اثر تغییر ساختار سنی جمعیت بر اجزای تقاضای پول در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

در ادبیات اقتصادی، تقاضای پول معمولاً به چند متغیر کلیدیِ درآمد، نرخ بهره، نرخ ارز و نرخ تورم ارتباط داده می‌شود. اما در جوامعی که توزیع سنی جمعیت آن به گونه فاحشی تغییرکرده است، ساختار سنی جمعیت نیز متغییر توضیح دهنده مهمی است که باید در یک تابع تقاضای پول به خوبی تصریح شده، مورد توجه قرار گیرد. فقدان وجود متغیری در تابع تقاضای پول که تغییر ساختار سنی جمعیت را لحاظ کند، ممکن است به یک رابطه همجمعی نیانجامد. در نتیجه پارامترهای برآورده شده قابل اتکا نخواهند بود. در این مقاله ، به کمک نظریه مصرف دوران زندگی اندو و مادیگلیانی ، سه تابع تقاضا برای اجزاء نقدینگی تصریح شده است که دربردارنده متغیری برای نشان دادان تغییرات ساختار سنی جمعیت در جامعه است. معادلات تصریح شده با استفاده از داده های سری زمانی سال‌های  1348تا 1393 به روش  ARDL برآورد شده اند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که با افزایش نسبت جمعیت میان‌سال، به دلیل پایین بودن میل توسط به مصرف این گروه، تقاضا برای اسکناس و مسکوک و همچنین تقاضا برای سپرده‌های دیداری کاهش می‌یابد، اما در عوض تقاضا برای سپرده های مدت‌دار بانکی گرایش به افزایش دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Population Age Structure Change on the Component of Money Demand in the Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Noferesti
  • Samaneh Javaherdehi
  • Masoud Abdollahi
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

In the literature, money demand is usually related to some key variables such as income, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation. But in the societies that population age distribution has changed drastically, age structure is also an important explanatory variable that should be considered in a well defined money demand function. The absence of such variable from money demand function might not lead to a co-integrated equation. Hence the estimated parameters would not be reliable. In this article, by the aid of Ando and Modigliani’s life cycle theory of consumption, three money functions are specified for the components of liquidity that encompasses a variable which represents changes in the age distribution of the society. The specified equations are estimated using time series data for the period 1959 to 2014. ARDL method of estimation is adopted. The results show that by increasing the portion of middle age group in the population, who’s marginal propensity to consume is low, the demand for currency and checking accounts decreases while the demand for time deposits tend to increase.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Money Demand
  • Population Age Structure
  • ARDL

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