Shahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577513220220622Investigating the Impact of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in the Presence of the National Development Fund: A structural Macro-econometric Model ApproachInvestigating the Impact of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in the Presence of the National Development Fund: A structural Macro-econometric Model Approach13510304910.29252/jem.2022.227659.1766FAZahra NorouziPhD in EconomicsMohammad NoferestiAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, IranMajeed MaddahAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, University of Semnan, Semnan, IranJournal Article20220619In this article, we have constructed a model with the inclusion of National Development Fund (NDF). The purpose of the model is conducting structural analysis and evaluating economic policies. The model consists of goods market, money market, exchange rate and labor market. The parameters of the model are estimated in the co-integration framework. Th (e annual data used are for the period 1960 - 2018. All behavioral equations are tested for the existence of co-integration by using Pesaran and Shin’s bond test approach. Not only each behavioral equations are confronted with a battery of statistical tests, but dynamic simulations are also used to validate the consistency of the model as a whole. Then, the effect of monetary and exchange rate policies with the help of model was examined under two scenarios: the existence of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its absence. The results show that the existence of the NDF has made the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policies in line with the desired gools much more appropriate.In this article, we have constructed a model with the inclusion of National Development Fund (NDF). The purpose of the model is conducting structural analysis and evaluating economic policies. The model consists of goods market, money market, exchange rate and labor market. The parameters of the model are estimated in the co-integration framework. Th (e annual data used are for the period 1960 - 2018. All behavioral equations are tested for the existence of co-integration by using Pesaran and Shin’s bond test approach. Not only each behavioral equations are confronted with a battery of statistical tests, but dynamic simulations are also used to validate the consistency of the model as a whole. Then, the effect of monetary and exchange rate policies with the help of model was examined under two scenarios: the existence of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its absence. The results show that the existence of the NDF has made the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policies in line with the desired gools much more appropriate.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_103049_e64cefa68ea0c166949381fc84850566.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577513220220622Investigating the Effect of Bank Facilities on Business Cycle in Services and Housing Sectors in Iran's EconomyInvestigating the Effect of Bank Facilities on Business Cycle in Services and Housing Sectors in Iran's Economy376310305010.29252/jem.2022.227883.1770FAFreydoun KhosraviPhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, IranSima Eskandari SabziAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, IranDavoud Hagh KhahAssistant Professor of Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, IranRostam GharehdaghiAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Marand Branch, Marand, IranAli SalmanpourAssistant Professor of Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh Branch, Miyaneh, IranJournal Article20220705Banks are the main part of the money market in Iran's economy. Therefore, determining the effect of bank facilities on production during recession and boom periods can be effective in applying better monetary policies. In this study we estimate the business cycles in housing and service sectors by using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the study also examines the effects of bank facilities on the business cycles of these sectors in Iran during the period 1978 to 2018 using the VECM method. The adjustment coefficient related to the estimated equilibrium relationship in the service and housing sectors shows that the speed of adjustment in housing is six times that of services, also the results show that bank facilities in the long run reduce the fluctuations of business cycles in the housing sector, while in the service sector, the fluctuations of business cycles generally have a downward trend.Banks are the main part of the money market in Iran's economy. Therefore, determining the effect of bank facilities on production during recession and boom periods can be effective in applying better monetary policies. In this study we estimate the business cycles in housing and service sectors by using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the study also examines the effects of bank facilities on the business cycles of these sectors in Iran during the period 1978 to 2018 using the VECM method. The adjustment coefficient related to the estimated equilibrium relationship in the service and housing sectors shows that the speed of adjustment in housing is six times that of services, also the results show that bank facilities in the long run reduce the fluctuations of business cycles in the housing sector, while in the service sector, the fluctuations of business cycles generally have a downward trend.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_103050_543d86a2745b367bf59eb9d9f47b379e.