Assessment of the Impact of Sanctions on Iranian Provinces: A Fuzzy Logic Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University of Hamedan, Hamedan, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan-Iran

10.48308/jem.2025.240887.2001

Abstract

In recent decades, economic sanctions have become a widely used instrument in international relations, exerting substantial pressure on the economic indicators of targeted countries. Most existing studies have conducted analyses at the national level using dummy variables a methodological approach that does not adequately capture the intensity, nonlinear dynamics, and regional disparities of sanctions. To address this gap, this study develops a regional index to measure the intensity of economic sanctions across Iranian provinces from 2006 to 2021. The index is constructed using fuzzy logic and is based on three key indicators: inflation, unemployment, and per capita gross domestic product. Variable selection is performed via factor analysis, and the index is calculated using MATLAB. The resulting index yields a continuous score between zero and one for each province and year, indicating the relative severity of sanction-induced pressure. Findings reveal that the impact of sanctions is not uniformly distributed across provinces; some regions have been significantly more affected due to structural differences, economic capacities, and regional constraints. These results underscore the importance of incorporating spatial disparities into economic and social policymaking. They also provide a robust empirical basis for designing regionally targeted strategies to mitigate the effects of sanctions and enhance economic resilience.

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