Journal of Economics and Modelling

Journal of Economics and Modelling

Currency Competition in the International Monetary System: A Strategic Analysis of the Dollar, Euro, and Yuan Using Game Theory

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan
2 Department of Mathematics, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan,
3 Economic Department, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan Iran
10.48308/jem.2026.243719.2048
Abstract
Currency wars are among the most significant manifestations of economic competition in the international system. Despite the central role of the US dollar in global transactions, the expanding use of the euro and yuan has paved the way for a three-way rivalry. This study examines the strategic interaction among these three currencies using game theory, data on currency shares in global payments, and the SDR index from October 2016 to September 2025. Nash, Stackelberg, and supportive equilibria are derived and compared. The results indicate that the dollar maintains its dominant position, with higher demand and profitability than the euro and yuan. In more complex chain scenarios, the only instance where the dollar's profit declines is when the euro and yuan simultaneously hold leading positions—the sole situation that narrows the gap between the currencies. These findings suggest that merely being a leader in the currency game does not equate to winning; true power lies in scale, global acceptance, liquidity, and supporting financial institutions. From a policy perspective for Iran, the economy is more vulnerable than others to the consequences of currency wars due to international sanctions. Diversifying foreign exchange reserves, expanding the use of local currencies in trade, and establishing bilateral and multilateral monetary agreements with allied countries are practical strategies derived from the model to reduce dollar dependence and enhance the resilience of Iran's economy against external shocks.
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