ارزیابی اثر افزایش سطح قیمت‌ها بر تغییرات رفاهی خانوارهای شهری: رویکرد تغییرات جبرانی و تابع ترجیحات

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 کارشناس‌ارشد علوم اقتصادی گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

چکیده

در اقتصاد ایران دولت هر ساله میلیاردها ریال صرف یارانه کالا‌های اساسی به منظور حفظ یا افزایش رفاه مصرف‌کنندگان می‌نماید. در مقابل افزایش نرخ تورم، ر فاه را کاهش می‌دهد. در این صورت دولت  نیازمند معیاری برای سنجش شدت تأثیرپذیری مصرف‌کنندگان از تورم است. هدف این مقاله استخراج و محاسبه شاخص رفاهی تغییرات جبرانی مبتنی بر تابع مخارج AIDS و ارزیابی اثر رفاهی منفی ناشی از افزایش نرخ تورم بر رفاه مصرف‌کنندگان است. از این‌رو در این مقاله با برآورد سیستم معادلات تقاضای  AIDSبه روش رگرسیون‌های به ظاهر غیرمرتبط تکراری در دوره 1392-1354، هزینه رفاهی ناشی از افزایش قیمت‌ها در اقتصاد ایران محاسبه شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که بر اساس معیار تغییرات جبرانی در طی دوره 1392- 1354، برای جبران آثار رفاهی تورم یک خانوار با بعد 5/4 نفر، ‌باید سالیانه بطور متوسط 13 درصد مخارج کل به خانوارها پرداخت می‌گردید تا در سطح مطلوبیت اولیه باقی می‌ماندند. محاسبه ضریب همبستگی معیار تغییرات جبرانی با نرخ تورم سالیانه گروه‌های مختلف کالایی نشان می‌دهد که گروه‌های کالایی مسکن، خوراک و بهداشت و درمان به ترتیب با ضرایب همبستگی 96، 61 و67 درصد، بیشترین اثر رفاهی منفی را بر مصرف‌کنندگان شهری داشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Effect of Increasing in Level of Prices on Urban Welfare: Compensatory Variation Approach and Preference Function

نویسندگان [English]

  • Gholamreza Zamanian 1
  • Elham Shivai 2
1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Bluchestan
2 MA in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Bluchestan
چکیده [English]

The Iranian government spends billions of Rials for basic goods each year to maintain or Increase consumer's welfare level. Meanwhile the rise of inflation reduces their welfare levels. If the government attempts to compensate these negative effects a measure for assessing the severity of consumers' effectiveness is necessery. The purpose of this paper is to measure the negative welfare effects resulting from rise of inflation rate on the consumers' welfare through extracting and calculating compensating variation (CV) based on the AIDS expenditure function. The findings given the CV criterion reflects that in order to compensate the welfare effects (over the 1975-2013 period) the government should have paid on average 13 percentage of total expenditure annually to every urban household with size 4.5 person. Measuring the CV correlation coefficient with the annual inflation rate of different commodity groups indicate that the commodity groups of housing, Food and Health Care have the highest negative welfare effect with 96, 61 and 67 percent on the urban consumers respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Welfare Change
  • Compensating Variation (CV)
  • Expenditure Function
  • PIGLOG Preference Function
  • Urban Hosehold
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