ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
رابطه غیرخطی سطح وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی و ناپایداری مالی در کشورهای منتخب صادرکننده نفت؛ رهیافت دادههای ترکیبی آستانهای
هدف اصلی این پژوهش، تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر ناپایداری مالی کشورهای صادرکننده نفت در سطوح مختلف از وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی بر اساس رویکرد دادههای ترکیبی آستانهای است. در این پژوهش از شاخص «نسبت کسری بودجه بدون نفت به تولید ناخالص داخلی بدون نفت» برای سنجش شاخص ناپایداری مالی10 کشور منتخب صادرکننده نفت طی سالهای 2015-2000 استفاده شده است. پس از انجام آزمونهای تشخیص و تأیید الگوی اثرات تصادفی با وابستگی مقطعی و سریالی، ضمن تأیید شدن معناداری آماری اثر آستانهای (نسبت صادرات نفتی به کل صادرات کشور) در الگو، یافتههای پژوهش نشان میدهد که در سطح اطمینان 90 درصد، تأثیر درآمد دولت از حقالضرب پول بر شاخص ناپایداری مالی از نظر آماری مثبت و معنادار است. علاوه بر این، در گروه کشورهای مورد بررسی، زمانی که وابستگی درآمدهای دولت به درآمدهای نفتی از سطح آستانه محاسبه شده (29 درصد) بالاتر باشد، تأثیر وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی بر شاخص ناپایداری مالی بیش از 3 برابر حالتی است که وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی کمتر از سطح آستانه باشد. یافتههای این پژوهش، لزوم برنامهریزی و جهتگیری اصولی در راستای کاهش وابستگی ساختاری بودجه دولت به درآمدهای نفتی به منظور کاهش ناپایداری مالی در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت را تأیید میکند.
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_79275_6510fb50c30f0d8f04e3639b14816294.pdf
2018-08-23
1
28
ناپایداری مالی
آستانه
صادرکننده نفت
GDP بدون نفت
دادههای ترکیبی
محمد
صیادی
m.sayadi@khu.ac.ir
1
استادیار گروه اقتصاد انرژی و منابع دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی
LEAD_AUTHOR
علی
ناظمی
nazemi@khu.ac.ir
2
استادیار گروه اقتصاد انرژی و منابع دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی
AUTHOR
رسول
رجبزاده اردلی
rasool.rajabzadeh71@gmail.com
3
کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی
AUTHOR
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1
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18
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20
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21
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22
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24
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ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
ثبات مالی و عملکرد اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی کشورهای عضو اوپک
با توجه به نقش سیستم مالی به عنوان مکمل بخش واقعی اقتصاد، کارکرد مناسب آن همواره مورد توجه سیاستگزاران اقتصادی بوده و ثبات سیستم مالی یکی از اهداف مهم اقتصادی محسوب میشود. نظر به اهمیت رابطه بین ثبات مالی و عملکرد اقتصادی، در این مطالعه به بررسی تجربی آن در کشورهای عضو اوپک طی دوره زمانی 2000 تا 2016 پرداخته میشود. الگوسازی این رابطه با تکیه بر الگوهای دادههای ترکیبی پویا صورت گرفته و برآورد رابطه مذکور در این مطالعه با استفاده از تخمین زن GMM سیستمی و پس از کنترل کردن سطح تعمیق مالی کشورها صورت گرفته است. شاخصهای مختلف ثبات مالی (شاخصهای نهادی، شاخصهای خرد و کلان و شاخص ساخته شده توسط مطالعه) و عملکرد اقتصادی(رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، رشد هزینه مصرفی سرانه خانوار و رشد تشکیل سرمایه ی ناخالص ثابت) به منظور بررسی جنبههای مختلف آن در این پژوهش مورد استفاده قرار گرفتهاند. با توجه به نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه ثبات مالی تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر عملکرد اقتصادی کشورهای عضو اوپک طی دوره مورد بررسی داشته است.
