تحلیل پویای الگوی تجارت ایران در چارچوب توافقات منطقه‌ای: رهیافت شبکه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

4 استادیار گروه کامپیوتر دانشکده علوم ریاضی و کامپیوتر دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

در مطالعه‌ی حاضر به تحلیل تجارت ایران با استفاده از رهیافت شبکه پیچیده و نقش سه موافقتنامه تجاری اکو، D8 و سازمان کنفرانس اسلامی درشبکه تجارت جهانی پرداخته شده است. بدین منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از داده‌های 150 کشور طی سال‌های 2019-2010 و به کارگیری رهیافت شبکه‌های پیچیده و استفاده از الگوریتم کشف اجتماع لوین، اجتماعات تجاری شناسایی و با استفاده از شاخص‌های مرکزیت، خوشگی و تراکم، جایگاه و موقعیت تجاری کشور ایران در اجتماعات تجاری منتخب بررسی و با شبکه موافقتنامه‌های تجاری با استفاده از معیار نظریه اطلاعات مقایسه گردیده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که کشور ایران طی دوره‌ی مورد بررسی در اجتماع تجاری آسیا-آفریقا قرار دارد. همچنین نتایج شاخص تراکم و خوشگی بیانگر بهبود روابط تجاری چندجانبه بین کشورهای مورد نظر بوده، ولی شاخص‌های مرکزیت نشان‌دهنده‌ی تنزل جایگاه کشور ایران در سال 2019 نسبت به سال 2010 در اجتماع تجاری مذکور است. همچنین معیار نظریه اطلاعات نشان‌دهنده‌ی آن است که موافقتنامه‌های تجاری نقش مهمی در تصمیم کشورها برای تجارت نداشته و در طی دوره‌ی مذکور این نقش در شبکه تجارت جهانی در حال تضعیف بوده است. بنابراین نقش قدرت‌های فرامنطقه‌ای در بهبود روابط تجاری کشور بسیار مؤثر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamic Analysis of Iran's Trade Pattern in the Framework of Regional Agreements: A Network Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elahe Rezaeian 1
  • Ahmad Salahmanesh 2
  • Hasan Frazmand 3
  • Masoumeh Kheikhahzadeh 4
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
3 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Computer Sciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده [English]

In present study, Iranian trade network has been analyzed in the world trade network using a complex network approach and the role of trade agreements in ECO, D8 and Organization of Islamic Cooperation. To achieve this purpose, the data of 150 countries during 2010-2019 has been investigated through complex network approach and Louvain Community Detection Algorithm. This lead to recognize trade communities and situation of Iran among some selected business communities using indices of centrality, clustering and density. In order to study the role of regional trade agreements, business communities were compared with the network of trade agreements through the use of Information theory criterion. The results showed that Iran has been in Asia-Africa trade community during the years. The findings related to density and clustering index demonstrated the improvement in multilateral trade relations between the countries. However, the centrality indices indicated the decline in Iran's position in 2019 compared to 2010 in the mentioned trade community. The criterion of Information Theory revealed that trade agreements have not played important role in countries’ decisions related to trade so that this role has been decreased within this period in the global trade network. Consequently, the importance of transregional countries in domestic trade is very vital.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • International Trade
  • Information Theory
  • Regional Trade Agreements
  • Network Theory

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