Estimating the Long-Term Demand of Energy in the Sector of Industries and Mines through the Two-Stage Estimation Approach and Simulation of the Effects of Increasing Energy Price on Consumption Control
Mohammad Naser
Sherafat
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Rasam
Moshrefi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
author
text
article
2012
per
The sector of Industries and mines is one of the important sectors of Iran's economy. This sector consumes more than 23% of total energy consumption, and its production is dependant on energy input. Therefore, the policy of increase in energy price decreases the demand of energy as an intended result. However, this policy could have some side effects. In this paper, at first, energy demand in industries and mines sector has been estimated by two stage estimation approachs, and then by estimation of production and price function, a simulation model has been developed. In this simulation model, the effects of increasing energy price on energy consumption and value added in sector of industries and mines have been studied. More ever, the inflationary side effects of changes in energy price have been included. Based on simulation results, increase in the energy price in general could decrease energy consumption in the sector of industries and mines. It should be considered that the inflationary side effects of energy price increase could diminish energy consumption reduction. However, if the policy of increasing energy price, companied with two shocks of devaluation of national currency and liquidity increase, was realized as it was the case in Iran, the secondary inflationary cycle could wipe out the intended energy saving results of energy price policy, Hence, the steady state result of energy price policy could just be inflation.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
3
v.
9
no.
2012
1
41
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57459_b9afb917ad9c49d82d6f856b258e3eb5.pdf
Using Hybrid Expert System Approach for Forecasting Bankruptcy of Tehran Stock Exchange
Corporation Companies
Hamid
Abrishami
Tehran University, Faculty Member
author
Akbar
Komijani
Tehran University, Faculty Member
author
Mehdi
Ahrari
M.A. in Economics
author
Gazaleh
Hosseini Habashi
M.A. in Economics
author
text
article
2012
per
In this research, bankruptcy of companies is predicted using the Hybrid Expert System (HES) approach. Factors affecting bankruptcy and the extent of their impact are saved as rules in a Rule-Based Expert System, and together with financial ratios they are considered as inputs in the GMDH neural networks. The impact of each of these factors on the accumulated profit or loss to capital ratio is evaluated in order to isolate the impact of external shocks on bankruptcy. Variables and the following four financial ratios: Current Ratio, Gross Profit Margin Ratio, Net Profit to Current Debt Ratio and Return of Assets are used as inputs in the GMDH neural networks. The results are compared with those of artificial neural networks for the year of bankruptcy, the preceding year, two years earlier and the average of these three years. In all of these cases, the HES approach produces better outcome than those produced by neural networks. The differences were more marked for 1384 and 1385 when there were large numbers of corporate bankruptcies. Hence the hypothesis of higher accuracy of Expert System compared to neural networks in predicting bankruptcies is confirmed.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
3
v.
9
no.
2012
42
66
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57458_8219edb37b6b6ec18b8c4b3c8b578a87.pdf
A Comparative Study of the Effect of Government Size on Economic Growth between OPEC & OECD Countries; a Threshold Panel Approach Based on Standardized and None Standardized Threshold Variable
Farhad
Dejpasand
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
author
Mostafa
Nasr Esfahani
PhD Student
author
text
article
2012
per
Economic growth is one of the most important goals of all societies all over the world. Among the determinants of economic growth rate, the government size has always been of particular interest. Natural resources let governments spend more easily in comparison to tax-based governments. Using panel data models brings talk about regression results more confidently due to more observations availability. In this paper, we apply Ram(1986) model to comparatively examine the effects of different types of government expenditure on economic growth through a panel threshold approach in OECD countries and those of OPEC. To control for cross country differences we use standardized government size as the threshold variable. Since using standardized threshold variable is done for the first time in the world and the implications of such an approach are not discussed in the literature, we used both methods(standardizing or non-standardizing the threshold variable). The data are from valid international organizations such as IMF &Worldbank. The results indicate that the Armey curve exists neither in OECD countries nor in OPEC countries except for current expenditures in OECD countries for which a threshold value of 19 percent is obtained. As a conclusion for this work, government size in OPEC countries can be far larger than it is now. About OECD, the results show that except for current expenditure, government size is far larger than growth rate.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
3
v.
9
no.