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_79276_83484961b4a1a743d926c23d63637f57.pdf
2018-08-23
29
65
ثبات مالی
عملکرد اقتصادی
GMM سیستمی
تعمیق مالی
مجید
آقایی
m.aghaei@umz.ac.ir
1
استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران
LEAD_AUTHOR
محمد امین
کوهبر
aminkuhbor@yahoo.com
2
استادیار اقتصاد، دانشگاه علوم و فنون دریایی خرمشهر
AUTHOR
حسین
احمدی نژاد
hoseinahmadinejad1@gmail.com
3
کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران
AUTHOR
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2
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38
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51
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
اثر مخارج دولت و نااطمینانی اقتصاد کلان بر سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی در ایران
یکی از ارکان توسعه و رشد اقتصادی مبتنی بر گسترش سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی است. ازاینرو، توجه به متغیرهای مرتبط در این باره و بررسی نقش آنها امری ضروری است. بنابراین هدف مطالعه حاضر، بررسی نقش نااطمینانی اقتصاد کلان و مخارج دولت بر سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی در ایران بر اساس دادههای فصلی و سالانه در بازه زمانی 1368-1394 است. برای این منظور، ابتدا نااطمینانی اقتصاد کلان با استفاده از الگوی تلاطم تصادفی استخراج گردیده و سپس برای بررسی اثر مخارج دولت و نااطمینانی اقتصاد کلان بر سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی از روش دادههای ترکیبی با تواتر متفاوت (MIDAS) استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد که افزایش نااطمینانی اقتصاد کلان و نیز افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی بر سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی در ایران به ترتیب اثرات منفی و مثبت داشته است. همچنین مخارج مصرفی دولت تأثیر منفی بر سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی دارد.
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_79277_ae5be294916864ee9f6e429384a32e03.pdf
2018-08-23
67
99
نااطمینانی اقتصاد کلان
سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی
الگوی تلاطم تصادفی
روش دادههای ترکیبی با تواتر متفاوت
بهنام
الیاس پور
behnam.elyaspour@gmail.com
1
استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه بجنورد
LEAD_AUTHOR
مجید
دشتبان
m.dashtban@ub.ac.ir
2
استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه بجنورد
AUTHOR
سحر
دشتبان فاروجی
dashtban.sahar@yahoo.com
3
دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
AUTHOR
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3
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4
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5
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16
- Favero, C. A., Pesaran, M. H., & Sharma, S. (1994). A Duration Model of Irreversible Oil Investment: Theory and Empirical Evidence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 9(S), 95-112.
17
- Fujii, T., Hiraga, K., & Kozuka, M. (2013). Effects of public investment on sectoral private investment: A factor augmented VAR approach. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 27, 35-47.
18
- Gaskari, R., Ghanbari, H. & Eghbali, A. (2006). Instability in Macroeconomic and Private Investment in Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 6(23), 113-132 (In Persian).
19
- George, A., & Morisset, J. (1993). Does Price Uncertainty Really Reduce Private Investment (A small model applied to Chile). The international bank for reconstruction and development. Washington DC; World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 1114.
20
- Ghura, D., & Goodwin, B. (2000). Determinants of Private Investment: A Cross-Regional Empirical Investigation. Applied Economics, 32, 1819-1829.
21
- Greene, J., & Villanueva, D. (1991). Private Investment in Developing Countries. IMF Staff Papers, 38(1), 33-58.
22
- Guiso, L. & Parigi, G. (1999). Investment and Demand Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 185-227.
23
- Hartman, R. (1972). The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5, 258-266.
24
- Heng, K. T. (1997). Public capital and crowding-in. The Singapore Economic Review, 42(2), 1-10.
25
- Jalaee Esfand Abadi, S.A. & Samimi, S. (2014). Investigating the Barriers of Private Investment in Iran. Quarterly Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 2(7), 89-109 (In Persian).
