Investigating the Impact of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in the Presence of the National Development Fund: A structural Macro-econometric Model Approach

Document Type : Original Article


1 PhD in Economics

2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran



In this article, we have constructed a model with the inclusion of National Development Fund (NDF). The purpose of the model is conducting structural analysis and evaluating economic policies. The model consists of goods market, money market, exchange rate and labor market. The parameters of the model are estimated in the co-integration framework. Th (e annual data used are for the period 1960 - 2018. All behavioral equations are tested for the existence of co-integration by using Pesaran and Shin’s bond test approach. Not only each behavioral equations are confronted with a battery of statistical tests, but dynamic simulations are also used to validate the consistency of the model as a whole. Then, the effect of monetary and exchange rate policies with the help of model was examined under two scenarios: the existence of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its absence. The results show that the existence of the NDF has made the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policies in line with the desired gools much more appropriate.


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