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577513220220622Investigating the Time-Frequency Volatility Spillover among Exchange Rate, Inflation, Stocks and Housing Prices in IranInvestigating the Time-Frequency Volatility Spillover among Exchange Rate, Inflation, Stocks and Housing Prices in Iran659310305110.29252/jem.2022.228781.1783FASoheil RoudariAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics Sciences and Administration, University of Qom, Qom, IranSaeed FarahanifardProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Economics Sciences and Administration, University of Qom, Qom, IranAbolfazl ShahabadiProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran0000-0002-9316-8296Omidali AdeliAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics Sciences and Administration, University of Qom, Qom, Iran0000-0002-1814-1990Journal Article20220914In the present study, the transferring and receiving, as well as the causal relationship of volatilities transmission according to the time-frequency across exchange rate, inflation, housing and stock market in the period of 2006:03-2022:03, is investigated using time-varying parameters vector autoregression model. The results show that the main relationship between the volatilities of the variables was in the short run. If short run exchange rate volatilities continue and lead to inflation and housing volatilities in the medium term, inflation and housing price volatilities will create the basis for transferring volatilities to the exchange rate. The stock market will be volatile with the increase in exchange rate volatility. Therefore, the control of exchange rate volatilities in the short term will prevent the increase of inflation and housing price volatilities. If the policymaker does not consider it, the exchange rate will volatile again in the medium term through the inflation and housing channel. Subsequently, the volatilities will transmit to the stock market intensively.In the present study, the transferring and receiving, as well as the causal relationship of volatilities transmission according to the time-frequency across exchange rate, inflation, housing and stock market in the period of 2006:03-2022:03, is investigated using time-varying parameters vector autoregression model. The results show that the main relationship between the volatilities of the variables was in the short run. If short run exchange rate volatilities continue and lead to inflation and housing volatilities in the medium term, inflation and housing price volatilities will create the basis for transferring volatilities to the exchange rate. The stock market will be volatile with the increase in exchange rate volatility. Therefore, the control of exchange rate volatilities in the short term will prevent the increase of inflation and housing price volatilities. If the policymaker does not consider it, the exchange rate will volatile again in the medium term through the inflation and housing channel. Subsequently, the volatilities will transmit to the stock market intensively.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_103051_8b4d0f1337d658d05902388ddad9aa9c.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577513220220622The Application of Frailty Models in Investigating the Factors Affecting the Risk of Recurrence of Recession: Experience of Iran and Selected CountriesThe Application of Frailty Models in Investigating the Factors Affecting the Risk of Recurrence of Recession: Experience of Iran and Selected Countries9512010305210.29252/jem.2022.228038.1772FAMahdi FazelPhD Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan(Khorasgan) Branch, Isfahan, Iran,Karim AzarbayjaniProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Science and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran0000000265610809Mostafa EmadzadehProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Science and Economics, University of Isfahan and Faculty of Management, Sheikh Baha'i University, Isfahan, IranJournal Article20220717Exploring the causes and factors creating the business cycles has been of interest to researchers in the field of economics for a long time, and many research based on various methods have been conducted in this field. The current research seeks to analyze the factors affecting the risk of recession recurrence in Iran and some sanctioned countries. Recession is assumed to be a recurrent disease, and the factors affecting its recurrence risk are investigated. For this purpose, frailty models defined under the parametric methods of survival analysis are used. The annual data of the 11 sanctioned countries considered in the period of 1990-2018 are received and their recession periods are determined using the Hadrick-Prescott filter. Then, by using a parametric model with a frailty component, the effect of inflation, ratio of fixed capital formation to government final consumption expenditures, oil prices and sanctions on the risk of recession recurrence is investigated. The results show that the effect of the variables on the risk of recession recurrence is not significant. Therefore, it can be concluded that according to the conditions of these countries, unknown and sometimes non-economic factors affect the risk of recession recurrence.Exploring the causes and factors creating the business cycles has been of interest to researchers in the field of economics for a long time, and many research based on various methods have been conducted in this field. The current research seeks to analyze the factors affecting the risk of recession recurrence in Iran and some sanctioned countries. Recession is assumed to be a recurrent disease, and the factors affecting its recurrence risk are investigated. For this purpose, frailty models defined under the parametric methods of survival analysis are used. The annual data of the 11 sanctioned countries considered in the period of 1990-2018 are received and their recession periods are determined using the Hadrick-Prescott filter. Then, by using a parametric model with a frailty component, the effect of inflation, ratio of fixed capital formation to government final consumption expenditures, oil prices and sanctions on the risk of recession recurrence is investigated. The results show that the effect of the variables on the risk of recession recurrence is not significant. Therefore, it can be concluded that according to the conditions of these countries, unknown and sometimes non-economic factors affect the risk of recession recurrence.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_103052_7570d805d161971081fb352b3804ebc0.