26
- Kazerooni, A., & Dolati, M. (2007). The Effect of the Uncertainty of the Real Exchange Rate on Private Sector Investment (Case Study of Iran). Journal of Trade Studies, 12(45), 283-306. (In Persian)
27
- Khan, M. S., & Carmen M. R. (1990). Private Investment and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. World Development, 18(1), 19-27.
28
- Koetse, M.J., van der Vlist, A.J., & de Groot, H.L.F. (2006). The Impact of Perceived Expectations and Uncertainty on Firm Investment. Small Business Economics, 26, 365-376.
29
- Looney, R. E. (1997). Infrastructure and Private Sector Investment in Pakistan. Journal of Asian economics, 8(3), 393-420.
30
- Lutfi, E., & Randall, G.H. (2005. The effects of Public Investment on Private Investment in Developing Economics. Public Finance Review, 33(5), 575- 602
31
- Mamatzakis, E. C. (2001). Public Spending and Private Investment: Evidence from Greece. International Economic Journal, 15(4), 33-46.
32
- Mehnatfar, U. (2015). Public Expenditure Impact on Private Investment in Iran: Crowding out or crowding in? Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2(1), 143-162 (In Persian).
33
- Meyer, R., & Yu, J. (2000). BUGS for a Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models. The Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 198-215.
34
- Nakamura, T. (1999). Risk Aversion and the Uncertainty-Investment Relationship: A Note. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 38, 357-363.
35
- Nakamura, T. (2002). Finite Durability of Capital and the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 48, 51-56.
36
- Noferesti, M. & Bayat, M (2013). Forecasting Iranian’s Economic Growth Using Mixed Frequency Data Sampling Technique. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 4(14-15), 1-23 (In Persian).
37
- Noferesti, M. & Norouzi, z (2012). Private Investment Response to User Cost of Capital, Uncertainty and Capacity Utilization Rate. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 3(11-12), 44-62 (In Persian).
38
- Office of Economic Studies. (2008). Investigating the Investment Trend of the Private Sector and Economic Growth in Iran. Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, Thematic Code 220, Serial Number 9474 (In Persian).
39
- Oral, W., & Darius, R. (1998). Private Investment Adjustment with in the ECCB Monetary Union. Social and Economic Studies, 47(2 and 3), 59-87.
40
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41
- Pattillo, C. (1998). Investment, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility in Ghana. Staff Papers, 45(3), 522-553.
42
- Pereira, A. M., & Roca-Sagales, O. (2001). Infrastructures and Private Sector Performance in Spain. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(4), 371-384.
43
- Pindyck, R.S. (1982). Adjustment Costs, Uncertainty, and the Behavior of the Firm. American Economic Review, 72, 415-427.
44
- Pindyck, R.S. (1988). Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm. American Economic Review, 78, 969-985.
45
- Pindyck, R.S. (1993). A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty. American Economic Review, 83, 273-277.
46
- Ramirez D. M. (1994). Public and Private Investment in Mexico, 1950-90: An empirical Analysis. Southern Economic Journal, 61 (1), 1-17.
47
- Saltari, E. & D. T. (2005). Risk Aversion and the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: A Comment. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 56, 121-125.
48
- Serven, L. (1998). Macro Economic Uncertainity and Private Investment in Developing Countries an Empirical Investigation. Policy Research Working Paper, 2035, World Bank, Development Research Group, Macro economics and Growth.
49
- Serven, L. (2002). Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries. Policy Research Working Paper, 2823, World Bank, April 2002.
50
- Serven, L., & Solimano, A. (1993). Debt Crisis, Adjustment Policies and Capital Formation in Developing Countries: Where Do We Stand? World Development, 21(1), 127-140.
51
- Serven, L., & Andres, S. (1991). Adjustment Policies and Investment Performance in Developing Countries: Theory, Country Experiences and Policy Implications. Washington DC: World Bank, Working paper Series No. 606.
52
- Tobin, J. (1969). A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1, 15-29.
