Journal of Economics and Modelling

Journal of Economics and Modelling

The Impact of Government Financing Methods on Macroeconomic Variable (SVAR Approach, iran, 1996–2023)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Department of Islamic Economics, Economics faculty of Allameh Tabataba'i University Tehran Iran
2 Department of Islamic Economics, Economics faculty of Allameh Tabataba'i University
3 Department of Theoretical Economics, Faculty of economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.
10.48308/jem.2026.243973.2054
Abstract
This study compares government financing methods in Iran over 1996–2023 regarding macroeconomic goals using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach. Variables include four financing methods—oil revenues, taxation, bond issuance, and monetary financing—and four macroeconomic variables—inflation, growth, unemployment, and economic justice. Findings show that monetary financing has no desirable effect on any macroeconomic variable. In contrast, bond issuance positively affects growth, employment, and economic justice and can be the best alternative for covering the budget deficit. A comparison of tax and oil revenues reveals both the disinflationary effect and the unemployment-increasing effect of taxation are stronger and more persistent than those of oil, and unlike oil, taxation reduces economic justice in the short run. The optimal financing mix depends on policy priorities. If inflation control is the priority, taxation is recommended, provided its adverse effects on unemployment are mitigated by allocating a portion of oil revenues and bonds to employment generation. If unemployment reduction is the priority, less weight should be given to taxation and a higher share of oil and bonds should be adopted instead, as oil drives growth and bonds reduce unemployment. Under stagflationary conditions, a balanced mix of three methods is recommended: taxation to curb inflation, bonds to cover the budget deficit and reduce unemployment, and oil to mitigate the negative effects of taxation on economic justice and support growth. Under these conditions, monetary financing remains the last resort due to its inflationary effects and exacerbation of unemployment.
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