تعیین سطح بهینه اجزای بودجه دولت در چارچوب برنامه ششم توسعه اقتصادی: رهیافت الگوریتم کنترل بهینه تصادفی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری دانشگاه مازندارن، بابلسر، ایران

چکیده

بودجه دولت یک ابزار مهم سیاست‌گذاری برای دست یابی به اهداف تخصیصی، توزیعی و تثبیتی است که از کانال متغیرهای مخارج و درآمدهای دولت، عملکرد اقتصادی جامعه را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. بر این اساس همواره تعیین سطح بهینه اجزای بودجه دولت برای نظام سیاست‌گذاری از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. در این پژوهش مقادیر  بهینه بودجه دولت در چارچوب متغیرهای برنامه ششم توسعه، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی ایران (1400-1396)  با استفاده از روش کنترل بهینه تصادفی برآورد می‌شوند. در این راستا متغیرهای نرخ رشد اقتصادی، نرخ تورم، کسری بودجه و نرخ بیکاری متغیر هدف و نقدینگی، درآمد مالیاتی، مخارج مصرفی و تملک دارایی های سرمایه‌ای به عنوان متغیر کنترل در نظر گرفته شدند. نتایج تجربی حاصل از پژوهش نشان می‌دهند که اولاً مقادیر بهینه اجزای بودجه دولت از مقادیر مصوب برنامه ششم کمتر است و ثانیاً بیشترین شکاف بین مقادیر بهینه و مقدار مصوب برنامه ششم مربوط به تملک دارایی‌های سرمایه‌ای است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determination of the Optimal Level of Government Budget Components: Stochastic Optimal Control Algorithm Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Pourmohamad 1
  • Majid Maddah 2
  • Amirmansour Tehranchian 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economic, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran,
چکیده [English]

Government budget is an important policy-making tool to achieve allocation, distribution and stabilization goals that affect the economic performance of society through variables of government expenditures and revenues; accordingly, determining the optimal level of budget components is always important for the policy-making system. Therefore, the purpose of the current study is to assess the optimal level of government budget components for the period of the Sixth Economic, Social and Cultural Development Plan. To do so, the random optimal control approach was used in which the control amounts include tax revenues, government's consumption expenditures, government's acquisition of non-financial assets and liquidity. The result of this study shows optimal tax revenues, non-tax revenues, government's current payments, and government's acquisition of non-financial assets is less than the sixth plan amount and secondly, the largest gap between the optimal amounts and the amount of the Sixth Plan is related to government's acquisition of non-financial assets.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Government Budget
  • Government Spending
  • Government Revenue
  • Random Optimal Control
  • Sixth Plan of the Economic

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