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54
- Wai, U. T., & Wong, C. H. (1982). Determinants of Private Investment in Developing Countries. The Journal of Development Studies, 19(1), 19-36.
55
- Yu, J. (2005). On Leverage in a Stochastic Volatility Model. Journal of Econometrics, 127(2), 165-178.
56
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
تأثیر خصوصیسازی بر عملکرد صادراتی شرکتهای پتروشیمی ایران (مطالعه موردی: صادرات پلی ـ اتیلن)
ایران به عنوان دومین کشور تولیدکننده گاز و پنجمین کشور در زمینه تولید نفت خام در جهان، مستعد رشد و توسعه صنعت پتروشیمی است. این صنعت در سالهای اخیر دارنده مقام اول صادارت غیرنفتی کشور بوده و اصلاحات اقتصادی از نوع خصوصیسازی با هدف افزایش بهرهوری در آن انجام شده است. در این مقاله تأثیر خصوصیسازی بر صادرات این صنعت، با تأکید بر عملکرد صادرات پلیاتیلن چهار شرکت پتروشیمی امیرکبیر، جم، مارون و آریاساسول، طی سالهای 1394-1385 با روش دادههای ترکیبی پویا بررسی میشود. نتایج این پژوهش نشان میدهد که در دوره مورد بررسی، خصوصیسازی اثر منفی بر مقدار صادرات این صنعت داشته است. لذا در فرایند خصوصیسازی صنعت پتروشیمی، چه قبل و چه بعد از انتقال مالکیت بنگاههای اقتصادی، باید تدابیر جدیدی اندیشیده شود. اری بخش خصوصی در ایران به ترتیب اثرات منفی و مثبت داشته است. همچنین مخارج مصرفی دولت تأثیر منفی بر سرمایهگذاری بخش خصوصی دارد.
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_79278_7a6817e7d86d6b2ad1310f1d64886f59.pdf
2018-08-23
101
124
خصوصیسازی
صنعت پتروشیمی
پلی اتیلن
هند
چین
ویدا
ورهرامی
vida.varahrami@gmail.com
1
استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
LEAD_AUTHOR
حسن
درگاهی
hdargahi@sbu.ac.ir
2
دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
AUTHOR
فرانک
بیرانوند
beyranvand@yahoo.com
3
کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
AUTHOR
- Anderson. (1996). Strengthening the Global Trading System: From GATT to WTO, University of Adelaide
1
- Andrade. T. (2014).The Impact of Regulation, Privatization and Competition on Gas Infrastructure Investments. Energy Journal, 66(10), 82-85.
2
- Arize, A.C. (1995), The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on US Export an Empirical Investigation. Southern Journal, 10, 34-43
3
- Arellano M, & Bond. S., (1991), Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 2(12), 277-297.
4
- Chambers R.G, & Just R.E. (1982), An Investigation of the Effect of Monetary Factors on Agriculture, Monetary Economics, 5 (10), 235-247.
5
- Dijk, M.P. & Northolt, N.G.S. (1994). Privatization in Africa: Experiences from North and West Africa: in Van Dijk, M.P. & Northolt, N. G.S. ed., Privatization Experiences in African and Asian Countries. Amsterdam: SISWO Publicities.
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- Dewatripont. M. & Roland. G. (1992). Economic Reform and Dynamic Political Constraints. Review of Economic Studies, 59 (8), 703-730.
7
- Fountas S. & Berdin D. (1998). Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Case of Ireland. Applied Economics Letters, 5(7), 301-304.
8
- Kikari, S, & Nelis, J. (2008). Privatization in Competitive Sectors. Niak Publication (In Persian).
9
- Komijan, A. (2003). Survey privatization in Iran. Moavenat Echtesadi Publication (In Persian).
10
- Kornai, J. (1993). The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Socialism, Princeton. Princeton University Press.
