عنوان مقاله [English]
Selection of the currency system through various economic variables plays a significant role in the future of every society. In addition, many factors influence this choice of a country's currency. Therefore, in this paper we seek to identify and evaluate the impact of these factors on the choice of currency regime in Iran and member of OPEC.
In order to achieve experimental results, data from 1965 to 2012 related to Iran and the OPEC member countries are used and the equations are estimated by two different methods which are probit model and probit random panel model.The results indicate that the most important factor in increasing the probability of choosing a fixed currency system of these countries, is foreign reserves variable. In fact, this finding implies that whenever these countries have adequate reserves to meet its budgetary resources, exchange rate were fixed (Positive correlation between the foreign currency reserves and fixed exchange rate regime). On the other hand, whenever they’ve been faced with a shortage of foreign currency reserves, their exchange rate has been changed (Negative correlation between the foreign currency reserves and fixed exchange rate regime).
1- مصطفیپور، منوچهر، عمادالدین سخایی.(1390). نگاهی به سیاستهای ارزی کشور و چارچوب مناسب تعیین نرخ ارز. ماهنامه بررسی مسائل و سیاستهای اقتصادی.
2- برخورداری، سجاد،(1391). سه نظریه برای نظام ارزی کشورهای نفتی و رژیمهای ارزی، فصلنامه تازههای اقتصاد، شماره 136.
3- Aizenman, Joshua and Robert Flood, (1992).A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas Revisited" IMF working paper 92.
4- Blundell-Wignall, A. and R.G. Gregory (1990). ‘Exchange Rate Policy in Advanced Commodity-Exporting countries: The Challenge for Smaller Industrial Countries, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., pp. 224-271.
5- Domac, Ilker & Peters, Kyle & Yuzefovich, Yevgeny, (2001). "Does the exchange rate regime affect macroeconomic performance: evidence from transition economics," Policy Research Working Paper Series، the World Bank.
6- Edwards, S. and M. A. Savastano.(1999) “Exchange Rate in Emerging Economies: What do we Know? What do we Need to Know”, Working Paper 7228, NBER.
7- International Monetary Fund. (2008).Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restriction.
8- Kenen, P. B. (1969). The theory of optimum currency areas: An eclectic view, Monetary Problems of the International Economy. The University of Chicago Press.
9- Kydland, F. and E. Prescott. (1977).Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plan. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, pp. 473-490.
10- Rogoff, Ken., Assim Husain, Ashok Mody, Robin Brooks, and N. Oomes.(2004). Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes, IMF Occasional Paper 229 (Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund).
11- Sfia.D, Mohamed (2011). The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in the MENA Countries: A Probit Analysis, International Economics and Economic Policy,Vol 8, PP. 275-305.
12- Simwaka, Kisu. (2010).Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?, Perspectives on African Currencies, School of Economics & Finance, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
13- Von Hagen, J and Zhou, J. (2002).De facto and Official Exchange Rate Regimes in Transition Economies. CEIS Working Paper WP B-13.
14- Hutchison, M. and C.E. Walsh.( 1992). Empirical evidence in the insulation properties of fixed and flexible exchange rates: The Japanese experience. Journal of International Economics, 32, pp. 241-263.