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577513220220622Ranking of Economic Activities in Yazd Province Using Input - Output and TOPSIS Models (With Emphasis on Water Intensive)Ranking of Economic Activities in Yazd Province Using Input - Output and TOPSIS Models (With Emphasis on Water Intensive)12114510305310.29252/jem.2022.227519.1761FAFrnaz DehghanMA in Environmental Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd, IranZahra NasrollahiAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University, Yazd, IranJournal Article20220607In recent decades, the effort for economic growth, resources and environment of the country has faced many crises. This is while water, both as a vital element and as a factor of production, plays an important role in the survival of a society. Therefore, the attention of policy makers and planners is focused on the lack of this vital resource. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to prioritize economic activities in Yazd province by combining input-output model and TOPSIS method in order to have six criteria of link strength, employment, energy, pollution, water and value added with emphasis on the importance of water source. In terms of water intensity, the results indicate that, respectively, the activities of "other services", "construction" and "transportation" are the most important in comparison with other activities. In other words, the mentioned sections consume less water per unit of output. Relatively significant change in the prioritization of activities in terms of water consumption criteria indicates the importance of considering different criteria according to the local conditions of the regions. Since Yazd is located in the arid and water-scarce region of the country, these results show the importance of water intensity criteria in the development of this region.In recent decades, the effort for economic growth, resources and environment of the country has faced many crises. This is while water, both as a vital element and as a factor of production, plays an important role in the survival of a society. Therefore, the attention of policy makers and planners is focused on the lack of this vital resource. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to prioritize economic activities in Yazd province by combining input-output model and TOPSIS method in order to have six criteria of link strength, employment, energy, pollution, water and value added with emphasis on the importance of water source. In terms of water intensity, the results indicate that, respectively, the activities of "other services", "construction" and "transportation" are the most important in comparison with other activities. In other words, the mentioned sections consume less water per unit of output. Relatively significant change in the prioritization of activities in terms of water consumption criteria indicates the importance of considering different criteria according to the local conditions of the regions. Since Yazd is located in the arid and water-scarce region of the country, these results show the importance of water intensity criteria in the development of this region.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_103053_402c0cb9fcbdb02ed597e52cc8a822b0.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577513220220622Simulation of the Path and Peak of Gas Production from Iran's Independent Offshore Fields and Revenue Flow ScenariosSimulation of the Path and Peak of Gas Production from Iran's Independent Offshore Fields and Revenue Flow Scenarios14718110305410.29252/jem.2022.227800.1768FAHanieh MohammadaliMA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran,haniehmohammadaliRasam MoshrefiAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, IranJournal Article20220630Hubert's theory showed US oil production on a bell-like curve in 1956 and was introduced in the energy economics literature. This theory shows the lifespan, time trend and peak production of hydrocarbon reserves. In this research, the gas production from independent offshore gas fields, which provide about 60% of the country's natural gas production, was simulated. To compensate for the theoretical limitations of Hubert's model for not considering the dynamics in the ultimate recoverable reserves, the production process and cumulative production, the System Dynamics methodology were used. The model was used to simulate the production volume and present worth of the national wealth of gas produced from independent offshore fields. The simulation results indicate that in the base scenario, the peak production is in the year 1413 (Persian calendar) by 2263 million cubic meters per day of gas production, and the present value of the accumulated produced gas will be $1354 billion at a price of the year 1401. The simulations results show that extraction with an annual growth rate of 13% (average from the year 1390 to 1396) would only be possible up to the year 1404. Each one per cent increase in the recovery factor adds $11 billion to the present value of accumulated production, and a leakage of 10% of the recoverable reserves would cause an economic loss of $87 billion to the national wealth.Hubert's theory showed US oil production on a bell-like curve in 1956 and was introduced in the energy economics literature. This theory shows the lifespan, time trend and peak production of hydrocarbon reserves. In this research, the gas production from independent offshore gas fields, which provide about 60% of the country's natural gas production, was simulated. To compensate for the theoretical limitations of Hubert's model for not considering the dynamics in the ultimate recoverable reserves, the production process and cumulative production, the System Dynamics methodology were used. The model was used to simulate the production volume and present worth of the national wealth of gas produced from independent offshore fields. The simulation results indicate that in the base scenario, the peak production is in the year 1413 (Persian calendar) by 2263 million cubic meters per day of gas production, and the present value of the accumulated produced gas will be $1354 billion at a price of the year 1401. The simulations results show that extraction with an annual growth rate of 13% (average from the year 1390 to 1396) would only be possible up to the year 1404. Each one per cent increase in the recovery factor adds $11 billion to the present value of accumulated production, and a leakage of 10% of the recoverable reserves would cause an economic loss of $87 billion to the national wealth.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_103054_fc7e28ca9e130a25b4a178c59ca541a2.pdf