بررسی نقش درآمدهای نفتی در چگونگی اثرگذاری توسعه بخش مالی بر رشد اقتصادی کل و بخش غیرنفتی در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

انتظار می­رود وجود درآمدهای سرشار منابع طبیعی، سرمایه لازم را برای کمک به توسعه و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای متکی بر درآمدهای منابع فراهم آورد. اما عملکرد اقتصادی این کشورها در مقایسه با کشورهای مشابه فاقد منابع طبیعی، در دهه­های اخیر ضعیف تر بوده است. در این مطالعه به بررسی نقش درآمدهای نفتی بر رابطه میان توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی کل کشور و نیز رشد اقتصادی بخش غیرنفتی طی سال‌های 1350-1395، با استفاده از الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری پرداخته می­شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که توسعه مالی بر رشد اقتصادی تاثیر مثبت دارد، ولی تاثیر درآمدهای نفتی و افزایش ناگهانی آن، تاثیر منفی بر این رابطه گذارده و موجب کاهش آن شده است. در بخش دوم، همین الگو برای رشد اقتصادی بخش غیرنفتی برآورد شده است. اثر توسعه بخش مالی بر رشد اقتصادی بخش غیرنفتی بیشتر و تاثیر منفی جهش درآمدهای نفتی بر این بخش کمتر بوده است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Role of Oil Revenues on How Financial Sector Affect the Economic Growth and Non-Oil Sector Growth in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadali Cafaie 1
  • Tahere Rehmani 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
2 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

It is expected that high revenues of natural resources provide the necessary capital to improve economic development and growth in resource-rich countries. But the economic performances of these countries has been weaker in comparison with similar countries without natural resources’ endowment in recent decades. In this study, the role of oil revenues in relationship between financial and total economic growth and the growth of non-oil sector in Iran is investigated during the years 1969-2017 using vector error correction model. The results show financial development has a positive effect on economic growth in both cases, but the effect of oil revenues on economy and its fluctuations has a negative effect on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. In the second part, the same model is estimated for the economic growth of the non-oil sector. The financial sector's development has a greater effect on the economic growth of the non-oil sector and the smaller negative impact of oil revenues on it.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Financial Development
  • non-oil sector
  • vector error correction model
- Al-Malkawi, H.A.N. & Marashdeh, H.A. & Abdullah, N. (2012). Financial development and economic growth in the UAE: Empirical assessment using ARDL approach to co-integration. International Journal Economics Finance, 5 (4), 105–117.

- Ang, J.B. & McKibbin, W.J. (2007). Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: evidence from Malaysia. Journal Development Economics, 84 (1), 215–233.

- Arezki, R. & van der Ploeg, F. (2007). Can the Natural Resource Curse Be Turned into a Blessing? The Role of Trade Policies and Institutions. IMF Working Paper.

- Asadi, Z. & Bahrami, J. & Talebloo, R. (2013). The Effects of Resources Curse Phenomena on Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 10(3), 9-29 (In Persian).

- Beck, T. (2011). Finance and oil: Is there a resource curse in financial development, (Center Discussion Paper No. 2011-017). Netherlands: Tilburg University.

- Beck, T. & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: panel evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 423–442.

- Beck, T. & R. Levine & N. Loayza (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 261–300.

- Berthelemy, J.C. & Varoudakis, A. (1997). Economic growth, convergence clubs, and the role of financial development. Oxford Economics Paper, 48, 300–328.

- Bhattacharyya, S. & Hodler, R. (2010). Natural resources, democracy and corruption. European Economic Review, 54(4), 608–621.

- Bhattacharyya, S. & Hodler, R. (2013). Natural resources, democracy and corruption. European Economic Review, 54(4), 608-621.

- Boyd, J.H. & Prescott, E.C. (1986). Financial intermediary-coalitions. Journal of Economics Theory, 38, 211–232.

- Dadgar, Y. & Nazari, R. (2009). Evaluating financial development indexes in Iran. the 1st international conference in financial sector development in Iran (In Persian).

- De Gregorio, J. & Guidotti, P. (1995). Financial development and economic growth. World Development, 23, 433–448.

- Demirguc-Kunt, A. & Levine, R. (2001). Financial Structures and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Comparison of Banks, Markets, and Development. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

- Diamond, D.W. (1984). Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring. Review of Economic Studies, 51, 393–414.

