Shahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577515320250528Evaluating the Effect of Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap Shock on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods in IranEvaluating the Effect of Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap Shock on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods in Iran14810583710.48308/jem.2025.238146.1968FAAzadehAlikhaniPhD Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Isf.C., Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, IranSeyed KomailTayebiProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, IranSaeedDaei-KarimzadehAssociate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Isf.C., Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, IranJournal Article20250106A significant deviation of the official exchange rate from the market exchange rate is indicative of fundamental problems in macroeconomic policies and underlying imbalances in the economy. Maintaining a fixed exchange rate policy is neither sustained nor stable and leads to a range of distortions in the economy, which results in a lower growth rate in GDP. Given this, this study has investigated the Effect of the Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap Shock on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods (Exchange Rate Pass-through Approach) in Iran from 1979 to 2022. To this end, the study first identifies the most significant determinants of the consumer price index of imported goods using a Time-Varying Parameters Dynamic Model Averaging (TVP_DMA). Subsequently, the Effects of the Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap Shock on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods has been evaluated using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector-Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. Based on the results, the Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap Shock initially led to a significant increase in the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods. This effect was particularly pronounced during periods of economic instability. However, in the long run, the Effects on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods has diminished. Accordingly, it is recommended that policymakers reduce the Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap and implement stabilization policies to prevent excessive fluctuations and mitigate inflationary pressures on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods.A significant deviation of the official exchange rate from the market exchange rate is indicative of fundamental problems in macroeconomic policies and underlying imbalances in the economy. Maintaining a fixed exchange rate policy is neither sustained nor stable and leads to a range of distortions in the economy, which results in a lower growth rate in GDP. Given this, this study has investigated the Effect of the Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap Shock on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods (Exchange Rate Pass-through Approach) in Iran from 1979 to 2022. To this end, the study first identifies the most significant determinants of the consumer price index of imported goods using a Time-Varying Parameters Dynamic Model Averaging (TVP_DMA). Subsequently, the Effects of the Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap Shock on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods has been evaluated using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector-Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. Based on the results, the Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap Shock initially led to a significant increase in the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods. This effect was particularly pronounced during periods of economic instability. However, in the long run, the Effects on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods has diminished. Accordingly, it is recommended that policymakers reduce the Official and Unofficial Exchange Rate Market Gap and implement stabilization policies to prevent excessive fluctuations and mitigate inflationary pressures on the Import Price Index of Consumer Goods.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_105837_469fae4a521e64fe6701067cd2f51fc4.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577515320250528The Effect of Financing Government Expenditure on Macroeconomic Variables: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ApproachThe Effect of Financing Government Expenditure on Macroeconomic Variables: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach497510583810.48308/jem.2025.238284.1969FAYazdanGudarzi FarahaniAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, IranMohammad HosseinSabouri DeilamiAssistant Professor of Economics, Institute of Trade Studies and Research, Tehran, IranNaserElahiAssociate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Mofid University, Qom, IranJournal Article20250107The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of government spending financing shocks from the mechanism of printing money and issuing government bonds on macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, data from the period 1991-2023 were used. To analyze the effect of this shock, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used. Based on the results, it was determined that the inflationary effects of the shock from the monetary base disappeared faster when the government budget deficit was financed through the issuance of government bonds than when it was financed through money printing. In addition, both approaches have led to a decrease in household consumption spending due to inflationary effects and a decrease in purchasing power and have had fewer positive production effects. The findings suggest that policymakers should prioritize supply-side policies—such as enhancing production and income—over monetary or bond financing. Such an approach could improve tax revenues through economic growth while minimizing the adverse macroeconomic impacts.The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of government spending financing shocks from the mechanism of printing money and issuing government bonds on macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, data from the period 1991-2023 were used. To analyze the effect of this shock, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used. Based on the results, it was determined that the inflationary effects of the shock from the monetary base disappeared faster when the government budget deficit was financed through the issuance of government bonds than when it was financed through money printing. In addition, both approaches have led to a decrease in household consumption spending due to inflationary effects and a decrease in purchasing power and have had fewer positive production effects. The findings suggest that policymakers should prioritize supply-side policies—such as enhancing production and income—over monetary or bond financing. Such an approach could improve tax revenues through economic growth while minimizing the adverse macroeconomic impacts.