ارزیابی تغییرات تولید ناشی از افزایش قیمت بنزین در بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران: مقایسه الگوی استاندارد و الگوی غیرخطی عرضه‌ محور گش

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد انرژی، کشاورزی و محیط زیست دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد نظری دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

10.29252/jem.2023.230976.1830

چکیده

استفاده از توابع تولید خطی در ساختار الگوهای داده-ستانده یکی از محدودیت‌های اساسی این الگوها به شمار می‌رود. پژوهش حاضر ضمن رفع نواقص الگوی استاندارد عرضه‌ محور گش و معرفی یک الگوی غیرخطی، آثار ناشی از افزایش قیمت بنزین را در دو الگوی استاندارد خطی و الگوی غیرخطی عرضه‌ محور گش با یکدیگر مقایسه می‌کند. برای این منظور از داده‌های جدول داده-ستانده سال 1395 بانک مرکزی ج.ا.ایران جهت استخراج الگوی غیرخطی استفاده شده است. همچنین برای محاسبه تغییرات ارزش‌افزوده ناشی از افزایش قیمت بنزین، از ارقام یارانه بنزین در ترازنامه هیدروکربوری سال 1395 بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد هزینه تولید بنزین و حمل و نقل به ترتیب با مقادیر 72/56 و 25/24 هزار میلیارد ریال در الگوی استاندارد و 34/52 و 90/19 هزار میلیارد ریال در الگوی غیرخطی بیشترین میزان افزایش را داشته‌اند. در هر دو الگو، بر اثر افزایش قیمت بنزین، هزینه تولید تمامی بخش‌های اقتصادی افزایش می‌یابد، اما مقایسه مقادیر بدست آمده نشان می‌دهد که میزان افزایش در هزینه تولید در  الگوی استاندارد بیشتر از الگوی غیرخطی عرضه‌ محور گش است. دلیل این موضوع، امکان جانشینی بین نهاده‌های تولید واسطه در الگوی غیرخطی عرضه‌ محور گش است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Production Variations due to Gasoline Price in Iranian Economic Sectors: Comparison of the Standard and the Nonlinear Ghosh Supply-Driven Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Faridzad 1
  • Esfandiar Jahangard 2
  • Soraya Asadi 3
1 Associate Professor of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economic, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
3 MA in Economic, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The use of linear production functions in the structure of input-output model is one of the basic limitations of these models. The study, while eliminating the shortcomings of the standard supply-driven Gosh model by replacing the linear production function with the Cobb–Douglas production function in the supply-driven input-output model and introducing a nonlinear model, it compares the effects of rising gasoline prices on two standard linear models and a nonlinear supply-driven models. For this purpose, the input-output table of 2,016 of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been employed to extract the non-linear supply-driven input-output model. Also, to calculate the value-added changes due to the increase in gasoline prices, gasoline subsidy figures in the hydrocarbon balance sheet in 2016 have been used. The results of this study show that in both models, due to the increase in gasoline prices, the production cost of all sectors increases, but the rate of increase in production costs in the standard supply-driven model is more than non-linear supply-driven model. The reason for this result is the possibility of substitution between inputs in the non-linear supply-driven model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Supply-driven Model
  • Gasoline Price
  • Cobb–Douglas Production Function
  • Nonlinear Input-output Models

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