- Ebrahimi, S. (2014). Structure of Financial Market in Iran: Bank-Based or Market-Based. Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies, 1(4): 25-44 (In Persian).

- Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series. 2nd ed. JohnWiley and Sons Inc., New York.

- Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation. Estimation and Testing, 55(2), 251-276.

- Fosu, O.A.E. & Frimpong J. M. (2006). Bounds Testing Approach Cointegration: An Examination of Foreign Direct Investment Trade and Growth Relationship. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 3 (11), 2079-2085.

- Fotros, M. H. & Najarzadeh, A. & Mahmoodi, H. (2011). The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran: Using factor analysis method. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 18(56), 64-73 (In Persian).

- Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth and the distribution of income. Journal Politic Economics, 98(5), 1076–1107.

- Greenwood, J. and Bruce, S. (1997). Financial markets in development, and the development of financial markets. Journal Economics Dynamic Control, 21(1), 145–181.

- Gylfason, T. (2001). Natural resource. In Education and economic development. European Economic Review, 45, 847-859.

- Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Co-Integration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.

- Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegeration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 59(6), 1551-1580.

- Kavand, A. & Hassanvand, D. (2013). Investigating the effect of financial development on supply of non-oil exports using ARDL model: The case of Iran. Quarterly Journal of Applied Economics Studies, 2(7), 173-195 (In Persian).

- Khan, M.A. & A. Qayyum & A. S. Saeed (2005). Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Pakistan”, Pakistan Development Review, 4(44), 819–837.

- King, R.G. & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal Economics, 108, 717–737.

- Kurronen, S. (2015). Financial sector in resource-dependent economies. Emerging Markets Review, 23, 208–229.

- Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 45 (1), 1–28.

- Levine, R. & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. American Economic Review, 88 (3), 537-558.

- Lucas, R.E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3–42.

- McKinnon, R.I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

- Mehlum, H. & Moene, K. & Torvik, R. (2006). Cursed by resources or institutions? World Economics, 29(8), 1117–1131.

- Mehrara, M. & Zareei, M. (2012). The nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran based on threshold approach. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 2(5), 11-44 (In Persian).

- Mohammadi, T. & Nazeman, H. & Pir-saraei, M. Kh. (2014). A dynamic causality relation between financial development, trade openness and economic growth: A comparison between Iran and Norway. Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, 3, 151-178 (In Persian).

- Moradbeigi, Maryam & Siong Hook Law (2016). Growth volatility and resource curse: Does financial development dampen the oil shocks? Resources Policy, 48, 97-103.

- Nili, M. and M. Rastad (2007). Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: the role of financial development. Quarterly Journal Economics Finance, 46, 726–740.

- Pagano, M. (1993). Financial markets and growth: an overview. European Economic Review, 37, 613–622.

- Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14 (2), 174–189.

- Rezaei, M. & Yavari, K. & Ezzati, M. & Etesami, M. (2015). Analysis of the effect of the abundant natural resources (Oil & Gas) on financial repression and economic growth through the income distribution channels. Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, 4(14), 89-122 (In Persian).

- Robinson, J. (1952). The Rate of Interest and Other Essays. MacMillan, London, Chapter “The generalization of the general theory”.

- Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A.M. (1999). Natural resource abundance and economic growth. NBER Working Paper 5398. Cambridge: Massachusetts.

- Sadeghi, S K, & Ebrahimi S. & Kiani, S. (2012). The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Iran (1973-2009). Economic Development Research, 2(5), 117-138. (In Persian)

- Salmani, B. & Yavari K. (2005). Economic Growth in Countries with Natural Resources, the Case of Oil Exporting Countries. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 3, 1-24 (In Persian).

- Schumpeter, J. A. (1934). The Theory of Economic Development, Translated by Redvers Opie, Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press.

- Shafiei, Afsane & Beromand, Shahzad & Teshkini, Ahmad (2006). Testing the Effect of Financial Policies on Economic Growth. Economic Research, 6, 81-112 (In Persian).

- Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development, New York: Oxford University Press.

- Stern, N. (1989). The economics of development: a survey. Economic Journal, 99 (397), 597–685.

- Tornell, A., & Lane, P. R. (2000). Are windfalls a curse? A non-representative agent model of the current account. Journal of International Economics, 44(1), 83–112.