The Effect of Global Changes in the US Dollar Value and Oil Prices on Trade Balance and Economic Growth of the Iranian Economy: A study within a Structural Macro-econometric Model Framework

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University

2 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University.

Abstract

In this paper, a relatively small scale Structural Macro-econometric Model is constructed to study the effect of changes in the US dollar value and the price of oil on trade balance and economic growth of Iran. The model contains 24 long run and short run behavioral equations, 11 connecting equations and 27 definitional equations and identities. Within The methodology of co-integration, all the parameters of the equations in the model are estimated using ARDL technique and time series data for the period 1936 to 2012. The appropriateness of the constructed model is assessed by the related statistical tests and dynamic simulations. The simulation results indicate that when the oil price increase in the world market is due to a US dollar depreciation against other currencies, on one hand, Iran’s dollar revenue increases but on the other hand, imports also increases. Fallowing a jump in the world’s oil prices, yet the general domestic price level tends to increase due to the imported inflation. In all, simulation results show that the increase in dollar revenue due to the depreciation of dollar and hence the increase in oil prices, do not reduce the growth rate of the Iranian economy. Thus, even if it is perceived that an increase in income of the oil exporting countries due to an increase in oil prices will reduce their economic growth rate, the results of this study show that when this income increase is achieved through the depreciation of dollar, the economic growth of the Iranian economy will not decrease.   

Keywords

References

- ابراهیمی، سجاد (1390)، "اثر شوک‌های قیمت نفت و نوسانات نرخ ارز و نا اطمینانی حاصل از آن‌ها بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب نفتی"، فصلنامه پژوهش نامه بازرگانی، 59، 83-105 .
- توکلی، اکبر و محسن سیاح (1389)، "تاثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی کشور"، فصل نامه پول و اقتصاد، 4.
- مجاورحسینی، فرشید (1382)، "منابع طبیعی و رشد اقتصادی: رابطه معکوس"، ماهنامه اقتصاد ایران، شماره 72.
- عصاری آرانی، عباس و احمد جعفری صمیمی و میثم رسولی میر، (1389)، "تاثیر تکانه‌های قیمت نفت بر حساب جاری کشورهای عضو اوپک"، فصل نامه اقتصاد مقداری، 3، 7، 1 تا 21.
- مزینی، امیر حسین و کاظم یاوری، (1383)،" اثر تغییرات نرخ ارز بر بخش تجاری کشور"، فصل نامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی.
- مهرآرا، محسن و کامران نیکی اسکویی، (1388)، "تکانه‌های نفتی و اثرات پویایی آن بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی"، فصل نامه پژوهش نامه بازرگانی،40، 1 تا 32.
- نعمت الهی، فاطمه و شراره مجدزاده طباطبایی، (1388)، "تاثیر نوسانات قیمت نفت اوپک بر تراز تجاری"، فصل نامه مدل سازی اقتصادی، 4، 151 تا 169.
- نماگرهای بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، (1391) .
- نوفرستی، محمد و عباس عرب مازار (1375). شناخت ساختار الگوی اقتصادسنجی کلان ایران، معاونت امور اقتصادی، وزارت امور اقتصادی و دارایی.
- نوفرستی، محمد و عباس عرب‌مازار. (1373)، " یک الگوی اقتصادسنجی کلان برای اقتصاد ایران"، مجله پژوهش‌ها و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، وزارت امور اقتصادی و دارایی، سال دوم شماره 1.
- نوفرستی، محمد، (1378)، ریشه واحد و همجمعی دراقتصادسنجی، انتشارات رسا، چاپ اول.
- هوشمند، محمود و رضا فهیمی دوآب، (1389)، "تخمین رابطه بلند مدت قیمت حقیقی نفت خام و ارزش واقعی دلار آمریکا"، مجله دانش و توسعه، 30.
- Auty, R. (1993). Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis. London. Routledge.
- Baldwin, R. E. (1966). Economic Development and Export Growth: A Study ofNorthern Rhodesia. 1920-1960. Berkeley and Los Angeles. CA: University of California Press.
- Bodin, J. (1962). The Six Books of a Commonwealth [Les six livres de la republique]. trans. Robert Knolles. ed. K. D. McRae. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
- Burbidge, J. and Harrison, A., "Testing for the Effects of oil - price Rise using vector Autoregressions", International Economic Review.
- Filip Novotný, (2012),THE LINK BETWEEN THE BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICEAND THE US DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE, PRAGUE ECONOMIC PAPERS, 2.
- Galbraith, Kenneth , J. (1958) , The Afflluent Society , Houghtom Miffim , USA.
- Hamilton, James (1996),"This Is What Happened to the Oil Price Macro Economy Relationship", Journal of Money Economics.
- Hamilton, James D. (1996), "Oil and the Macroeconomic Since Word War II", Journal of police Economy.
- Hamilton, James. D. (2002), "What is an oil shock?" NBER Working Paper, 7755, June.
- Hirschman, A. O. (1958). The Strategy of Economic Development. New Haven CT: Yale University Press.
- Jimens - Rodriguez, Rebecca. (2002), "Oil Price Shock: A Nonlinear Approach", Working Paper, University of Allocate, Spain, March. 
- Joscha Beckmann and Robert Czudaj, (2013),Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates,  ELSEVIER.
- Joshi, Vijay, (1970), Saving and Foreign Exchange Constraints,London Weidenfeld and in Nicholson.
- Kuper, Gerald H.(2002), "Measuring Oil Price Volatility", Working Paper University of Groningen, Department of Economics, June.
- Lewis, A. (1955). The Theory of Economic Growth. London.
- Mork, K.A., "Oil and the Macroeconomy when prices Goup and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Result", Journal of political Economy.
- Murat ustaoglu and Seyuhn Digan and Selim Demezca, (2012), Relationship between Real Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate: the case of Turkey, ELSEVIER.
- Murphy, K. M, A. Shleifer & R.W. Vishny. (1989). Industrialization and the Big Push. Journal of Political Economy, 97: 1003-26.
- Murphy, Kevim , Amdrie Shleifer and Robert .W. Vishny. (1989). Industrialization and the Big Push. Journal of Political Economy, 97.
- Prebisch,Raul,(1950), The Economic Development of Latin America and The Primcipal Problems, New York.
- Riadh Aloui, Mohamed Safouane Ben Aïssa, Duc Khuong Nguyen,(2013),Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates: A copula-GARCH approach,  ELSEVIER.
- Rosemestim-Rodam, P.W., (1961), Notes an The Theoryof The Big Push , in Ellis, Editor, Economoic Development for Latim America.
- Rosenstein-rodan and P.W., (1943), Problems of Imdnstrialigation of Easterm and South – Easterm Europe, The Economic Journal , vol 53.
- Rostow, W. (1960 .)The Stages of Economic Growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Sachs, J. & A. Warner. (1999). Natural Resource Intensity and Economic Growth. In Mayer Jorg Chambers Brain, and Ayisha Farooq,Eds., Development Policies in Natural Resource Economics, Ch.2.Cheltenham, UK and Northampton Massachusetts: Edward Elgar.
- Seers, D. (1964). The Mechanism of an Open Petroleum Economy. Social and Economic Studies,13, 233-242.
- Singer, Hans, W. (1950), US Foreign Imvestment in Underdeveloped Areas :The Distributiam of Gaims between Imvesting and Borrowing countris, American Economic Review, paper and proccedings, 40 May.
- Ziwei Shao,(2008), Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance: An Empirical Study of the Case of Japan, SINGAPORE MANAGEMENT UNIVERSITY.
Journal of Economics and Modelling
Volume 5, 19-20
March 2015
Pages 111-142

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics