اثرات تلاطم‌های نرخ ارز بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش صنعت‌و معدن در ایران در شرایط تحریم‌های یک‌جانبه و چندجانبه

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

در سند چشم­انداز، بخش صنعت و معدن به عنوان موتور محرکه رشد اقتصادی پیوسته، باثبات و پرشتاب در نظر گرفته شده است، اما اقتصاد ایران در ادوار گذشته با تلاطم­های ارزی مواجه بوده است که بخش صنعت را نیز تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. تلاطم‌های ارزی از کانال‌های مختلفی می‌تواند تولید، سرمایه‌گذاری، اشتغال و رفتار قیمتی بنگاه‌های صنعتی را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. بنابراین، شناخت این کانال‌ها می‌تواند مکانیسم‌های اثرگذاری تلاطم‌های ارزی بر بخش صنعت را مشخص کند. بر این اساس، مسأله اصلی این پژوهش تحلیل اثرات تلاطم‌های نرخ ارز بر ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت و معدن در ایران در شرایط تحریم است که شرایط تحریم از طریق ورود متغیر مجازی در الگو در پژوهش لحاظ شده است. همچنین برآورد الگو با استفاده از الگوی خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های گسترده در دوره زمانی (1395-1347) صورت گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از برآوردهای صورت گرفته در بلندمدت بیانگر این است که تحریم‌های شدید از طریق ایجاد تلاطم‌های نرخ ارز اثرات منفی و معناداری بر رشد ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت و معدن داشته است. همچنین، نرخ رشد انباشت سرمایه، نرخ رشد نیروی کار، نرخ رشد تسهیلات اعطایی بانکی و نرخ رشد واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای بخش صنعت و معدن اثرات مثبت و معناداری بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش صنعت و معدن داشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Value Added of the Industrial and Mining Sector in Iran under Unilateral and Multilateral Sanctions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hojjat Izadkhasti 1
  • Elmira Qalambor Dezfuli 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, (Corresponding Author)
2 Masters of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

In the long-run vision, the industry and mining sector is considered as the engine of continuous, stable and accelerated economic growth, but the Iranian economy has been facing exchange rate volatility over the past few decades, which has affected the industry sector. Exchange rate volatility can affect the production, investment, employment and price behavior of industrial firms from various channels. Therefore, the recognition of these channels can determine the mechanisms of the effect of exchange rate volatility on the industry sector. Accordingly, the main object of this research is analyzing the effects of exchange rate volatility on the value-added of the industry and mining sector in Iran under sanction, that the sanction is included in the research by entering the dummy variable into the model. The model is estimated using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Model for the period 1968-2017. The results of long-term estimates indicate that severe sanctions through exchange rate volatility will have a negative and significant effect on the growth of value-added of the industry and mining sector. Also, the growth rate of capital accumulation, the growth rate of the labor force, the growth rate of bank lending facilities and the growth rate of import of capital goods in the industrial and mining sectors have positive and significant effects on the value-added of the mining and industrial sectors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Volatility of Exchange Rate
  • Value Added
  • sanctions
  • ARDL model
- Agenor, P. R. (1991). Output, Devaluation and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries. Review of World Economics, 127(1), 18-41.

- Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., Ranciere, R., & Rogoff, K. (2009). Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(4), 494-513.

- Aliyu, S. U. R. (2009). Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation (No. 16319). University Library of Munich, Germany.

- Amini, A. & Zare, S. (1396). Analysis of the Role of Exchange Rate and its Fluctuations on Iran's Industrial Exports. Economics and Finance, 11 (38), 120-99 (In Persian).

- Agdari, A.A., Haidari, H. & Abdollahi, M.R. (2017). Investigating the Factors Affecting the Value Added of the Industry and Mine Industry in Iran Using the Johansson Co-Modal Method. Majles and Strategic Quarterly, 24(89), 132-105. (In Persian).

- Balogun, E. D. (2007). Exchange rate policy and Export performance of Waze countries. MPRA Paper, 62(33), 23-44.

- Banerjee, A., and et al. (1993). Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of non-stationary Data. Advanced Texts in Econometrics. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

- Baradaran, V. & Mohammadi, S. H. (2016). Investigating the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Value Added of Industry Sub-Sectors Using the Econometric Approach. Journal of Commercial Research, 78, 59-29 (In Persian).

- Caruso, R. (2003). The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis. Peace Science and Public Policy, 9 (2), 1554-8597.

- Choi, B. Y., & Pyun, J. H. (2018). Does Real Exchange Rate Depreciation Increase Productivity? Analysis using Korean firm‐level data. The World Economy, 41(2), 604-633.

- Danesh Jafari, D., Sardar Shahraki, A., Asna-Aashari, H. & Hatami, Y. (2013). Impact of Exchange Rate Impacts on the Challenges and Prospects of Employment in the Industrial Sector of Iran. Journal of Strategic and Metropolitan Policies, 1(1), 104-93 (In Persian).

