بحران مالی و انفکاک بازارها

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

وقوع بحران‏های مالی متعدد طی سه دهة گذشته، به‌ویژه بحران مالی سال 2007، سبب بازنگری در ادبیات اقتصادی آزادسازی و مقررات‏زدایی بازارهای مالی شده است. در این مقاله، با مرور تئوری تفکیک‏پذیری کلاسیکی و انتقادهای مطرح شده و همچنین بررسی اجمالی برقراری آن در شرایط کنونی اقتصاد سرمایه‏داری‏، مفهوم نوعی از انفکاک بین بازارهای مالی و بخش واقعی اقتصاد معرفی شده است که وجود و گسترش آن منجر به بروز بحران‏های مالی می‏شود. این انفکاک که به واگرا شدن روند ارزش‏های اسمی از ارزش‏های واقعی منتهی می‏شود، هنگامی رخ می‏دهد که عملکرد بازارهای مالی مبتنی بر بخش واقعی اقتصاد نباشد. با گسترش انفکاک و بروز جدایی ارزش‏های اسمی دارایی‏های مالی از درآمدزایی آنها در بخش واقعی، فرصت‏های کسب‏ سود آسان و کوتاه‏مدتی ایجاد می‏شود که باعث تشدید انگیزه‏های سفته‏بازی در بازارهای مالی است. در این حالت، حجم عمدة‏ پول به‌جای گردش در چرخة فعالیت‏های بخش واقعی اقتصاد، به بازارهای مالی هدایت و سبب تشکیل حباب قیمتی و متورم شدن آن می‏شود که نتیجه، سقوط قیمت دارایی و لذا بروز بحران مالی است. برای شناسایی این انفکاک، شاخص نسبت قیمت سهام به بازدهی آن ارائه شده است. نتایج نشان می‏دهد که در دوران منتهی به بروز بحران مالی شاخص انفکاک در حال افزایش بوده است. با توجه به عوامل ایجاد و گسترش انفکاک در بازارهای اقتصاد، ضروری است که قواعد و سازوکار نظام مالی به ‏گونه‏ای پایه‏گذاری شود تا با کاهش میزان انفکاک، از بروز بحران‏های مالی کاسته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Financial Crisis and Separation of Markets

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parviz Davoodi 1
  • Mehdi Hadian 2
1 Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti university
2 Ph.D. student
چکیده [English]

Several financial crises over the past three decades, especially the financial crisis of 2007, have caused revision in the literature of liberalization and deregulation of financial markets. In the Present Study, by surveying the theory of classical dichotomy and its critiques, the notion of separation between financial and real markets has been introduced. The existence and expansion of this separation will lead to financial crises.This separation which results in divergence between nominal and real values, occurs when the performance of financial market is not based on that of the real sector. The expansion of this separation and detachment of nominal values of financial assets from their return stream in the real sector generate shortly, motivate easily profitable opportunities which intensify speculative motives in financial markets. In this situation, a large amount of money will be transfered from the real sector of economy to the financial markets, and as a result, asset price bubbles are created. With inflating price bubbles, the financial crises are more likely to happen due to the burst of bubbles and the fall of asset prices.
In order to identify this separation, the price-earning ratio index has been used. The results indicate that the separation index is increasing during the preceding periods of financial crises. Considering the factors which cause and expand the separation between financial and real sectors of economy, it is essential to reestablish regulations and mechanisms of financial markets in a way that reduces this separation and hence reduces financial crises.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial Markets
  • Speculation
  • Price Bubble
  • Separation
  • financial crisis
Andolfatto, David (2006), Macroeconomic Theory Policy, Simon Fraser University. 2nd Edition.

Becker, Gary S. & William J. Baumol (1952), “The Classical Monietary Theory: The Outcome of the Discussion”, Economica, Vol. 19, pp. 355-76.

Becker, R., J Lee & B. Gup (2010), “An Empirical Analysis of Mean Reversion of P/E Ratios”, Journal of Economics and Finance, Online First™, 24 July 2010.

Bernanke, Ben (May 2008), Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures, Federal Reserve (http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/ speech/ Bernanke20080505a.htm).

Bivens, Josh and Heidi Shierholz (March 2010), “For Job Seekers, No Recovery in Sight—Why Prospects for Job Growth and Unemployment Remain Dim”, Economic Policy Institute, EPI Briefing Paper 259, Available at (http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/bp259)

Boyanovsky, Mauro (1993), “Böhm-Bawerk, Irving Fisher and the Term “Veil of Money”- a Note”, History of Political Economy 25, pp. 725-738.

Campbell, JY & RJ Shiller (2001), Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update. NBER, Working Paper No. 8221.

Cassidy, John (2008), The Minsky Moment, The New Yorker,4 Feb 2008 (http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/02/04/080204taco_talk_cassidy).

Economist (18 Oct 2007), Credit Crunch, (http://www.economist.com/ specialreports/ displaystory.cfm?story_id=9972489),

Friedman, Milton (1960), A Program for Monetary Stability, New York, Fordham University Press.

Gros, Daniel & Cinzia Alcidi (2010), “The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Real Economy”, Intereconomics Journal, Volume 45, Number 1, 4-20.

Hansen, Lars Peter & Thomas J. Sargent (1982), "Formulating and Estimating Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models", Staff Report 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

Harvard Report (2008), State of the Nation's Housing (http://www.jchs. harvard.edu/ publications/ markets/ son2008/son2008.pdf).

Hickman, W. Braddock (1950), "The Determinacy of Absolute Prices in Classical Economic Theory", Econometrica, Vol. 18, pp. 9-20.

Justin, Lahart (2007), "Egg Cracks Differ In Housing, Finance Shells", Wall Street Journal, (2007-12-24).

Keynes, John Maynard (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Col Choat colc@gutenberg.net.au, February 2003.

Krugman, Paul (2008), The Return of Depression Economics, Norton & Company Inc.

Minsky, P. Hyman (1992), The Financial Instability Hypothesis, The Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper No. 74. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=161024 or doi:10.2139/ssrn.161024.

Reinhart, Carmen & Kenneth Rogoff (2009). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.

Sethi, Rajiv (2002), Reviewed Work: The Economic Legacy of Hyman Minsky, Volume 1, Financial Keynesianism and Market Instability by Riccardo Bellofiore; Piero Ferri, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 40, No. 2 (Jun., 2002), pp. 520-522.

Shiller, Robert (2010) Webpage—source of P/E Ratio Data: (http://www.econ.yale.edu/shiller/data.htm).

Shiyin, Chen & Liza Lin (May 2009), Global Crisis ‘Vastly Worse’ Than 1930sBloomberg, Available at (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYijnS7fUBRc).

Tucker, Paul M. W. (2008), Monetary Policy and the Financial System, Remarks at the Institutional Money Market Funds Association, London, April 2, 2008.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics , (http://www.bls.gov/bls/unemployment.htm)

United Nations (Oct 2008), Global Food, Energy, Financial Crises Highlight Urgent Need to Strengthen, (http://www.un.org/News/Press/ docs/2008/ dsgsm421.doc.htm).

Wang, Pengfei & Yi Wen (2009), Speculative Bubbles and Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis, Research Division, Working Paper 2009-029B.