Investigating Structural Changes in Iran and Gas Exporting Countries with Emphasis on Gas Price and Productivity

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran

2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran

3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran

10.29252/jem.2023.229045.1793

Abstract

Energy, as one of the important inputs of production, has a special place in the economic development and progress of every country. Therefore, checking the price of gas can be important for Iran and countries with oil and gas resources. In addition, based on the past trend of gas prices in the world market, we can conclude that gas prices have always been affected by global oil prices. Considering the role of specialized labor in the two oil and gas sectors of the studied countries, it is important to be able to determine the simultaneous effect of the gas price and the total factor productivity on the transfer of labor between these two economic sectors. This research used the dynamic computable general equilibrium model and the social accounting matrix of 2014, and according to the dynamics of the model, the change process has been predicted for the years 2022-2030. The results indicate that, with the increase in the price of gas and the total factor productivity, skilled and unskilled labor is transferred from the oil sector to gas for Iran and the GECF, and this trend is also in the long term. Also, this impulse led to an increase of capital and land used in the gas sector of gas exporting countries by 88 and 57% respectively, and in Iran, capital and land used in the gas sector were estimated 5 and 5%. Therefore, bargaining to increase the price of gas and using additional methods to increase productivity can lead to structural changes that to serve the economic growth of Iran and GECF.

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References

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Journal of Economics and Modelling
Volume 13, Issue 3 - Serial Number 51
December 2022
Pages 125-146

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