بررسی اثر سیاست‌های پولی و ارزی با وجود صندوق توسعه ملی: رویکرد الگوی اقتصاد سنجی کلان ساختاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکترای اقتصاد

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

10.29252/jem.2022.227659.1766

چکیده

در این مقاله با لحاظ کردن نقش صندوق توسعه ملی در اقتصاد کشور، الگویی با چهار بازار کالاها و خدمات، پول، ارز (تراز پرداخت‌ها) و کار تنظیم‌شده است. معادلات الگو با استفاده از داده‌های سری زمانی سال‌های 1338 تا 1396 به روش همجمعی برآورد شده است. وجود یک رابطه تعادلی بلندمدت در تک‌تک معادلات برآورد شده با رویکرد نوار کرانه‌ای پسران و شین آزموده و مورد تأیید قرارگرفته است. صحت روابط برآورد شده به کمک مجموعه‌ای از آزمون‌های متعارف بررسی‌شده است و اعتبار الگو به کمک شبیه‌سازی پویا تأییدشده است. سپس در یک تحلیل موردی، اثر سیاست‌های پولی و ارزی به کمک الگو تحت دو سناریوی وجود صندوق توسعه ملی در اقتصاد کشور و عدم وجود آن مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که وجود صندوق توسعه ملی در عرصه اقتصاد سبب شده است تا میزان اثرگذاری سیاست‌های پولی و ارزی در راستای اهداف مورد نظر بسیار مناسب‌تر باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in the Presence of the National Development Fund: A structural Macro-econometric Model Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Norouzi 1
  • Mohammad Noferesti 2
  • Majeed Maddah 3
1 PhD in Economics
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this article, we have constructed a model with the inclusion of National Development Fund (NDF). The purpose of the model is conducting structural analysis and evaluating economic policies. The model consists of goods market, money market, exchange rate and labor market. The parameters of the model are estimated in the co-integration framework. Th (e annual data used are for the period 1960 - 2018. All behavioral equations are tested for the existence of co-integration by using Pesaran and Shin’s bond test approach. Not only each behavioral equations are confronted with a battery of statistical tests, but dynamic simulations are also used to validate the consistency of the model as a whole. Then, the effect of monetary and exchange rate policies with the help of model was examined under two scenarios: the existence of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its absence. The results show that the existence of the NDF has made the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policies in line with the desired gools much more appropriate.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Structural Macro-econometric Modeling
  • Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy
  • National Development Fund

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