ثبات مالی و عملکرد اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی کشورهای عضو اوپک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران

2 استادیار اقتصاد، دانشگاه علوم و فنون دریایی خرمشهر

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

با توجه به نقش سیستم مالی به عنوان مکمل بخش واقعی اقتصاد، کارکرد مناسب آن همواره مورد توجه سیاستگزاران اقتصادی بوده و ثبات سیستم مالی یکی از اهداف مهم اقتصادی محسوب می‌شود. نظر به اهمیت رابطه بین ثبات مالی و عملکرد اقتصادی، در این مطالعه به بررسی تجربی آن در کشورهای عضو اوپک طی دوره زمانی 2000 تا 2016 پرداخته می‌شود. الگوسازی این رابطه با تکیه بر الگوهای داده‌های ترکیبی پویا صورت گرفته و برآورد رابطه مذکور در این مطالعه با استفاده از تخمین زن GMM سیستمی و پس از کنترل کردن سطح تعمیق مالی کشورها صورت گرفته است. شاخص‌های مختلف ثبات مالی (شاخص‌های نهادی، شاخص‌های خرد و کلان و شاخص ساخته شده توسط مطالعه) و عملکرد اقتصادی(رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، رشد هزینه مصرفی سرانه خانوار و رشد تشکیل سرمایه ی ناخالص ثابت) به منظور بررسی جنبه‌های مختلف آن در این پژوهش مورد استفاده قرار گرفته­اند. با توجه به نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه ثبات مالی تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر عملکرد اقتصادی کشورهای عضو اوپک طی دوره مورد بررسی داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Financial Stability and Economic Performance: The Case of OPEC Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Majid Aghaei 1
  • Mohammad Amin Kouhbor 2
  • Hossien Ahmadinejad 3
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management Sea, Kkorramshahr University of Marine Science and Technology
3 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran
چکیده [English]

