Shahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577572820170219Estimating Composite Vulnerability and Resilience Index of Iranian EconomyEstimating Composite Vulnerability and Resilience Index of Iranian Economy12945054FAEsmaiel AbounooriProfessor of Econometric & Social Statistics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University0000-0003-4168-7163Hassan LajevardiPhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan UniversityJournal Article20160517The main aim in this research is to introduce the concepts of vulnerability and resilience regarding the quantitative Indices. Vulnerability is a structural characteristic which increases the weak economic points to external shocks. Economic resilience is political ability to resist and recovering from the shocks. In this paper Vulnerability and Resilience Indices are estimated for Iranian Economy concerning the period 1990-2013. The indices are estimated based on three models introduced by Briguglio, & et al.(2008), Boorman, & et al.(2013) and Angeon & Bates(2015) which are compared regarding Construction period (1990-1997), Reforms period (1998-2005) and Kindness period (2006-2013). The results show that the estimated mean of Vulnerability during Kindness period has been higher while the Resilience index during Reforms period has been higher than the other two periods. Also, the growth rate of per capita GNP has indirect relation with vulnerability and direct relation with resilience. Therefore, economic policy modification aiming less reliance on oil income, export diversification and expansion, budget deficit reduction by financial discipline, inflation curbing by increasing efficiency and equity, reducing unemployment by increasing quality of education, plus good Governance(reduction in Corruption, increasing policy stability, quality of regulation, government effectiveness concerning eligibility) with wise performance shall increase resilience and reduce vulnerability.The main aim in this research is to introduce the concepts of vulnerability and resilience regarding the quantitative Indices. Vulnerability is a structural characteristic which increases the weak economic points to external shocks. Economic resilience is political ability to resist and recovering from the shocks. In this paper Vulnerability and Resilience Indices are estimated for Iranian Economy concerning the period 1990-2013. The indices are estimated based on three models introduced by Briguglio, & et al.(2008), Boorman, & et al.(2013) and Angeon & Bates(2015) which are compared regarding Construction period (1990-1997), Reforms period (1998-2005) and Kindness period (2006-2013). The results show that the estimated mean of Vulnerability during Kindness period has been higher while the Resilience index during Reforms period has been higher than the other two periods. Also, the growth rate of per capita GNP has indirect relation with vulnerability and direct relation with resilience. Therefore, economic policy modification aiming less reliance on oil income, export diversification and expansion, budget deficit reduction by financial discipline, inflation curbing by increasing efficiency and equity, reducing unemployment by increasing quality of education, plus good Governance(reduction in Corruption, increasing policy stability, quality of regulation, government effectiveness concerning eligibility) with wise performance shall increase resilience and reduce vulnerability.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_45054_5e100edccaf94d234532c381e11c29a9.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577572820170219Real Exchange Rate and Mechanism of J and S Curves among Iran and its Major Trade PartnersReal Exchange Rate and Mechanism of J and S Curves among Iran and its Major Trade Partners315345055FAMehdi YazdaniAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University0000-0002-8045-7232Rahim JangiMA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti UniversityJournal Article20160313Although studies about responses of trade balance to exchange rate volatilities have been considered static until 1970s, the entering of J-curve phenomenon in international economics studies lead attention to short-run dynamics response of trade balance to exchange rate volatilities. Moreover, new approach of S-curve have been introduced for investigating short-run effects of real exchange rate volatilities on trade balance in recent decades which can be useful for policy implications. Using a suitable model, this study tries to investigate the existence of J and S curves among Iran and its 16 major trade partners. In tis regards, an auto-regressive distributed lags model have been used to estimate short-run trade balance equation and J-curve and the cross-correlation have been used to investigate S-curve during 1985-2014. The results show that J and S curve phenomenon of bilateral trade balance is confirmed for almost countries. Hence policy makers should apply suitable policies for bilateral exchange rate to minimize losses caused from real exchange rate fluctuations. Although studies about responses of trade balance to exchange rate volatilities have been considered static until 1970s, the entering of J-curve phenomenon in international economics studies lead attention to short-run dynamics response of trade balance to exchange rate volatilities. Moreover, new approach of S-curve have been introduced for investigating short-run effects of real exchange rate volatilities on trade balance in recent decades which can be useful for policy implications. Using a suitable model, this study tries to investigate the existence of J and S curves among Iran and its 16 major trade partners. In tis regards, an auto-regressive distributed lags model have been used to estimate short-run trade balance equation and J-curve and the cross-correlation have been used to investigate S-curve during 1985-2014. The results show that J and S curve phenomenon of bilateral trade balance is confirmed for almost countries. Hence policy makers should apply suitable policies for bilateral exchange rate to minimize losses caused from real exchange rate fluctuations. https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_45055_0f207f2ba2f750c865748c8bd7d95a0d.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577572820170219The Impact of Public Expenditures Reallocation on
