بررسی ارتباط بین شهرنشینی و مصرف انرژی در استان‌‌‌های ایران با بکارگیری الگوی STIRPAT تعمیم‌‌‌یافته

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و تربیتی دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و تربیتی دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه

چکیده

شهرنشینی یک انتقال ساختاری از نواحی روستایی به مناطق شهری است که از طریق ساز و کار‌‌‌های مختلفی بر روی مصرف انرژی تأثیر می‌‌‌گذارد. تبیین رابطه‌‌‌ی بین مصرف انرژی و شهرنشینی و مشخص کردن میزان و نحوه تأثیرگذاری آن می‌تواند در سیاست‌‌‌گذاری‌‌‌های بخش انرژی و سیاست‌‌‌گذاری‌‌‌های جمعیتی مفید واقع شود. به همین منظور در این مطالعه تلاش شده است، با بکارگیری الگوی STIRPAT تعمیم‌‌‌یافته علاوه بر بررسی نقش ساز و کار‌‌‌های مختلف اثرگذار بر مصرف انرژی، به برآورد این اثرات در کوتاه‌‌‌ و بلندمدت از طریق روش خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌‌‌های توزیعی داده‌‌‌های ترکیبی  مربوط به داده‌‌‌های 30 استان کشور طی دوره زمانی 1394-1383 پرداخته و با استفاده از روش تصحیح خطای برداری رابطه علیت بین مصرف انرژی و سایر متغیرهای توضیحی بررسی می‌‌‌گردد. نتایج برآوردها حاکی از وجود یک رابطه دو طرفه، مثبت و معناداری بین مصرف انرژی و شهرنشینی در کوتاه‌‌‌ و بلندمدت است. همچنین در این مطالعه فرضیه کوزنتس در مورد رابطه U معکوس بین شهرنشینی و مصرف انرژی رد نمی‌شود و می‌توان گفت رابطه بین این دو متغیر یک رابطه مثبت ولی کاهنده است. رابطه سایر متغیرها از جمله؛ درآمد سرانه، شاخص تکنولوژی و تعداد خودروها نیز با مصرف انرژی مثبت و معنادار بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Relationship between Urbanization and Energy Consumption in the Provinces of Iran; Applying the Generalized STIRPAT Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Sharif Karimi 1
  • maryam heidarian 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah
2 Ph.D. Student in Public Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Urbanization is a structural transition from rural to urban areas which have been influenced by energy consumption of various channels. Explaining the relationship between energy consumption and urbanization and specifying the amount and how it can influence policies in the energy sector and policies of the population is helpful. This study uses the generalized STIRPAT model to examine the role of various channels which are affect the energy consumption. These effects are estimated at the short and long-run through the Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag with data of 30 provinces during 2004-2015. Moreover, the vector error correction model of energy consumption and other explanatory variables are investigated. Our results show that there is a two-way relationship of positive and significant between energy consumption and urbanization in the short and long-run. Also in this study, Kuznets hypothesis regarding in the U inverse relationship between urbanization and energy consumption is not rejected and it can be said the relationship between these two variables is a positive relationship but decreasing. Also, the effect of other variables such as income per capita, technology index and the number of vehicles on energy consumption are positive and significant.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • urbanization rate
  • energy consumption
  • Generalized STIRPAT Model
  • Iran Provinces
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