1
Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University
2
M. A. in Economics, Shahid Beheshti University
Abstract
Changes in the population age structure of the Iranian society, due to the baby boom of the 1360’s had serious consequences and raised several questions. One is how the household demand for investment in real states is affected by such a drastic change in the population age distribution. In finding a suitable answer to this question, this paper specifies an investment demand function for real state that one of its explanatory variables is changes in population age structure. The specified function is estimated using ARDL approach, in line with the co-integration methodology, by the aid of time series data for the period 1345-1385. The obtained results suggest that an increase in the portion of middle age population leads to an increase in demand for real estate investment. In 15 to 20 years from now (1407-1412), when who were born in the first half of the 1360’s reach the age of 40-44, the demand for investing in real state will increase, thereafter will decrease gradually.
بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، فراداده‌های حساب‌های ملی در ایران، بازیابی از http://cbi.ir.
بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، اطلاعات سری‌های زمانی اقتصادی، بازیابی ازhttp://tsd.cbi.ir
قلی زاده، علی اکبر;(1378)"تقاضای دارایی مسکن، مبانی نظری و کاربردهای سیاستی"، مجله برنامه بودجه، شماره 42،ص 57-80.
مرکز آمار ایران، نتایج تفصیلی سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن کل کشور. سالهای مختلف.
نوفرستی، محمد;(1391)،ریشه واحد و همجمعی در اقتصادسنجی، موسسه خدمات فرهنگی رسا، تهران، چاپ چهارم.
Eguia,begnoa&Echevarriacriz A(2004)population age structure and investment housing in spain. Journal of Population Economics.
Estrada Ángel& José Luis Fernández& Esther Moral & Ana V. Regil, 2004. "A quarterly macroeconometric model of the Spanish Economy," Banco de Espana Working Papers 0413, Banco de España.
Fair, R. C. and Dominguez, K.: 1991, Effects of the changing U.S. age distribution on macro-economic equations, American Economic Review 81, 1276-1294.
Jorgenson Dale W (1963) ‘CAPITAL THEORY AND INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR’ American Economic Review , 53 , no2(may) :247-252.
HADJ DJELLOUL Mohammed (2012)"The determinants of housing tenure choice in France: Insights on the effect of the ethnic origin difference" journal of peer-reviewed research and commentaryin the population sciences published.
Gabriel S. Lee**, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Bernhard Felderer,and Christian Helmenstein (2003) “Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: is there Connection*” Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vol. 1, pp. 35-50
Levin, Eric, Alberto Montagnoli and Robert E. Wright (2009) “Demographic Change and the Housing Market: Evidence from a Comparison of Scotland and England,” Urban Studies, 46 (1): 27-43.
Lindenthal, Thies, and Piet Eichholtz.(2011) "Prolonged Crisis: Housing in Germany and Berlin." Global HousingMarkets: Crises, Policies, and Institutions. Eds. Ashok Bardhan, Robert H. Edelstein, and Cynthia A. Kroll. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
LindenthalThies and PietEichholtz( 2010). “Demographic Change, Human Capital and the Demand for Housing”. Europe Real Estate Yearbook. The Hague: Europe Real Estate Publishers.
Lindh, Thomas and Bo Malmberg (2008) “Demography and housing demand - what can we learn from residential construction, Journal of Population Economics, 21 (3): 521-539.
Maria Da PiedadeMorais;Bruno De Oliveira Cruz(2007) Housing Demand, Tenure Choice, and Housing Policy in Brazil. Institute of Applied Economic Research-IPEA
Nadiri M.I & Robert Eisner (1968) ‘Investment behavior and Neo-classical teory’ the Reweiw of Economics and statistic , volume 50 , Issu 3, 369-382
Neukirchen, MAX & Lang, Helen (2005) Characteristics and Macroeconomic Drivers of House Price Changes in Austrailia; Journal of Population Economics.
RobidouxBenoît and Bing-Sun Wong(2005),The Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model In FinanceModelling Papers1998-2005. Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division,Department of Finance, Canada.
Noferesti, M., & Sadeghi Goghari, S. (2014). The role of population age structure in the households’ demand for real estate investment. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 4(16), 69-87.
MLA
Mohammad Noferesti; Smira Sadeghi Goghari. "The role of population age structure in the households’ demand for real estate investment", Journal of Economics and Modelling, 4, 16, 2014, 69-87.
HARVARD
Noferesti, M., Sadeghi Goghari, S. (2014). 'The role of population age structure in the households’ demand for real estate investment', Journal of Economics and Modelling, 4(16), pp. 69-87.
VANCOUVER
Noferesti, M., Sadeghi Goghari, S. The role of population age structure in the households’ demand for real estate investment. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 2014; 4(16): 69-87.
)