2012
68
92
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57457_65ba40aba00c969228003a86823308f5.pdf
Investigation of Allocation System in Urban Household Budget (Differential System Demand Approach)
Mohammad Nabi
Shahiki Tash
Sistan and Baluchestan University, Faculty member
author
Bagher
Darvishi
Ilam University, Faculty member
author
text
article
2012
per
This Study investigates consumer demand for goods and survey allocation system in Iran. A complete system demand equation describes how total consumer resources are being allocated over various uses. The allocation is modified in response to changes in the structure of prices. In order to study the response of demand for goods to prices and total expenditure, many differential demand system have been estimated (CBS, NBR, AIDS and Rotterdam). Statistical measures indicated that Rotterdam is the best model in comparison with other models (CBS, NBR and AIDS).In this study calculated elasticities from the Rotterdam model with both homogeneity and symmetry assumptions have been used. The result of this paper shows that the expenditure elasticity of “Eating group” is greater than one, and expenditure elasticity of “House group” lesser than one. In other word , the result indicates that, “Eating group” is luxury good and “House group” is necessity good.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
3
v.
9
no.
2012
94
121
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57456_f9a68b63da9b4f563918f1979fd310b3.pdf
Job Creation, Job Destruction and Disaggregation of Static, Dynamic and within Shift Effects of Industrial Structure on Employment Generation of Manufacturing Industries in Iran
Mohammadgholi
Yousefi
Allamea Tabatabai University, Faculty Member
author
Tahere
Karimi Dastenaei
Allamea Tabatabai University, Msc. Student
author
text
article
2012
per
Using data of manufacturing Industries in Iran during 1374-88,to estimate job creation and job destruction and disaggregating static and dynamic effects and within shift effects of industrial structure; we found that no significant structural changes on employment has taken place in Iran’s Manufacturing industries. Using dispersion analysis to study the speed and direction of structural changes ,we found that the speed of structural changes were rapid and on the normal direction up to 1382-85; however, this trend was reversed thereafter up to the period of 1386-88, indicating that there has been exodus of labor from high productive and dynamic industries towards inefficient and declining industries after the threshold time period of 1382-85.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
3
v.
9
no.
2012
122
147
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57455_e1f739209f3516e483e141c5bbfc6ac3.pdf
Investigating the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran’s Provinces Using Cointegration and Multivariate Panel Error Correction Model
Majid
Aghaei
PhD student
author
Ali
Ghanbari
عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
author
Lotfeali
Agheli
عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
author
Hossein
Sadeghi
عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
author
text
article
2012
per
Energy consumption as one of the most important factors in economic growth has a significant role in the economic development. In this study, there was on attempt to estimate the impact of energy consumption on economic growth in Iran's provinces to answer this question: Whether or not an increase in energy consumption lead to economic growth?
We estimated the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in tree groups of Iran’s provinces (developed, less developed and undeveloped provinces) using economic theory and based on Panel Error Correction Model and panel cointegration and causality tests in the period of 1381 to 1389.
Long-run and short-run coefficient estimations have been done using Dynamic Ordinary Least Square and Pooled Mean Group respectively. The results indicate that increasing (decreasing) energy consumption in three kinds of provinces causes an increase (decrease) in economic growth. Thus, we accepted Feedback hypothesis in this study because of the bidirectional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran’s provinces.
Moreover, the effect of energy consumption on economic growth in developed provinces is more than two other kinds of provinces, so part of the development gap among three different groups of provinces could be explain by the gap in their energy consumption.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
3
v.
9
no.
2012
148
185
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57453_949ef0d05f9b87b003a2e0dd98929db6.pdf
Final Demand Impact on Energy Product Activity: A Macro Multiplier
Reza
Mohseni
Power and Water University of Technology, Faculty member
author
Saeede
Akbarzadeh Tabrik
M.A. in Economics
author
Mohammad
Node Farahani
M.A. in Economics
author
Akram
Charmgar
M.A. Student in Economics
author
text
article
2012
per
The current economic situation requires appropriate policies designed to control the demand for policy purposes in different productive activities. Therefore, this study has tried to focus on the energy product activity and input-output model, macro multiplier through Eigen value has been counted. Then measure the activity change energy production and total production changes, the policy objectives and are calculated. This method makes it possible that in addition to, we can identify appropriate demand management policies in order to achieve the greatest possible impact on producers and choose the best policy (or set of policies) to control the activities of production and demand, leading to improved total production. Therefor, input-output table of SCI in 1380 has been used (final) to identifie for energy product activities through MM approach. The results show that the control policy to a policy of maximizing production economics, a master policy to increase the production and combined control policy to the policy maximizing total output of the economy. Policy control related to politics maximizing production of petroleum products have greatest influence on increasing activities produce energy economy of Iran with coefficients of each 0.4 and 0.6, respectively.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Shahid Beheshti University
2476-5775
3
v.
9
no.
2012
186
211
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_57445_b8c2a5a6420d664df9f2548febbbdaa8.pdf