A Nonlinear Analysis of Unemployment and Inflation Effects on Outward Migration from Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD student in Monetary Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Management, Urmia University

Abstract

Outward migration from Iran has, in recent decades, emerged as a salient consequence of macroeconomic instability, particularly inflation and unemployment. Given pervasive macro-level uncertainty, structural rigidities, and asymmetric behavioral responses, positive and negative shocks to these variables are expected to exert differential effects on migration decisions. This study employs a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to examine the asymmetric impacts of inflation and unemployment on Iran’s outward migration over the period 1974–2023. The findings indicate that positive shocks to inflation and unemployment generate strong and statistically significant push effects on migration, whereas negative shocks exhibit markedly weaker and limited deterrent effects. In addition, real per capita income and foreign direct investment are found to reduce migration in the long run, while population growth intensifies migration pressures. The primary contribution of this research lies in identifying the behavioral rigidity of migration and providing empirical evidence of asymmetric macroeconomic effects, demonstrating that the disruptive force of crises in stimulating emigration outweighs the restraining capacity of stabilization. Accordingly, policy emphasis on anchoring inflation expectations, implementing structural labor market reforms, and mitigating institutional uncertainty is recommended to achieve a sustained containment of outward migration.

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Journal of Economics and Modelling
Volume 16, Issue 3 - Serial Number 63
February 2026
Pages 103-134

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