Journal of Economics and Modelling

Journal of Economics and Modelling

The Role of Economic Factors and Institutional Quality in Shaping Cross-Border Migration Flows: Evidence from Selected Middle Eastern Countries

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
Abstract
Cross-border migration is one of the most significant consequences of economic inequality and weak governance in developing countries, particularly in the Middle East region. This study aims to analyze the simultaneous impact of economic and institutional variables on migration, focusing on the effects of unemployment rate, per capita income growth, exchange rate, political stability, and control of corruption across six selected Middle Eastern countries: Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Pakistan, and Egypt over the period 1974–2023. Utilizing panel data and applying a fixed effects model, the findings reveal that high unemployment and exchange rate volatility are key drivers of migration, while improvements in per capita income, political stability, and control of corruption have a statistically significant deterrent effect. Hence, the results show that unemployment and exchange rate volatility drive migration, while income growth, political stability, and corruption control reduce it. Policy recommendations include labor market reform, macroeconomic stabilization, and institutional improvements.
Keywords

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