Spillover Effects of Urban Public Transport Vehicles in Tehran Megacity: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach

Document Type : Original Article


1 Ph.D Candidate in Urban and Regional Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

3 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran


Urban public transport demand response to various internal and external shocks is one of the most important issues in urban public transport policymaking. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spillover effects of demand for urban public transportation in Tehran megacity using global vector autoregressive approach during 2008-2019. The results of the impulse response function indicates that the occurrence of a positive shock in metro demand increases the demand for BRT and decreases the demand for bus, and a positive shock in bus demand declines the demand for metro as well as BRT, and a positive shock in BRT demand leads to the increase of metro demand and reduction of demand for common bus. Besides, a positive shock in metro fares decreases the demand for both BRT and common bus while a positive shock in bus fares increases the demand for metro and BRT. When a positive shock occurs in BRT fares the demand for metro increases while the demand for bus and BRT increases gradually. Also, a positive shock in gasoline price leads to the increase of demand for all three types of public transport modes.


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