The role of population age structure in the households’ demand for real estate investment

Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University

2 M. A. in Economics, Shahid Beheshti University


Changes in the population age structure of the Iranian society, due to the baby boom of the 1360’s had serious consequences and raised several questions. One is how the household demand for investment in real states is affected by such a drastic change in the population age distribution. In finding a suitable answer to this question, this paper specifies an investment demand function for real state that one of its explanatory variables is changes in population age structure. The specified function is estimated using ARDL approach, in line with the co-integration methodology, by the aid of time series data for the period 1345-1385. The obtained results suggest that an increase in the portion of middle age population leads to an increase in demand for real estate investment. In 15 to 20 years from now (1407-1412), when who were born in the  first half of the 1360’s reach the age of 40-44, the demand for investing in real state will increase, thereafter will decrease gradually.  


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