11
- Megginson, W. L, Nash. R.C & Randenborgh. M (1996). The Financial and Operating Performance of Newly Privatized Firms: An International Empirical Analysis. The Privatization Process.
12
- Nikzad, M., Khatam, J. & Hajitabar, R. (2015), Effects of Privatization on Quality, Profit and Practice of Petrochemical Firms of Iran. International Conference of Economic in Sanction (In Persian).
13
- Shiri, S. (2010). Privatization and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Research, 90, 141-158 (In Persian).
14
- Omran, M. (2003). Performance on Sequences of Privatizing Egyptian State – owned Enterprises: The Effect of Post Privatization Ownership Structure on Firm Performance. Arab Academy for science & Technology; Egypt.
15
- Paul, S. (1985). Privatization and the Public Sector. Finance and Development, 22(10), 4-7.
16
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pesaran, B. (1997), An Introduction to Econometrics Working with Microfit 4.0 Interactive Econometric. Oxford University Press.
17
- Schwartz, G. (1991). Privatization: Possible Lessons from the Hungarian Case. World Development, 12(9), 1731-1736.
18
- Selvam, J., & Rajan, A.M (2008). Privatization and Economic Growth in the Least Developed Economies: Empirical Evidences from Ethiopia. IUP Publications, the IUP. Journal of Applied Economics, 2 (10), 57-79.
19
- Shirley, M. (1992). The What, Why, and How of Privatization. A World Bank Perspective, 60 Fordham L. Rev. S23.
20
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21
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22
-Walle, N (1989). Privatization in Developing Countries: A Review of the Issues. World Development, 17(5), 601-6015.
23
- Yasuyuki, T, Tomohiko I, & Yuan Y, (2012), Effects of Privatization on Exporting Decisions. Retied Discussion Paper, 12-E015.
24
- Zaringhalam, M (2005). Survey Effects of 3th Macroeconomic Plan of Development, Master Thesis. University of Isfahan (In Persian).
25
- Zargar, M. (2011). Survey Saham Edalat Project Effects after Privatization. National Privatization Conference (In Persian).
26
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
بررسی آثار سرمایهگذاری بخش حملونقل بر ایجاد اشتغال از ساز و کار اثر القایی بر تولید
در مطالعه حاضر، اثر مستقیم و غیرمستقیم هر واحد سرمایهگذاری در بخش حملونقل بر ایجاد ارزشافزوده و اشتغال در اقتصاد بررسی گردید. بدین منظور، پس از تخمین روابط با روش رگرسیون خودبازگشتی با وقفههای توزیعی در دوره 1393-1338، روابط پویای کوتاهمدت، بلندمدت و تصحیح خطا برازش شد و یک الگوی اقتصادسنجی کوچکمقیاس طراحی گردید. مطابق برآورد روابط بلندمدت، کشش تولیدی بخش حملونقل نسبت به سرمایه در تخمین نقطهای، بیش از دو برابر بخشهای اقتصادی غیرحملونقلی است. با توجه به نتایج و این یافته که هر یک درصد افزایش در میزان خلق ارزشافزوده کل منجر به 3/0 درصد رشد تعداد مشاغل کشور میشود، اثر سرمایهگذاری در بخش حملونقل بر ایجاد ارزشافزوده کل و ایجاد اشتغال در کشور بررسی شد. نتایج شبیهسازی سناریوی تکانه در سرمایهگذاری بخش حملونقل، نشان داد که هر یک درصد افزایش این متغیر بهطور متوسط باعث رشد 235/0 درصدی خلق ارزشافزوده اقتصادی و رشد 071/0 درصدی تعداد شاغلان در دوره شبیهسازی گردیده که با توجه به سهم کمتر از 10 درصدی حملونقل از ارزشافزوده کل، اثر قابلتوجهی است. بنابراین با توجه به اثرات القایی قابلتوجه بخش حملونقل در اقتصاد کشور، این بخش از قابلیت نسبی برای توسعه اشتغال مستقیم و غیرمستقیم از کانال تقویت تولید برخوردار است.
