تعیین عوامل اقتصادی ـ اجتماعی مؤثر بر مخارج برق خانوارهای روستایی ایران با استفاده از نقشه‌های خود سازمان‌ده دسته‌ای

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد قزوین

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

3 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

چکیده

امروزه برق به عنوان یکی از زیرساختهای توسعه کشورها مطرح است و همواره مصرف آن در طی سال‌های اخیر با افزایش مواجه بوده است. مصرف برق در ایران همواره بالاتر از سطح استانداردهای جهانی است، علاوه بر این در سال‌های اخیر افزایش جمعیت، مهاجرت روستاییان به شهرها و ارتقا سطح زندگی آنها، توسعه شهرها و فعالیت­های صنعتی، کشاورزی و خدمات، تقاضای برق را بیش از پیش افزایش داده است. ارتقاء سطح رفاه روستاییان اگرچه برای جلوگیری از مهاجرت آنها به شهرها به عنوان یکی از مشکلات کشور کافی نیست، اما شرط لازم می باشد. بنابراین تامین برق و مدیریت مصرف آن در استمرار برق­رسانی به روستاها با توجه محدودیت طرف عرضه و شدت گرفتن آن به دلیل وقوع خشکسالی پیاپی در کشور در سال‌های اخیر از اهمیت برخوردار است. به همین دلیل، در این پژوهش به شناسایی عوامل اقتصادی- اجتماعی موثر بر توابع مخارج برق خانوارهای روستایی در فصول مختلف سال پرداخته شده و برای انجام این کار از روش نقشه‌های خود سازمانده دسته­ای استفاده شده است. نتایج بدست آمده حاکی از این است که در مجموع 2 عامل کمی و ۱۳ عامل کیفی در سه سطح تاثیر­گذاری بر مصرف برق خانگی روستاییان شناسایی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determination of Economic and Social Factors on of Electricity Expenditure for Rural Households in Iran: Batch Self-Organizing Map Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Neda Bayat 1
  • Vida Varahrami 2
  • Ali Asghar Salem 3
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Accounting Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin Branch, (Corresponding Author)
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba`i University
چکیده [English]

Today, electricity is considered as one of the countries' development infrastructure, and its consumption has been increasing over the past years. Electricity consumption in Iran is always higher than global standards. In addition, in recent years, population growth, migrating villagers to cities and improving their living standards, urban development, and industrial, agricultural and service activities have further increased electricity demand. Promoting the welfare of villagers is not enough to prevent them from migrating to cities as one of the country's problems, but a condition is required. Therefore, electricity supply and management of its consumption in the continuation of electricity supply to the villages is important due to the limited supply side and intensification due to the successive drought in the country in recent years. For this reason, in this research, the identification of socioeconomic factors affecting the functions of household electricity expenditure in different seasons of the year has been investigated. To do this, self-organized maps have been used. The results show that a total of 2 quantitative factors and 13 qualitative factors were identified in three levels of influence on the household electric power consumption of the villagers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rural Households
  • Electricity consumption
  • Batch Self-Organizing Map
  • Socio - economic Factors
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