Investigating the Factors Affecting the Risk of Recession Relapse in Selected Sanctioned Countries: The Survival Analysis Approach

Document Type : Original Article


1 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Islamic Azad University (Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch), Isfahan, Iran

2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Science and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

3 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management, Sheikh Bahaei University, Isfahan, Iran


In order to investigate the reasons for the formation of business cycles, several studies have been conducted using various methods. But one of the topics that can be considered in this area is the study of factors affecting the risk of relapse, especially in countries under sanctions, which in the present study is done in a different way and based on survival analysis. Recession is considered as a recurrent disease in the economy and the factors affecting its risk of recurrence are examined. For this purpose, first, the annual data of 11 selected sanctioned countries in the period 1990-2018 are received from the World Bank website, and using the Hodrick–Prescott filter, their recession periods are determined. Then, using the approach of survival analysis based on recurring events, the effect of variables such as inflation, the ratio of fix capital formation to GDP, the ratio of government consumption expenditure to GDP, percentage of oil revenues from GDP, sanctions, and oil prices on the risk of recurrence of the recession is examined. The results show that except for inflation and the price of oil, which increases the risk of relapse, the effect of other variables on the risk of relapse is not significant.


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