Regarding the role of the financial system as a complement to the real sector of the economy, its proper function has always been the focus of concern for economic policy makers. Given the importance of the relationship between financial stability and economic performance, this study investigates it empirically in OPEC countries by using annual data during 2000-2016. To estimate the relationship, we follow the dynamic panel Model an the mentioned model is estimated using the systemic GMM estimator after controlling the effect of countries financial deepening level. In this research, Alternative indicators of financial stability such as: institutional indicators, micro and macro indicators, and author-introduced indicators, and also, economic performance index such as: GDP per capita growth, household per capita consumption growth, and the growth of gross fixed capital formation are used. The results indicate that financial stability has a significant positive effect on economic performance in OPEC countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial Stability
  • Economic Performance
  • System GMM
  • Financial Depth
- Afshari, Z., & Jafari, H., (2009) . The Relationship between Financial Growth and Economic Growth in South west region of Asia countries, Financial Analysis of Science (Financial Studies), 4, 63-88 (In Persian).
- Aghamohammadi Renani, S., & Barzani, M., V. & Dallali Esfahani, R., & GhassemI, M. R., (2012). Investigating Effect of Valuation of Intermediate Product of Commercial Banks on Economic Instability in Iran Between Years (1982-2007). Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, period 13(2), 107-128 (In Persian).
- Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The effect of financial development on convergence: Theory and evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(1), 173-222.
- Ahmed, A. D. (2013). Effects Of Financial Liberalization On Financial Market Development And Economic Performance Of the SSA Region: An empirical Assessment. Economic Modelling, 30, 261-273.
- Ahmed, A.D. (2016). Integration of financial markets, Financial Development and Growth: Is Africa Different? Journal Of International Financial Markets, Institutions And Money, 42, 43-59.
- Akbaryan, R., &Heidaripour, S. M. (2009), Investigating Effect of Financial Market Development on Economic Growth in Iran Between (1967-2009). Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 3, 43-63 (In Persian).
- Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991), Some Test of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
- Arellano, M. & Bover, O. (1995), Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error Component Models. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-51.
- Bain, K., & Howells, P. (2005). The Economics of Money, Banking and Finance:A European Text. Pearson Education.
- Baltagi. B., (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third ed., John Wiley & Sons Ltd, London.
- Batuo, M., Mlambo, K., & Asongu, S. (2018). Linkages between financial development, financial instability, financial liberalisation and economic growth in Africa. Research in International Business and Finance , 45, 168-179.
- Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(3), 423-442.
- Beck, T., De Jonghe, O., & Schepens, G. (2013). Bank competition and stability: cross-country heterogeneity. Journal of financial Intermediation, 22(2), 218-244.
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998), Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models. Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143.
- Bond, R. (2002), Dynamic Panel Data Model: A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice, the Institute for Fiscal Studies.Portuguese economic journal, 1(2), 141-162.
- Boyd, J. H., & Prescott, E. C. (1986). Financial intermediary-coalitions. Journal of Economic Theory, 38(2), 211-232.
- Cecchetti, S., Kharroubi, E. (2012). Reassessing the impact of finance on growth. BISWorking Paper 381.
- Chang, C. C. (1999). The nonparametric risk-adjusted efficiency measurement: an application to Taiwan's major rural financial intermediaries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81(4), 902-913.
- Cihak, M., Schaeck, K., 2010. How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems? Journal of Financial Stability, 6, 130–144.
- Creel, J., Hubert, P., & Labondance, F. (2015). Financial stability and economic performance. Economic Modelling, 48, 25-40.
- Dabla-Norris, M. E., & Srivisal, M. N. (2013). Revisiting the Link between finance and Macroeconomic Volatility. International Monetary Fund.
- Falihi, F., & Baharaii, R., (2015). Investigating Effect of Financial Depth on Economic Growth in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Financial Economics, 38, 77-98 (in Persian).
- Georgian, Ibrahim and Madani, Shima (2003). Investigating the Role of Economic Stability on Iran's Economic Growth Performance by Simultaneous Equation System. Quarterly Journal of Business Research, 28, 1-24 (In Persian).
- Hollo, D., Kremer,M., Lo Duca,M., 2012. CISS a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system. ECB Working Paper 1426.
- Hosseini, S. M., & Ashrafi, Y., & Sayami Iraqi I., (2011). Investigating the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Iran by Introducing New Variables. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 60, 19-34 (in Persian).
- HU, J. L., Li, Y., & CHIU, Y. H. (2004). Ownership and nonperforming loans: Evidence from Taiwan's banks. The Developing Economies, 42(3), 405-420.
- Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y. (2003), Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
- Jayakumar, M., Pradhan, R. P., Dash, S., Maradana, R. P., & Gaurav, K. (2018). Banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth: Are feedback effects at work?. Journal of Economics and Business, 96, 15-41.
- Kao, C. (1999), Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Co integration in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1- 44.
- King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The quarterly journal of economics, 108(3), 717-737.
- Klein, M. W., & Olivei, G. P. (2008). Capital account liberalization, financial depth, and economic growth. Journal of international money and finance, 27(6), 861-875.
- Krishnankutty, R. (2011). Role of Banks Credit in Economic Growth: a Study with Special Reference to North East India. The Economic Research Guardian, 1(2), 60-71.
- Leitão, N. C. (2012). Bank credit and economic growth. MPRA 1-9. 42664, posted 18.
- Lensink, R. (2000). Does financial development mitigate negative effects of policy uncertainty on economic growth (No. 00/1). CREDIT Research Paper.
- Loayza, N. V., & Ranciere, R. (2006). Financial development, financial fragility, and growth. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38 (4), 1051-1076.
- Marozva, G. (2015). Liquidity and bank performance. The International Business & Economics Research Journal (Online), 14(3), 453-462.
- Mehrara, M., & Rezai, A. A. (2010). The quality of institutions and effects of commercial liberalization in selected developing countries. Quarterly Journal of Business Research. 56, 1-32 (In Persian).
- Odhiambo, N. M. (2008). Financial Depth, Savings And Economic Growth In Kenya: A Dynamic Causal Linkage. Economic Modelling, 25(4), 704-713.
- Pedroni, P. (2004), Panel Co integration, Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 3, 597-625
- Pradhan, R. P., Arvin, M. B., Hall, J. H., & Norman, N. R. (2017). ASEAN economic growth, trade openness and banking-sector depth: The nexus. EconomiA, 18(3), 359-379.
- Shahabadi, A., & Bahari, Z. (2012). The Effect of Political Stability and Economic liberalization on Economic Growth in Selected Developed and Developing Countries. Quarterly Journal of Growth Research and Economic Development, 16, 53-72 (In Persian).
- Shaygani, B., & Abdollahi Arani, M. (2011). Investigating Financial Stability in Iran's Banking Sector. Quarterly Journal of Economic Queries, 16,147-167 (In Persian).
- Gennaioli, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (2012). Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility, ournal of Financial Economics, 104(3), 452-468.
- Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalisation, stockmarkets and economic development. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 771-782.
- Siregar, M. (1992). Financial Liberalization, Investment, and Debt Allocation. Unpublished Pd. D. Dissertation, Boston University.
- Soedarmono, W., Machrouh, F., & Tarazi, A. (2011). Bank Market power, Economic Growth And Financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks. Journal Of Asian Economics, 22(6), 460-470.
- Stiglitz, J., Sen, A., Fitoussi, J.-P. (2009). Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress.
-Tabak, B. M., Fazio, D. M., & Cajueiro, D. O. (2013). Systemically Important Banks and Financial Stability: The Case Of Latin America. Journal Of Banking & Finance, 37(10), 3855-3866.
- Tabak, B. M., Fazio, D. M., Karine, C. D. O., & Cajueiro, D. O. (2016). Financial Stability And Bank Supervision. Finance Research Letters, 18, 322-327.
- Taghavi, M., & Amiri, H.,& Mohammadian, A. (2010). Financial Development and Economic Growth in MENA Countries with Using of Dynamic Combined Data Model (GMM). Journal of Financial Knowledge of worthy papers Analysis, 10, 63-82 (In Persian).
- Vorahami, V., & Jahavandi, S., & Dashtbar Farooja, S. (2015). Investigating the relationship between economic growth, banking sector development and macroeconomic variables using panel VAR method, The Case study of group of D8 countries. Quantitative economics quarterly, 12, 39-65 (In Persian).