تحلیل اثر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای بر شدت انرژی در بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید اشرفی اصفهانی، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

به طور کلی سرمایه‌گذاری در تکنولوژی‌های جدید چه از طریق جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و چه از طریق واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای، موجب کاهش شدت انرژی می‌شود. بر این اساس، هدف اصلی این پژوهش ارزیابی و مقایسه اثر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای بر شدت انرژی بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران است. برای این منظور از داده‌های جمعی‌سازی نشده در بخش‌های کشاورزی، حمل ونقل و صنعت و معدن طی دوره 1396-1372 استفاده و با روش آرلانو و باند در فضای داده‌های تابلویی، الگوی مورد نظر برآورد شده است. علاوه‌بر دو متغیر فوق، از شاخص قیمت انرژی، ارزش افزوده و مجذور آن، درجه باز بودن تجاری و شاخص قیمت تولید کننده هر بخش و نرخ ارز حقیقی به عنوان متغیرهای توضیحی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی با یک وقفه، اثر معنادار و منفی بر شدت انرژی در همه بخش‌های اقتصادی دارد، در حالی که واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای اثر معناداری بر شدت انرژی بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران نداشته و حتی ضریب با وقفه آن، شدت انرژی را افزایش داده است. علاوه‌براین ارزش افزوده، شاخص قیمت انرژی و باز بودن تجاری بخش‌ها رابطه منفی با شدت انرژی دارد. در نهایت شاخص قیمت بهای تولید کننده و نرخ ارز حقیقی رابطه مثبت با شدت انرژی دارد. بر این اساس، جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی نسبت به واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای به منظور کاهش شدت انرژی در بخش‌های اقتصادی در الویت قرار است

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment and Import of Capital Goods on Energy Intensity in Iranian Economic Sectors

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahdi Yazdani 1
  • Hossein Tavakoli 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Shahid Ashrafi Esfahani University, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Generally, investment in new technology through foreign direct investment or import of capital goods can lead to decrease energy intensity. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the effect of foreign direct investment and import of capital goods on energy intensity of Iranian economic sectors. In this regard, disaggregated data for the sectors of agriculture, transportation, industry, and mine have been used during 1993-2018 and the model has been estimated by Arellano and Bond method. Other than two above mentioned variables, energy price index, value added and its square, trade openness, producer price index and exchange rate have been used as explanatory variables. The results show that the lag of foreign direct investment has significant and negative effect on energy intensity in economic sectors, while import of capital goods has no significant effect and even the lag of this variable has increased it. Moreover, value added, energy price index and trade openness have negative relation with energy intensity. Finally, producer price index and exchange rate have positive relation with energy intensity. Hence, absorption of foreign direct investment than import of capital goods is important to reduce energy intensity in Iranian economic sectors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Intensity
  • Foreign Direct Investment
  • Capital Goods
  • Dynamic Panel Data Model

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