بررسی اثرات سرریز صنعتی شدن بر بیکاری در استان‌های ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه رازی

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه رازی

3 کارشناس‌ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه رازی

چکیده

یکی از مشکلات اصلی اقتصاد ایران، نرخ بیکاری بالا است. به همین دلیل شناخت عوامل موثر بر بیکاری گامی موثر برای کاهش اثرات نامطلوب اجتماعی ناشی از بیکاری است. مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از داده‌های استانی برای دوره زمانی 1385 تا 1394 و رهیافت اقتصادسنجی فضایی به بررسی اثرات سرریز صنعتی شدن بر بیکاری استان‌ها می‌پردازد. شواهد حاصل از برآورد الگو نشان می‌دهد که توسعه صنعت و رشد اقتصادی اثر منفی و معناداری بر بیکاری دارد. اما اثر جمعیت بر بیکاری مثبت و معنادار است، به طوری که یک درصد افزایش در صنعتی شدن و تولید باعث کاهش نرخ بیکاری به اندازه 089/0 و 098/0 درصد می‌شود.  اثرات سرریز صنعتی شدن بی‌معنا است و این ناشی از عدم توسعه بنیادی و زنجیره‌ای صنعت در استان‌های ایران است. بنابراین توسعه صنعت در هر استان براساس مزیت نسبی و سیاست آمایش سرزمین، بهبود کیفیت سیستم آموزشی برای توانمند ساختن نیروی کار از جمله سیاست‌های موثر برای کاهش بیکاری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Industrial Spillover on Unemployment in the Provinces of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Falahati 1
  • Azad Khanzadi 2
  • Kazhal Yasami 3
1 Associate Professor of Economic, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, (Corresponding Author)
2 Assistant Professor of Economic, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi university
3 MA in Economic, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi university
چکیده [English]

One of the main problems of Iran’s economy is the high unemployment rate. Thus, recognizing the factors affecting unemployment is an important step to reduce the social undesirable effects of unemployment. The study investigates the spillover effects of industrialization on unemployment by using the provincial-level data for the 2006-2015 period and the spatial econometric approach. Evidence from the model estimation shows that industrial development and economic growth have a negative and significant effect on unemployment, but the effect of the population on unemployment is positive and statistically significant, as a one percent increase in industrialization and production, the unemployment rate is reduced by 0.089 and 0.098 percent respectively. The spillover effects of industrialization are negative and insignificant and this is due to the lack of fundamental development of industry in the provinces of Iran. Therefore, the development of industry in each province based on relative advantages and land-using policy, improving the quality of the educational system to empower the workforce is the effective policies for reducing unemployment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Industrialization
  • unemployment
  • Spatial Econometric
  • Iran Provinces
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