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_79279_0b117edfcb46f65952bba21113600861.pdf
2018-08-23
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154
اشتغالزایی
الگوی خود بازگشتی با وقفههای توزیعی
رشداقتصادی
سرمایهگذاری حملونقل
الگو اقتصادسنجی
رسام
مشرفی
rassam_moshrefi@yahoo.com
1
استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
LEAD_AUTHOR
مهرداد
نجفی
mehrdad.najafi@gmail.com
2
دانشجوی دکتری عمران راه و ترابری، دانشگاه پیام نور مرکز تهران شمال
AUTHOR
محمود رضا
کی منش
mrkeymanesh@pnu.ac.ir
3
استادیار گروه عمران راه و ترابری، دانشگاه پیام تور مرکز تهران شمال
AUTHOR
- Ademola A. S. & Badiru, A. (2016). The impact of unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria (1981-2014). International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 9(1), 47-55.
1
- Akhbari, R. & Amadeh, H. (2015). Analysis of the Cointegration relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth: evidences of Iran's economy. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 15(59), 125-160 (In Persian).
2
- Aldonat Beyzatlar, M., Karacal, M. & Yetkiner, H. (2014). Granger-Causality between Transportation and GDP: A Panel Data Approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 63, 43–55.
3
- Babazadeh, M., Ghadimi, K. & Mohseni, R. (2009). Effects of Investment on Transport sector on Economic Growth of Iran. Quarterly Research Journal of Commerce, 50, 157-199 (In Persian).
4
- Beyzaei, S. E. (2003). Applied Principles of Transportation Economics, Samt Press (In Persian).
5
- Boopen S. (2006). Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa Using Dynamic Panel Estimates. The Empirical Economics Letters, 5(1), 37-52.
6
- Caraiani, P. (2006). Alternative Methods of Estimating the Okun Coefficient Applications for Romania. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 3(4), 82-89.
7
- Central Bank of Iran, Department of Statistics and Data. Economic Times Database. http://www.cbi.ir
8
- Daei Karimzadeh, S., Emadzadeh, M. & Kamkar, H. (2011). The Effect of Government Investment in the Transportation Sector on Economic Growth in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 3(4), 63-82 (In Persian).
9
- Gujarati, D. (2005), Econometric Foundations, Tehran University Press (In Persian).
10
- Jiang, X., He, X., Zhang, L., Qin, H. & Shao, F. (2017). Multimodal transportation infrastructure investment and regional economic development: A structural equation modeling empirical analysis in China from 1986 to 2011. Transport Policy, 54, 43-52.
11
- Khaksari Rafsanjani, A. & Asadi Sisakht, A. (2017). An Investigation and Comparison of Road Transport Indicators among the Provinces of Iran. International Journal of Transportation Engineering, 4(4), 275-286.
12
- Mahmoudi, A. (1997). Transportation Economics. Eghtesad'e Now Press (In Persian).
13
- Maparu, T. S. & Mazumder, T. N. (2017). Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship? Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 100, 319-336.
14
- National Portal for Statistics, Statistical Yearbooks and National Accounts www.amar.org
15
- Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. American Statistical Association, Proceeding of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, 7, 98-104.
16
- Petkov, B. (2008). The Labour Market and Output in the UK does Okuns Law Still Stand? , Discussion Papers: Bagarska Narodna Banka. 69.
17
- Pradhan, R. P. & Tapan P. B. (2013). Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach, Research in transport economics, 38(1), 139-148.
18
- Razavi, M. & Moshrefi, R. (2004). Dynamic Analysis of Employment in Iran's Economy (Case Study of the Law of Okun). Quarterly Journal of Iranian Economic Research, 6(18), 1-37 (In Persian).
19
- Sadiku, M., Ibraimi, A. & Sadiku, L. (2015). Econometric Estimation of the Relationship between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth of FYR of Macedonia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 69 – 81.
