اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر تحرک بین‌المللی نیروی کار با استفاده از پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی: بازبینی نظریه ماندل در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد بین‌الملل گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهیدباهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

افزایش همگرایی اقتصادی و گسترش روابط تجاری زمینه جابه‌جایی عوامل تولیدی بین کشورها را با هدف کسب درآمد بیشتر فراهم نموده‌ است. بر اساس نظریه ماندل و نیز طبق نظریه‌های سنتی تجارت، موجودی نابرابر و متفاوت عوامل تولیدی در کشورها باعث برقراری تجارت کالا و جابجایی عوامل تولیدی می‌گردد. در تحقیق حاضر به بررسی اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر جابه‌جایی بین‌المللی نیروی کار ماهر و غیرماهر در ایران طی چهار سناریوی کاهش 5 درصدی، 10 درصدی، 25 درصدی و 50 درصدی تعرفه‌ها با استفاده از پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی پرداخته‌ شده است. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از افزایش خالص (ورودی) مهاجرت در نتیجه آزادسازی تجاری کالاهای صنعتی و کلیه کالاهای وارداتی است که به منزله وجود رابطه مکملی بین آن‌ها است. در حالت آزادسازی تجاری کالاهای کشاورزی و افزایش واردات آن، جریان خالص (ورودی) مهاجرت برای نیروی‌کار ماهر افزایش و برای نیروی‌کار غیرماهر کاهش می‌یابد. با توجه به اثری که تجارت خارجی بر مهاجرت نیروی‌کار می‌گذارد، برای کالاهای واسطه‌ و سرمایه‌ای آزادسازی و تسهیل و برای کالاهای مصرفی کنترل واردات پیشنهاد می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Impact of Trade Liberalization on International Movement of Labor Using Global Trade Analysis Project: Revisiting Mundell’s Theorem in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ladan Ghodrati 1
  • Mostafa Karimzadeh 2
  • Mahdi Mostafavi 2
  • Ahmad Seifi 3
  • Mehdi Nejati 4
1 Ph.D Candidate in International Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Assistance Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
4 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Increasing economic integrity and expansion of trade across countries have caused international movement of production factors in order to achieve higher income. According to Mundell's theory and based on traditional theories of trade, unequal and different endowment of factors of production in countries cause the establishment of trade and the movement of factors. The present study investigates the effect of trade liberalization on the international movement of skilled and unskilled labor in Iran. Accordingly, trade liberalization is stimulated through four scenarios of import tariffs reduction of 5%, 10%, 25% and 50% in agricultural, industrial and the whole imported goods by using Global Trade Analysis Project. The findings of this research indicate the increase in migration due to the trade liberalization of industrial and all imported goods with the mobility of skilled and unskilled labor, verifying the complementary relationship. However, trade liberalization in the agricultural sector and skilled labor mobility are a complement, they are substitutes in terms of the unskilled labor movement. Considering the findings, liberalization in capital and intermediate goods and more restriction in consumption imported goods is suggested.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade Liberalization
  • Mundell’s Theorem
  • GTAP
  • Migration
  • Skilled and Unskilled Labor

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