Long-Run Economic Growth in IranThe Impact of Public Expenditures Reallocation on
Long-Run Economic Growth in Iran558445056FAMojtaba EhsaniPh.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, University of MazandaranSaeed Karimi PotanlarAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of MazandaranAhmad JafarisamimiProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, University of Mazandaran0000000290476189Journal Article20160705The limitation of financial resources of the government in developing countries, caused these governments to consider the issue of "efficient allocation of expenditures" as a very high priorities in these countries. Accordingly, this paper examines the impact of public expenditure reallocations on economic growth in Iran. To do so, a long-run relationship between the variables has been estimated using cointegration method for the period 1980-2014. The results show that reallocation of government resources have a significant positive effect on economic growth, under the condition of raising the educational expenditure compensated by the reducing military and consumption expenditures. In addition, the findings of the paper show a reduction in consumption, military and health expenditures, in the favor of increasing government investment expenditure, have a significant and positive impact on the economic growth. Finally, the findings support a significant and positive impact of human capital and openness on economic growth.The limitation of financial resources of the government in developing countries, caused these governments to consider the issue of "efficient allocation of expenditures" as a very high priorities in these countries. Accordingly, this paper examines the impact of public expenditure reallocations on economic growth in Iran. To do so, a long-run relationship between the variables has been estimated using cointegration method for the period 1980-2014. The results show that reallocation of government resources have a significant positive effect on economic growth, under the condition of raising the educational expenditure compensated by the reducing military and consumption expenditures. In addition, the findings of the paper show a reduction in consumption, military and health expenditures, in the favor of increasing government investment expenditure, have a significant and positive impact on the economic growth. Finally, the findings support a significant and positive impact of human capital and openness on economic growth.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_45056_119db2da1f7e2966a6f38d5b8465a505.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577572820170219The Impact of Corruption and Liquidity Control on Economic Growth in Selected Developing CountriesThe Impact of Corruption and Liquidity Control on Economic Growth in Selected Developing Countries8510645057FAS. Jmaledin Mohseni ZonouziAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia UniversitySamad Hekmati FaridAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia UniversitySomayyeh TalebpourM.A in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia UniversityJournal Article20160129Nowadays the corruption is a problem that is faced by all countries, whether developed or less developed.. On the other hand, the stability of liquidity are the main factor of economic stability. Uncontrolled growth of liquidity leads to higher speculative demand for money and growth of non-productive sectors in economy and the corruption occurs in such condition. <br /> Due to the relationship between liquidity and corruption and their effects on economic growth, this paper is aimed to investigate the impact of controlling corruption on GDP through liquidity channel. In this study, GMM dynamic panel method for 31 selected developing countries is used. The results of estimation for the period 2002 -2012 indicates that Control of corruption in developing countries has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Also in situation of Simultaneous increase in Control of corruption and Liquidity, increasing of Liquidity can improve economic growth via more Control of corruption. Moreover results indicate that increasing of globalization and per capita capital has a significant positive effect on economic growth.Nowadays the corruption is a problem that is faced by all countries, whether developed or less developed.. On the other hand, the stability of liquidity are the main factor of economic stability. Uncontrolled growth of liquidity leads to higher speculative demand for money and growth of non-productive sectors in economy and the corruption occurs in such condition. <br /> Due to the relationship between liquidity and corruption and their effects on economic growth, this paper is aimed to investigate the impact of controlling corruption on GDP through liquidity channel. In this study, GMM dynamic panel method for 31 selected developing countries is used. The results of estimation for the period 2002 -2012 indicates that Control of corruption in developing countries has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Also in situation of Simultaneous increase in Control of corruption and Liquidity, increasing of Liquidity can improve economic growth via more Control of corruption. Moreover results indicate that increasing of globalization and per capita capital has a significant positive effect on economic growth.https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_45057_19bdc369a140635cf8d1fa9dea738457.