Identifying the Factors Affecting the Horizontal Diversification of Export by Introduction a New Index of Export Diversification

Document Type : Original Article


1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor of Economic, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran



The horizontal diversification of exports has a unique role in the stability of foreign exchange earnings, long-term sustainable growth and improvement of the exchange relationship. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting the horizontal diversification of non-oil exports in the short and long term, using autoregression distributed lag method during 1995-2021. First, a new index of export diversity is designed, which is more comprehensive than the existing indices. Then, this innovative index, for Iran and the major export destination countries, calculated and determined the position of Iran's export diversity among these countries. Also, with a new approach in estimating non-oil export diversity, variables such as non-oil foreign direct investment and non-oil domestic investment are used, so the effective factors of export diversity can be better identified. The results indicate that the variables of non-oil foreign direct investment and exchange rate do not have effects on the export diversity index in the long term. Research and development costs and non-oil gross fixed investment have a positive effect on export diversity in the long term. The variable of granting loans to the non-governmental sector has had negative effects on the dependent variable in the long term. The embargo has also had a negative impact on export diversity in the long term. According to the results, increasing the government's research and development budget and granting loans to export-oriented companies with the aim of enhancing research and development operations in these companies and investing in the non-oil sector can be a way to improve export diversification.


Main Subjects

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