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_105838_33057b5fa4219b784b795b6d0eb833f6.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577515320250528The Interaction of Economic Complexity and Economic Freedom on Natural Resource RentsThe Interaction of Economic Complexity and Economic Freedom on Natural Resource Rents7710510583910.48308/jem.2025.237611.1956FAAbolfazlShahabadiProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, IranSaminehGhasemifarAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management, Economics and Accounting, University of Hormozgan, Bandarabbas, IranMasoumeMalekghasemiM.A in Energy Economy, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, IranJournal Article20241118In recent decades, many countries have gained considerable wealth by exploiting natural resources. However, this wealth has not always led to sustainable development, and in many cases, dependence on natural resources has reduced economic diversity and even led to undeveloped traps. This phenomenon, known as the curse of resources, raises important questions about how natural resources are exploited and its effects on the economic structure of countries. The aim of the present study is to examine the interaction of economic complexity and economic freedom on the rents of natural resources of selected countries producing science during the period 2000-2021, with the panel data approach. Based on the results, the dimensions of economic complexity (including technological, research and commercial complexity), economic freedom and the interaction of economic complexity with economic freedom have a negative and meaningful impact on the rents of natural resources in selected countries. Also, the developing countries have not performed well compared to the developed countries in terms of technological, research and commercial complexity and require the concentration and expansion of these sectors; in the field of economic freedom, the developing countries have a poor performance compared to the developed countries.In recent decades, many countries have gained considerable wealth by exploiting natural resources. However, this wealth has not always led to sustainable development, and in many cases, dependence on natural resources has reduced economic diversity and even led to undeveloped traps. This phenomenon, known as the curse of resources, raises important questions about how natural resources are exploited and its effects on the economic structure of countries. The aim of the present study is to examine the interaction of economic complexity and economic freedom on the rents of natural resources of selected countries producing science during the period 2000-2021, with the panel data approach. Based on the results, the dimensions of economic complexity (including technological, research and commercial complexity), economic freedom and the interaction of economic complexity with economic freedom have a negative and meaningful impact on the rents of natural resources in selected countries. Also, the developing countries have not performed well compared to the developed countries in terms of technological, research and commercial complexity and require the concentration and expansion of these sectors; in the field of economic freedom, the developing countries have a poor performance compared to the developed countries.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_105839_e16421e27393ee1ea839be5c018ee73f.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577515320250528A New Approach to Examining the Possibility of Bilateral Interactions between Countries based on Productive Capacities: A Case Study of Iran and ChinaA New Approach to Examining the Possibility of Bilateral Interactions between Countries based on Productive Capacities: A Case Study of Iran and China10713510584010.48308/jem.2025.238369.1971FABehroozShahmoradiAssistant Professor of Economics, Department of Science, Technology and Innovation Financing and Economics, National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Tehran, IranJournal Article20250113For decades, researchers in the field of economic development have suggested that countries are likely to export new products that are align with the existing productive capabilities frontier of those countries or their neighbors. While there is consensus on this perspective, there is a lack of a clear understanding of an approach that can create an optimal balance between the development of related and unrelated productive capabilities. In this context, the present paper attempts to examine the possibility of bilateral economic interactions between Iran and China, using the approach of economic complexity as a new methodology. The findings indicate that, given its current capabilities, China has the potential to invest in over 28% of the products at the frontier of Iran's productive capabilities (14 product codes). Iran, on the other hand, can invest in more than 50 product codes with competitive strength (RCA>1) in the Chinese economy. From a categorization perspective, Iran has a better chance of investing in China's economy within the subset of chemical products, metals, and mining. Similarly, China can engage in the Iranian economy within the subset of machinery, chemicals, and metals. The results also have recommendations for policymakers and decision-makers in this area, including the application of this approach to international interactions, whether bilateral or multilateral, in the fields of science or technology.For decades, researchers in the field of economic development have suggested that countries are likely to export new products that are align with the existing productive capabilities frontier of those countries or their neighbors. While there is consensus on this perspective, there is a lack of a clear understanding of an approach that can create an optimal balance between the development of related and unrelated productive capabilities. In this context, the present paper attempts to examine the possibility of bilateral economic interactions between Iran and China, using the approach of economic complexity as a new methodology. The findings indicate that, given its current capabilities, China has the potential to invest in over 28% of the products at the frontier of Iran's productive capabilities (14 product codes). Iran, on the other hand, can invest in more than 50 product codes with competitive strength (RCA>1) in the Chinese economy. From a categorization perspective, Iran has a better chance of investing in China's economy within the subset of chemical products, metals, and mining. Similarly, China can engage in the Iranian economy within the subset of machinery, chemicals, and metals. The results also have recommendations for policymakers and decision-makers in this area, including the application of this approach to international interactions, whether bilateral or multilateral, in the fields of science or technology.