برآورد کشش‌های قیمتی و درآمدی مؤثر بر تقاضای بنزین و نفت‌گاز در بخش حمل و نقل کشور

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

حدود یک چهارم انرژی کشور سالانه در بخش حمل­و­نقل مصرف می­شود. بنزین و نفت­گاز از مهمترین انرژی­های مصرفی در این بخش هستند. در این مطالعه مهم‌ترین عوامل اثرگذار بر منابع اصلی تامین انرژی بخش حمل و نقل کشور، بنزین و نفت­گاز، در سطح استان‌ها، طی سال‌های 1393- 1385 با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته ارزیابی می­شوند. متغیرهای مورد ارزیابی، درآمد سرانه، قیمت نفت­گاز و بنزین، تغییرات سرانه انباره خودروهای سواری و دیزلی و ناوگان اتوبوسرانی شهری استانی است. نتایج نشان می­دهد که کشش قیمتی کوتاه­مدت بنزین 14/0 و کشش قیمتی کوتاه­مدت نفت­گاز 13/0 است، در حالی­که کشش درآمدی بدست آمده برای بنزین و نفت­گاز در هر دو الگوی اصلی برابر با 3/0 است. افزایش سرانه انباره خودروهای بنزینی بر مصرف سرانه بنزین و نفت­گاز اثر مثبت داشته است، در صورتی­که افزایش سرانه انباره خودروهای دیزلی بر سرانه مصرف بنزین و نفت­گاز، اثر منفی دارد. همچنین نتایج حاکی از آن است که ناوگان اتوبوسرانی شهری تاثیر بسزایی بر سرانه مصرف سوخت نداشته است. بهره­وری پایین تصمیمات اتخاذ شده در حمل­و­نقل عمومی باید در ادامه سیاست­گذاری­های بخش عمومی اصلاح شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation the Price and Income Elasticities of Demand for the Gas and Diesel Fuel in Transportation Sector

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farhad Dejpasand 1
  • Ali reza Khazaei 2
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
2 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

About a quarter of different types of energy consumed annually are in the transportation sector in Iran. Gasoline and diesel are the most important source of energy consumed in this sector. This study uses the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to evaluate the main factors affecting the gasoline and diesel for the transportation sector in different provinces in Iran during 2006- 2014. The evaluated factors are per capita income, the price of gasoline and diesel, per capita changes in gas and diesel cars stocks, and provincial urban bus fleets. The results show that the per capita gasoline and diesel consumed relative to the price changes in the short runare low elastic. The short-run price elasticity of gasoline is 0.14, the short-run price elasticity of diesel is 0.13; while the elasticity of income for gasoline and diesel is about 0.3 in both main models. An increase in per capita stock of gasoline cars has a positive effect on per capita gasoline and diesel consumption, while the per capita increase in diesel cars stock capacity has a negative impact on the per capita consumption of gasoline and diesel. The results also indicate that the urban bus fleet has not had an impact on fuel consumption per head. Based on the results of this study, the goal of a change in fuel consumption should be on people's per capita income, leading to reduced consumption and behavioral change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Gasoline
  • Diesel
  • Transportation
  • Generalized Method of Moment
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