بررسی اثرات کاهش درآمدهای نفتی بر اشتغال در ایران: تحلیل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد دانشکده معارف اسلامی و اقتصاد دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)،

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

به دلیل وابستگی بودجه دولت به درآمدهای نفتی در ایران، انتظار می‌رود کاهش قیمت نفت، کلیه بازارها به ویژه بازار کار را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد. در این مقاله با طراحی یک مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر چندبخشی که در بردارنده دو نوع نیروی کار ماهر و ساده است، به بررسی اثر کاهش درآمدهای نفتی بر اشتغال نیروی کار ساده و ماهر در ایران پرداخته شده است. نتایج مدل بر پایه ماتریس داده‌های خرد (1390) طراحی شده توسط مولفین استخراج شده‌اند. نتایج مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که با کاهش درآمدهای نفتی، سطح فعالیت در همه بخشهای تولیدی کاهش یافته است. همچنین نتایج نشان‌دهنده این است که کاهش درآمدهای نفتی اشتغال نیروی کار ساده را در همه بخشهای تولیدی کاهش می‌دهد. از طرف دیگر، اشتغال نیروی کار ماهر نیز تنها در بخش خدمات کاهش یافته و در سایر بخش‌ها افزایش می‌یابد. نتایج بیان‌گر جانشینی نیروی کار ماهر به جای نیروی کار ساده در همه بخشها پس از کاهش درآمدهای نفتی است.  

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Analysis of the Impacts of Oil Revenues Redaction on Employment in Iran: A CGE Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Davood Manzoor 1
  • Marzieh Bahaloo Horeh 2
1 Department of Economics, The Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics Imam Sadiq University
2 PhD Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

Since Iranian government’s budget is depends to oil revenues, it is expected that oil price fall affect all markets especially labor market in Iran. In this paper, we analyze the effects of oil revenue fall on skilled and unskilled labor employment, using a multi sector computable general equilibrium model. The results are investigated based on 2011 Micro Consistent Matrix. Based on the findings of this paper, oil revenue decrease affect activity level and employment of labor in sectors differently, such that the activity level of all sectors and the unskilled labor employment in all sectors will decrease. The skilled labor employment, on the other hand, will fall in “services” sector, while it will increase in all other sectors. Moreover, the results reveal a substitution of skilled labor to unskilled labor in all sectors after falling oil revenue.    

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • oil revenues
  • Unskilled Labor
  • Skilled Labor
  • Computable General Equilibrium Model
  • Micro Consistent Matrix
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