اثر کیفیت نهادی بر چرخه‌ تجاری و پویایی‌های متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری بخش اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

2 استاد بخش اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

3 دانشیار بخش اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

کیفیت نهادی در حال حاضر یکی از متغیرهای مهم در تجزیه و تحلیل عملکرد اقتصادی کشورها محسوب می شود، به نحوی که بر اساس مطالعات جدید کیفیت نهادی ماهیت چرخه‌های تجاری و رفتار پویای متغیرهای کلیدی اقتصاد کلان را متاثر می‌سازد. هدف این مطالعه بررسی فرایند اثرگذاری کیفیت نهادی بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان و واکنش این متغیرها به تغییرات کیفیت نهادی برای ایران با استفاده از تکنولوژی رانت‌جویی در قالب یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی کینزی جدید است. پس از ساخت و حل الگو، با استفاده از روش مقداردهی اثر تغییرات نهادی بر متغیرهای کلان طی دوره زمانی 1396-1363 بررسی شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که بهبود کیفیت نهادی از طریق افزایش فعالیت‌های مولد، کاهش هزینه مبادله تولید، ارتقای بهره‌وری، افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری و اثرگذاری سیاست‌گذاری‌های پولی و مالی، مصرف خصوصی، مخارج دولت و تولید غیر‌نفتی در ایران را افزایش خواهد داد، لذا پیشنهاد می‌شود که سیاستگذاران با اقدامات مناسب نظیر افزایش ثبات مالی دولت، کنترل فساد و رانت‌جویی، ارتقای حاکمیت نظم و قانون، ارتقای شفافیت و پاسخگویی در برابر مردم و بهبود کیفیت دیوانسالاری، در جهت بهبود کیفیت نهادی اقدام کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Institutional Quality on Business Cycle and the Dynamics of Macroeconomic Variables in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Dehghanmanshadi 1
  • Karim Eslamloueyan 2
  • Ebrahim Hadian 3
  • Zahra Dehghan Shabani 3
1 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Institutional quality is one of the key determinants of the economic performance of countries. The literature lacks a formal model to address the role of institutional quality changes in the macroeconomic dynamics of a developing economy. Using a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework and incorporating rent-seeking technology, this study investigates the effect of institutional quality shocks on the business cycle and the dynamic behavior of key macroeconomic variables in Iran. Our modeling allows us to show how institutional quality affects behavior of households, firms, government, and the central bank. The model is solved and calibrated for the period 1984-2017. The results indicate that better institutional quality increases private consumption, government spending, and non-oil production through increasing productive activities, decreasing transaction costs, improving productivity, enhancing investment, and promoting more effective monetary and fiscal policies. More specifically, policymakers should take certain measures to improve the quality of institutions in Iran through boosting government stability, fighting corruption, controlling rent-seeking activities, improving law and order, increasing democratic accountability, and bureaucracy quality. These findings might have important policy implications for policymakers in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Institutional Quality
  • Rent Seeking
  • Business Cycles
  • Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
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