20
- Saidi, S., Shahbaz, M. & Akhtar, P. (2018). The long-run relationships between transport energy consumption, transport infrastructure, and economic growth in MENA countries. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 111, 78-95.
21
- Seifollahi, N., Emami, A., Amadeh, H. & Taklif, A. (2017). Investigating Impacts of Oil Prices on Economic Growth with Emphasis on Investment Role. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 8 (25), 149-168 (In Persian).
22
- Tariq M., Y., Wang, A. & Saeed, A. (2016). The impact of transportation infrastructure on economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan, Transportation Letters. The International Journal of Transportation Research, 9(2), 63-69.
23
- Tatoglu, F. Y. (2011). The Long and Short Run Effects between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Europe. Dogus Universitesi Dergisi, 12(1), 99-113.
24
- Tingi, N. Y. & Lingii, L. S. (2011). Okuns Law in Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach with HodrickPrescott (HP) filter. Journal of Global Business and Economics, 2(1), 95-103.
25
- Zibaee, H. (2016). A Model for Predicting Investments in Iran's Economic Sectors. Journal of Planning and Budjet, 87, 23-41 (In Persian).
26
ORIGINAL_ARTICLE
تحلیل آگزیوماتیک نرخ بهره بهینه در الگوهای بیولی
این مطالعه به این مسئله میپردازد که در فضایی که بر «تقاضای احتیاطی» برای نگهداری پول و دارایی تمرکز شود، چه نرخ بهرهای «وجود» و همچنین «بهینگی» تعادل پولی را تضمین خواهد نمود. فضای مورد تحلیل در این مقاله دارای دو ویژگی اساسی است: «عوامل ناهمگن» که با ریسکهای منحصر به فرد مواجه هستند؛ و «بازارهای ناقص» که در آنها امکان بیمه کامل در برابر این ریسکها از طریق وامگیری وجود ندارد. در چنین فضایی افراد برای «بیمه شخصی» خویش در برابر نوسانات درآمدی «مختص به شخص» اقدام به پسانداز احتیاطی از طریق انباشت یک دارایی منحصربفرد از قبیل پول دستوری، اعتبار و یا سرمایه مینمایند که اصطلاحاً «الگوهای بیولی» نامیده میشوند. در این مقاله با روش آگزیوماتیک اثبات شده است که در حالت وجود همزمان دو دارایی یعنی پول دستوری و اوراق قرضه نیز همچنان نتایج اصلی الگوهای بیولی صادق است؛ یعنی ضرورت دارد نرخ بهره به کمتر از نرخ رجحان زمانی کاهش یابد تا مصرف و دارایی همگرا شوند و تعادل پولی محقق شود.
https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_79280_11a35824d63094006ada53045e8f9198.pdf
2018-08-23
155
183
نرخ بهره
تعادل پولی
بهینگی
پسانداز احتیاطی
الگوهای بیولی
سید عقیل
حسینی
aqil.hoseiny@yu.ac.ir
1
استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم انسانی دانشگاه یاسوج
LEAD_AUTHOR
محمد
واعظ برزانی
vaez@polt.ui.ac.ir
2
دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان
AUTHOR
رسول
بخشی دستجردی
r.bakhshi@ase.ui.ac.ir
3
دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان
AUTHOR
افشین
پرورده
parvardeh@sci.ui.ac.ir
4
دانشیار گروه آمار دانشکده علوم دانشگاه اصفهان
AUTHOR
- Aiyagari, S. R. (1994). Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(3), 659-684.
1
- Athreya, K. & Lahiri, S.N. (2006). Measure Theory and Probability Theory. Springer.
2
- Bailey, M.J. (1956). The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance. Journal of Political Economy, 64(2), 93-110.
3
- Bewley, T. (1980). The Optimum Quantity of Money. in Karekan, J. & Wallace, N. (1980). Models of Monetary Economics. Minneapolis, Minnesota. Federal Reserve Bank, 169-210.
4
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