تأثیر تعاملی نهاد ریسک و پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در کشورهای منتخب اسلامی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

2 کارشناس‌ارشد مدیریت بازرگانی گروه مدیریت دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد بوئین زهرا، بوئین زهرا، ایران

3 کارشناس‌ارشد اقتصاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اراک، اراک، ایران

چکیده

رشد سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی با پوشش شکاف پس‌انداز- سرمایه‌گذاری، انتقال فناوری، انتقال دانش فنی و بهره‌گیری از مهارت‌ها و شیوه‌های نوین مدیریتی می‌تواند به تحریک رشد و توسعه اقتصادی در کشورهای درحال توسعه بیانجامد. در این راستا، تحقیق حاضر سعی دارد تأثیر تعاملی نهاد ریسک و پیچیدگی اقتصادی را بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در کشورهای منتخب درحال توسعۀ عضو سازمان همکاری اسلامی طی دوره 2018-2003 بررسی نماید. به همین منظور الگوی تحقیق با استفاده از داده‌های تابلویی و به روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته در دو حالت برآورد گردید. در حالت اول، تأثیر انفرادی شاخص‌های ریسک سیاسی، ریسک اقتصادی، ریسک مالی (جایگزین نهاد ریسک) و پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بررسی شد. در حالت دوم، تأثیر تعاملی ریسک‌های‌ سیاسی، اقتصادی و مالی با پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم بررسی گردید. نتایج نشان داد، تأثیر انفرادی ریسک‌های‌ سیاسی، اقتصادی و مالی بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی منفی و معنادار و تأثیر پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر آن مثبت و معنادار است. اما، تأثیر تعاملی ریسک‌های سه‌گانه و پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی منفی و معنادار است. به این معنا که افزایش ریسک‌های سه‌گانه از مجرای کاهش پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی تأثیر منفی و معناداری گذاشته است. این یافته‌‌ درس‌های مهمی برای کشورهای منتخب از جمله ایران دارد که با ‌کاهش ریسک کشوری و به تبع آن افزایش پیچیدگی اقتصادی، می‌توان ‌جذب سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی را شدت بخشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Interactive Effect of Risk Institution and Economic Complexity on Attracting Foreign Direct Investment in Selected Islamic Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolfazl Shahabadi 1
  • Sogand Bat 2
  • Ali Moradi 3
1 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
2 MA in Business Administration, Department of Management, Islamic Azad University (Buinzahra Branch), Buinzahra, Iran
3 MA in Economics, Islamic Azad University (Arak Branch), Arak, Iran,
چکیده [English]

The growth of foreign direct investment through covering the gap between saving-investment, the transfer of advanced technologies, the transfer of technical knowledge, and the transfer of managerial skills and new production methods can increase the economic growth in developing countries. In this regard, the present study attempts to investigate the interactive effect of the risk and economic complexity on foreign direct investment attraction in selected countries of the organization of Islamic cooperation (OIC) from 2003 to 2018. For this purpose, the research model was estimated using panel data and the GMM in two modes. In the first case, the individual effects of the indicators of political risk, economic risk, financial risk (as a proxy index of institution), and economic complexity on attracting foreign direct investment were investigated. In other case, the interactive effect of political, economic, and financial risk with economic complexity on foreign direct investment was investigated. The results show that the individual effect of political, economic and financial risks on ‌foreign direct investment is negative, and the effect of economic complexity is positive. However, the interactive effect of triple risks and economic complexity on attracting foreign direct investment is negative and significant. In other words, the increase in triple risks through the reduction of economic complexity has a negative effect on attracting foreign direct investment. This finding has important lessons for selected countries, including Iran, that reducing national risk and, consequently, increasing economic complexity, can increase the attraction of foreign direct investment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foreign Direct Investments
  • Risk Institution
  • Economic Complexity

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