade have been selected and the process of export and import of the virtual water was studied for them. The results show that the net virtual water export trend has had undesirable situation, where the net export of virtual water from -112 million m3 at 2011 have raised to 115 million m3 at 2014. In other words, the industrial sector has turned up to a net exporter of the virtual water. Also, the most import and export of the virtual water has allocated to United Arab Emirates and China with volume of 119 and 99 million m3, respectively. Hence, as policy implication, considering the water resources in industrial products trade is necessary.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
8
v.
30
no.
2017
143
187
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_52220_3609e10ea3802c7b31919742c8392d8d.pdf