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577572820170219The Relationship between Financial Stability and Concentration in Iran's Banking SystemThe Relationship between Financial Stability and Concentration in Iran's Banking System10813745058FANazariyan RafikAssistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran BranchSiavash Golzarian PourAssistant Professor of Economics, Iran Banking InstituteMoradPour MasoudMA in Banking, Bank Melli IranJournal Article20160302This paper examines the relationship between financial stability and macroeconomics variables and banking concentration in Iranian banking system for the period 1385-1393 (2006-2014). <br />In this study, Herfindal-Hirschman index (HHI) as a concenteration index and inverted non-performing loans ratio are used to measure banking concentration and financial stability respectively. In addition, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, bank lending rate and market share are considered as macroeconomics variables. In order to estimate the relationship, a balanced dynamic panel with generalized method of moments (GMM) is used. The result indicates that the banking concentration,inflation, GDP growth rate, interest rate and market share has a statistically significant impact on non-performing loans and therefore on the Bank's financial stability. <br /><strong> </strong>This paper examines the relationship between financial stability and macroeconomics variables and banking concentration in Iranian banking system for the period 1385-1393 (2006-2014). <br />In this study, Herfindal-Hirschman index (HHI) as a concenteration index and inverted non-performing loans ratio are used to measure banking concentration and financial stability respectively. In addition, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, bank lending rate and market share are considered as macroeconomics variables. In order to estimate the relationship, a balanced dynamic panel with generalized method of moments (GMM) is used. The result indicates that the banking concentration,inflation, GDP growth rate, interest rate and market share has a statistically significant impact on non-performing loans and therefore on the Bank's financial stability. <br /><strong> </strong>https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_45058_e01edcfb47c8e2a1db8183be6797f748.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityJournal of Economics and Modelling2476-577572820170219Analyzing the Relationship among Government, Central Bank and Speculators in Iran: Approach of Game Theory and Nash EquilibriumAnalyzing the Relationship among Government, Central Bank and Speculators in Iran: Approach of Game Theory and Nash Equilibrium13916745059FANasrin MansouriPhD Student and; Academic Coach in PAYAM NOOR UniversityYeganeh Mosavi JahromyAssociate Professor of Payam Noor UniversityAsghar AbolhasaniAssociate Professor of Payam Noor UniversityBita ShayeganiAssistant Professor of PAYAM NOOR UniversityJournal Article20161124The experience of recent years has shown monetary policies have caused economic fluctuations rather than affect real economy because of administrative interest rate, issuing bonds and increasing their returns. These actions not only have increase the cost of government borrowing, but also increasing the minimum rates of absorbing capital in other markets and finally increased the general level of prices as well. In such situation, study about the relationship between fiscal and monetary authorities and speculators to achieving economic goals is important.therefore, in this paper,the relationship between three players, including government, central bank and speculators, has been analyzed using game theory according to Nash approaches in Iran, during (1384- 1388). For this purpose, a loss function (objective function) is defined for each player and via them the social loss is calculated. For obtaining quantitative results GAMS and MAPLE software have been used. Based on the results, the minimum of social loss along with improving speculators welfare (less loss) is obtained through central bank independence from the government. The experience of recent years has shown monetary policies have caused economic fluctuations rather than affect real economy because of administrative interest rate, issuing bonds and increasing their returns. These actions not only have increase the cost of government borrowing, but also increasing the minimum rates of absorbing capital in other markets and finally increased the general level of prices as well. In such situation, study about the relationship between fiscal and monetary authorities and speculators to achieving economic goals is important.therefore, in this paper,the relationship between three players, including government, central bank and speculators, has been analyzed using game theory according to Nash approaches in Iran, during (1384- 1388). For this purpose, a loss function (objective function) is defined for each player and via them the social loss is calculated. For obtaining quantitative results GAMS and MAPLE software have been used. Based on the results, the minimum of social loss along with improving speculators welfare (less loss) is obtained through central bank independence from the government. https://ecoj.sbu.ac.ir/article_45059_2d5ea6091b7745fc5f8f6d8ab5be8e1f.pdf