- Dhasmana, A. (2015). Transmission of Real Exchange Rate Changes to the Manufacturing Sector: The role of Financial Access. International Economics, 143, 48-69.

- Doxey, M. (1980), Economic Sanctions: Benefits and Costs. the World Today, 36(12), 484-489.

- Ebrahimi, S., Bayat, S. & Ghaderi, O. (2018). The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Production and Prices in the Industrial Sector of the Country: the Application of Micro Data and Industrial Production. Monetary and Banking Institute (In Persian).

- Eichengreen B (2007) The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth. Paper prepared for the Growth Commission, sponsored by the World Bank in association with the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the governments of the Netherlands, Sweden, and United Kingdom

Emadzadeh, M. & Baktash, F. (2005). Effect of Value Added Training on Industry, Science and Development Magazine, 16, 50-37. (In Persian).

- Eyler, R. (2007). Economic Sanctions: International Policy and Political Economy at Work. Palgrave Macmillan.

- Fadaei, M. & Derakhshan, M. (2015). Analysis of Short-run and Long-term Effects of Economic Sanctions on Economic Growth in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 5(18), 132-113 (In Persian).

- Galindo, A., Izquierdo, A., & Montero, J. M. (2007). Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America. Emerging Markets Review, 8(4), 284-298.

- Garshasbi, A. & Yousefi Dindarlo, M. (2016). The Effect of International Sanctions on Iran's Macroeconomic Variables. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 25, 182-129 (In Persian).

- Hufbauer, G. C., Jeffrey J. Schott, Elliott, K. A. & Oegg, B. (2007). Economic Sanctions Reconsidered. 3rd Edition, Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.

- Hufbauer, G .C.و & Oegg, B. (2003). The Impact of Economic Sanctions on U.S. Trade: Andrew Rose’s Gravity Model. International Economics Policy Brief 03-4, Institute for International Economics, Washington: 1-24.

- Izadi, H.R. & Izadi, M. (2008). The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on the Value added of the Industrial Sector Using the Kutani Model. Journal of Economic Research, 43(4), 318-283 (In Persian).

- Kamin, S. B., & Rogers, J. H. (2000). Output and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: an Application to Mexico. Journal of Development Economics, 61(1), 85-109.

- Katzman, K. (2015), Iran Sanctions. Congressional Research Service.

- Krueger, Anne (1998), “Why Trade Liberalization is good for Growth. Economic Journal, 108, 1513–1522.

- Mobini Dehkordi, M. & Mohammadi, T. (2014). Nonlinear Impact of Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Economic Growth with Oil and Non-Iranian Oil: GARCH-M Approach. Economic Journal, 14(55), 70-41. (In Persian).

- Mottaghi, S. (2018). Explaining the Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran in terms of Political Economy. Journal of the Islamic Revolutionary Approach, Twelfth, 42, 106-89. (In Persian).

- Motefaker­ Azad, M.A., Shahbaz zadeh Khayavi, A. & Anarjani Khosroshahi, A. (1393), Effect of Real Exchange Rate Factor on Export of Industrial Goods in Iran. Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 16, 212-189. (In Persian).

- Pesaran, M.H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514.

- Pesaran, M. H. and et al. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.

- Saadiah, M and Kamaruzaman, J (2008), Exchange Rate and Export Growth in Asian Economies. Journal of Asian Social Science, 11(4), 30-35.

- Rasekhi, S., Shahrazi, M. & Abdollahi, M. R. (2012). Asymmetric Effect of Exchange Rate and Volatility on Iran's non-oil Exports, Economic growth and development research, second year, No. 7. (In Persian).

- Schnabl, G. (2008). Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in small Open Economies at the EMU periphery. Economic Systems, 32(1), 70-91.

- Staneik, J. (2007). Determinants of Exchange-Rate Volatility: The Case of the New EU Members. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 57(9-10), 414-432.

- Talabaigi, A, Bahmani, M, S.A.M, Jalali Esfandabadi (2018). The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Growth of Total Factor Productivity in Terms of Financial Development. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Modeling, 9(2): 35-61 (In Persian).

- Xiangqian, L., & Guoqiang, D. (2005). The Influence of Fluctuation of Real RMB Exchange Rate to Chinese Import and Export: 1994-2003. Economic Research Journal, 5(003), 31-39.

- Yavari, K., Rezagholi zadeh, M. & Aghaee, M. (2011). Investigating the Effect of Foreign Exchange Policies on the Development of Non-Oil Export of the Country (Based on the Foreign Currency Policy and Monetary Exchange Policy). Economic Research, 11(2), 86-59. (In Persian).

- Yelena, T. and Faryal, Q. (2016). Global Oil Glut and Sanctions: The Impact on Putin’s Russia. Energy Policy, 90,140-151.