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_105840_32a18765afe16bcf609639bf2ba83548.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577515320250528Simulation of Dynamic Analysis of the Interaction between the Carbon and Electricity Markets in IranSimulation of Dynamic Analysis of the Interaction between the Carbon and Electricity Markets in Iran13717710584110.48308/jem.2025.238120.1963FAHakimehArameshPhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, IranZeinolabedinSadeghiAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, IranSeyyed Abdul MajidJalaeeProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, IranSalimKarimi TakaloAssociate Professor of Management, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, IranJournal Article20241228Given the significant reliance on fossil fuels in Iran's power plants for electricity generation, managing pollution within the power sector has become crucial for the country. This paper addresses the importance of carbon emissions by dynamically examining the relationship between carbon and electricity markets. The novelty of this research lies in its dynamic analysis of the interplay between carbon and electricity markets in Iran, considering the country's unique circumstances and employing different scenarios. The findings reveal a deep interdependence between Iran's carbon and electricity markets. Factors such as gas prices, carbon taxes, emission coefficients, and electricity demand exert mutual influence on both markets. An increase in gas prices or the implementation of a carbon tax raises electricity production costs, consequently driving up electricity prices and the demand for carbon allowances. This, in turn, enhances the effectiveness of the carbon market in reducing emissions. Conversely, growth in electricity demand and the emission coefficient place greater pressure on the carbon market, underscoring the necessity for investments in clean energy and emission reduction technologies. To achieve emission reduction targets and promote sustainability, a set of synergistic policies is proposed. These include promoting renewable energy sources, reforming electricity pricing mechanisms, phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, strengthening the carbon market, and implementing demand-side management strategies.Given the significant reliance on fossil fuels in Iran's power plants for electricity generation, managing pollution within the power sector has become crucial for the country. This paper addresses the importance of carbon emissions by dynamically examining the relationship between carbon and electricity markets. The novelty of this research lies in its dynamic analysis of the interplay between carbon and electricity markets in Iran, considering the country's unique circumstances and employing different scenarios. The findings reveal a deep interdependence between Iran's carbon and electricity markets. Factors such as gas prices, carbon taxes, emission coefficients, and electricity demand exert mutual influence on both markets. An increase in gas prices or the implementation of a carbon tax raises electricity production costs, consequently driving up electricity prices and the demand for carbon allowances. This, in turn, enhances the effectiveness of the carbon market in reducing emissions. Conversely, growth in electricity demand and the emission coefficient place greater pressure on the carbon market, underscoring the necessity for investments in clean energy and emission reduction technologies. To achieve emission reduction targets and promote sustainability, a set of synergistic policies is proposed. These include promoting renewable energy sources, reforming electricity pricing mechanisms, phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, strengthening the carbon market, and implementing demand-side management strategies.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_105841_ba2dd2680e9d49af6e4547777b176107.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577515320250528Investigating the Effects of Government Spending Shock on Output and Inflation in Afghanistan: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ApproachInvestigating the Effects of Government Spending Shock on Output and Inflation in Afghanistan: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach17721010584210.48308/jem.2025.237686.1958FAMohammad SadeqMohammadiPhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Tehran, IranMostafaKarimzadehAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Tehran, IranTaghiEbrahimi SalariAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Tehran, IranJournal Article20241126This study aims to examine the fluctuations of fiscal policy (government expenditure shocks) on Afghanistan's economic performance, particularly on output and inflation, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. Employing a general equilibrium model based on the New Keynesian macroeconomic theory. The simulation results indicate that a sudden increase in government expenditure can stimulate economic growth and enhance output levels in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the findings suggest that expansionary fiscal policies can reduce unemployment rates and improve the employment situation in the country. However, fiscal policies should be designed considering budgetary constraints and the country’s economic capacities to ensure their long-term effectiveness. Excessive government spending in the long term, however, may lead to higher inflation rates and exacerbate budget deficits. Therefore, the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, strict monitoring of public expenditures, and adopting transparency-based approaches can amplify the positive effects of fiscal policies while mitigating potential risks.This study aims to examine the fluctuations of fiscal policy (government expenditure shocks) on Afghanistan's economic performance, particularly on output and inflation, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. Employing a general equilibrium model based on the New Keynesian macroeconomic theory. The simulation results indicate that a sudden increase in government expenditure can stimulate economic growth and enhance output levels in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the findings suggest that expansionary fiscal policies can reduce unemployment rates and improve the employment situation in the country. However, fiscal policies should be designed considering budgetary constraints and the country’s economic capacities to ensure their long-term effectiveness. Excessive government spending in the long term, however, may lead to higher inflation rates and exacerbate budget deficits. Therefore, the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, strict monitoring of public expenditures, and adopting transparency-based approaches can amplify the positive effects of fiscal policies while mitigating potential risks.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_105842_ee3dcb3ae94992b121b4711370d1289f.pdf